FHG Set & Forget
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Here is a first half goal set and forget strategy I’ve decided to share the progress of due to the first couple of months going according to plan in terms of my initial theory. (Looking again, it’s about 4 weeks between February and March 2023)
I have always wanted to create a solid first half goal strategy and personally found this difficult to trade and never liked the variance that comes even with a good strike rate so thought I’d try the set and forget angle to simplify the whole process and eliminate the trading in/out aspect.
When I became a member of BTC I created an over 1.5 goals filter based on @Ryan Over 1.5 Goals Split Stake filter. I’ve tested this in slightly varying forms over time and it has always had a decent first half goal strike rate around 73-76% and always churned out more selections than I could handle.
What with another test I’ve been working on and the Tomasz Over 1.5 Goals strategy @Martin has talked about recently working on the principle of laying no higher than 3.50 to minimise loses combined with a strike rate of plus 70-71% to be profitable I thought I’d see what my over 1.5 goals filter selections had in the way of first half over 0.5 goals odds.
Turned out there was a decent amount of selections a month that had odds 3.0 or below to lay so began testing these as set and forget with the aim/hope that I’d get a strike rate of 70-75% on the strength of the filter’s past first half goal strike rate.
So far so good after almost 2 months and 60 selections it’s striking at 72-73% and 12 pts profit. Hopefully this is going to continue.
I thought i would also test another new and far more basic first half goal filter alongside this to see how it did. This is initially looking very bad for a first half goal due to loses so could be one to flip and back under 0.5. (I have given this up to concentrate on just the one FHG strategy).
Both filters have minimum over 1.5 goals odds criteria (=>1.38) which most of the time makes sure the first half goal over 0.5 odds on selections are 1.50+ To back -3.0 to lay in this case.
Below is the link to the spreadsheet where I’m tracking both strategies and the filters are also there for anyone who’s interested.
I won’t be posting selections in the blog but the spreadsheets will be updated daily/as and when there are selections.
Feel free to comment, advise, improve on what I’m doing if you wish.
** I have, and am only testing these filters and do not advise trading these with any money for now. They need more time **
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10LNCl0xeGg_2hSulsX-7yik31Dule3SswUnEPryE18k/edit?usp=sharing
FHG S&F 70-75% (Sheet 1) Also Sheet 1a for SHG Under 1.5 S&F)
0_1679409550935_filter-settings.txt 2.json
(First version of the above filter)
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A portfolio of strategies is definitely the way to make this a profitable game
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@Nick-Allan Yes I’m still testing the lay under 3.5 on the SHG thread. I’ll post you a reply over there
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3874/first-blog-second-half-goal-any-score-line -
@Taff-Phillips Yeh totally understand.
I guess there's so many variations, I'm always looking to find new ideas/variations. I get the feeling based on my own experience that 1 strategy wont keep performing all the time, so always trying to find new ones, or better ways to profit from what I've got.
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So what I call a 'scratch' trade is where I enter a position that goes in to profit but then I trade out for no profit due to time decay before the bet settles. So for example if I trade Over 1.5 Goals I normally have 2 entry points, 1.6 and 1.9 odds. If these get matched and then I get 1 goal I might choose to stay in the trade rather than green up as I expect the second goal. But if one doesn't come by around the '60 mark my hedge out positon is back to £0. If I trade out here then its what I call a 'scratch' trade.
The scenario where the odds don't ever reach my required entry is just a no trade for me. Say for instance I normally play the FHG market by laying HT 0-0 at odds of 2.5 which happens around the '20 mark but a goal comes after '10. This is just no trade and that's the scenario that was frustrating me as I felt I was missing out on profit.
Hope that makes sense.
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@Taff-Phillips said in FHG Set & Forget:
I always traded by a mindset that a trade where you don't lose money is a winner so a scratch trade has never bothered me that much. What I was really becoming frustrated with was the amount of times my picks were not hitting the required odds to trade but were producing goals early. This was then a trap for me to think about over trading which ended up costly to my balance sheet! This removes that urge and hopefully helps me stick to purely those picks that come out of my filter.
Top work mate - I think this is exactly what the BTC is all about. Trading can be a lonely old game so its great to have people to bounce ideas off and learn from.
@Taff-Phillips if Im following correctly, I do something similar with U1.5 lays. I wont trade above 3.0, often enter with half stake, then the rest below 2.8. Was finding that was working, especially last summer in South America
However of late, the U1.5 lays have not been great, so keen to hear other trading angles.
So a scratch trade is a selection you would take but comes in before your odds threshold so you don't get matched? Have you found much success with that on FHG? My worry was if strike rate showed 65% for example, that included all winners, not all matched winners, so actual strike rate of matched trades was below, hence not as profitable.
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@Chris-King do you still record the U3.5 lay and trade it after 50% stake return? Looking at your spreadsheet the SR for over 3.5 is 22.3% so just wondered if you were still tracking it and whether it was successful? I know you spoke about laying U2.5 using the same strategy as the time decay would be faster in exiting the trade?
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@Taff-Phillips Good point’s. I struggled a little with scratch trades but always knew the way of thinking you’ve described was the right way to treat them. Goals before the required odds was another factor I was really frustrated with too.
My outlook on trading now is so much more patient than it was when i started. Now i see and treat it just as method of investing with a really fun element (in that it’s in sports), and placing bets is a part of the process of that investment which has helped with scratch trades and loads of other aspects.
Definitely is, BTC has done wonders. Cheers, hope you can get something out of this thread
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I always traded by a mindset that a trade where you don't lose money is a winner so a scratch trade has never bothered me that much. What I was really becoming frustrated with was the amount of times my picks were not hitting the required odds to trade but were producing goals early. This was then a trap for me to think about over trading which ended up costly to my balance sheet! This removes that urge and hopefully helps me stick to purely those picks that come out of my filter.
Top work mate - I think this is exactly what the BTC is all about. Trading can be a lonely old game so its great to have people to bounce ideas off and learn from.
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@Taff-Phillips Hope it improves things for you. For me i was about to give up on FHG because I couldn’t find an angle or any approach that gave consistent positive results to the point i couldn’t see any other way to do it than being in for the whole half because of missing so many goals. An odds range on this is also vital to it’s success. @jon-kinnear approach also does this in a really unique way and hopefully really beats the market.
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@Fraser-cord Hi, and thanks. You’re welcome. Yeah Argentina’s leagues I’ve often heard are avoided in strategies. It is too early to discard anything at this time. I am one to give a filter a thorough test with minimal adjustments if any for quite a while if it shows promise especially if the selection volume isn’t high. You’re right though, definitely one to keep an eye on so thanks for pointing this out
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@jon-kinnear
Think I might be the same as you in regards to odds in comparison to Chris. Most of my filter selections are not < 3 odds for HT Over 0.5 Lay.
So the usual staking method I employ is to Lay HT 0-0 @ max odds of 2.5. Pretty much the same as backing at 1.5 but my personal preference is to sell a market, I'm just happier doing it. The odds of 2.5 lay are usually there about '20 - '25 minutes.
But as you say, waiting that long is frustrating when there's an early goal.
So, what I have done now is add an extra 'odds' component to my current FHG Filter to highlight the games that meet the HT Over 0.5 Lay @ < 3 pre kick off.
Some of my normal FHG filter games are just outside the odds, so I can still use your staking plan by waiting until about '4 - '5 minutes before the initial Lay.
I'll keep you posted on how I get on with my picks
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@Taff-Phillips Yeah i know the frustration of early goals going against you, for my own FHG strategy i used to lay over 1.5 FHG at KO then aim to back for double the stake on 15 mins, i was gaining a bigger edge doing this but some of the runs of games with early goals was hard on the soul, as each time a goal before 16 mins was costing me 0.8-1.00 Points each time.
the odds are lower for my FHG compared to Chris's, but the wins to losses are 50/50 with there being slightly bigger odds on the winners, which means all games with early goals are just pure profits on top of the edge i already have.
But as Chris rightly points out, there is no way to know if results will continue to be the same.
Let me know how you get on with it, i'm always interested in FHG strats they are favourite markets to trade- In and out after 15 mins, job done.
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@jon-kinnear
Noticed this post recently and got to say I think its great!! I am going to give this a go on my FHG Selection Filter to see how it compares to my current staking plan. I too, at times have become frustrated with missing out on a trade by minutes because of an early goal in a game and this is a great way to combat this.
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@Chris-King I'm also following the thread and like others, been impressed so far. Cheers for sharing.
I have noticed (although very early days) how poor Argentina have performed. This is also on the back of Argentina being removed from a few members filters in the past (I think), its one I've always avoided. Clearly its too early to discard, but might be one to keep an eye on unless others have data showing something different.
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@jon-kinnear said in FHG Set & Forget:
@Chris-King I think this is a really good set of filters, better than mine even. So far after just 1 day its 8.31 points ahead from my testing, only 5 qualifiers
3 early goal wins, Renofa yamaguchi made a 5.31 point profit, which made getting up at 5am worth it. scratch on the dundalk game and avoided the loss on the huracan game due to the odds being under 2.7.interesting results indeed, looking forward to seeing further results
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@jon-kinnear said in FHG Set & Forget:
@Chris-King I think this is a really good set of filters, better than mine even. So far after just 1 day its 8.31 points ahead from my testing, only 5 qualifiers
3 early goal wins, Renofa yamaguchi made a 5.31 point profit, which made getting up at 5am worth it. scratch on the dundalk game and avoided the loss on the huracan game due to the odds being under 2.7.Wow, that’s a brilliant start. Thanks for updating. Hopefully the filter stays true to it’s past stats for your approach. This is looking like something I’d want to test/trade ultimately
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@Chris-King I think this is a really good set of filters, better than mine even. So far after just 1 day its 8.31 points ahead from my testing, only 5 qualifiers
3 early goal wins, Renofa yamaguchi made a 5.31 point profit, which made getting up at 5am worth it. scratch on the dundalk game and avoided the loss on the huracan game due to the odds being under 2.7. -
@jon-kinnear This is sounding better all the time.
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@Nick-Allan Thanks, i wil do. this is going to be a fun experiment.
Ive also noticed that any selections under 2.70, are not doing so well.
if i remove these for my in play variation of the strategy, so far the results would be.
34 early goal wins +34 points
22 2 goals after 15 mins wins +110.00 points mininmum ( been tracking games with similar odds profiles over last few days min odds ive seen for over 1.5 fhg on 15 mins is 5.30)
26 losses -78 points
the rest are all scratch trades
