Team Simmonds Journal!
-
1 March 2023
So we're all up to date now with my journal! The trip to Portsmouth was bad! I didn't get much done other than prepare Gary for the trip to Crown Court in London (Which did not go his way) I really don't know where he goes from here! (But that's another story)
Nathans had some up's & downs whilst I've been away & we've ended up back in a loop where we chase a loss! A staking strategy that's cost us in the past, I've been convinced that its too dangerous & requires either tiny stakes else a long loosing run will wipe your bank out!
I think we're both on the same page now, that the only way foreword is to find strategies that over time will be profitable on level staking and from the positions I've recorded since 29th Jan 2023 we would have made around 40 points!
We carried out a review of the Favourite strategies & made them more profitable according to back-testing & score!
I'm a bit worried that leading into Cheltenham might be skewing our results a bit & we do plan to carry out a monthly review of all strategies!Away from Horse Racing We've been looking at getting some Football Strategies working for us! however, the Football Side of BTC is quite different in the way it works than the Horse Racing is! SO its a learning curve again & I need to hit the videos!
-
2nd Feb 2023
3 Good bot testing days, true; there very simple bots only 1 Rule, 1 Action & a couple of conditions, but there working!
Off to Gary’s on 2nd so not sure how much time I’ll have to devote to this while I’m trying to dig him out of his own shitty mess! But, if possible, I’ll run the bots each day whilst I create something for Course & Distance! Where a runner has to be named!So, I’m in Portsmouth for the best part of 2 weeks, not sure how much I’ll get done on strategies & analysis whilst I’m down here, but we got Nathan set up with FairBot 15 day trial & all the Favourites Bots which will keep him happy while I’m away!
Fingers crossed everything goes in his favour, we've both had losses to deal with! And the poor run he’s had on C&D winners hasn’t helped so.. -
27 Jan 2023
So today it’s live testing on the Fairbot, there’s 3 Legal AW meetings and 1 Jumps at Doncaster, also a NHF at Huntington.
There’s a couple of things you can’t exclude with FairBot such as Class & course, so it’s a manual process which should get slicker with time! -
21 Jan 2023
So, the last week has been spent on checking, testing, questioning & more checking! We got Nathan onto BTC today & the plan is to go in with FairBot tomorrow & prep for going live testing!I think I've got enough in place now to be able to get this thing, I'm due to be away for a couple of weeks from next week, going to Portsmouth to help prep Gary for his court case! 14th Feb & the rest of life will be on hold until I'm back home.
Spreadsheets are done, I've figured out my routine for creating & testing strategies & thought eh FairBot tutorial is a bit dated, the software itself is pretty simple to use for single rule strategies!
-
@ryan Yeah, It's like I want to say I should have done this years ago! but hey. the time is now!
-
15 Jan 2023
The last few days has been more playing with the Strategy Builder, and after activating all 6 of the pre-set strategies there seems to be a definite lack of qualifiers?I downloaded Johns Zero Rated DOB Strategy but Nathan & I are a bit confused about how the results are coming out? The idea is that you back a horse which has come in on previous races, so maybe a front runner or a pacey leader type horse, but were getting better results from zero pace rated horse!
1.1. Strategy Results √
We created a couple of Favourite Strategies:
By splitting out the different race types & then drilling down into making them profitable! So we have an All Weather, Chase, Hurdle, and National Hunt Flat strategies that are all profitable on the back testing!Made a bit of a f**k up during the last few days! I was mucking around with the strategies trying to get the Individual result up where we’ve been having issues with the Scope Rule!
I ended up deleting all of them, instead of just the version I didn’t want! So today is to get everything back to where it was at end of play yesterday!
Starting with the Favs list, but this time I’ll chose courses based on ROI first, then Profit! I’ll take a 5% ROI as long as there’s decent Profit? -
WOW I'm buzzing to see this, I am so happy that you've taken this on.
You've hit the nail on the head as well, you aren't doing this for you.
It's for Neal.
I love that.
How does it feel to write this sentence ... 'I’m committed to this, for the first time in my life I have a bank, the time & the commitment all at the same time!'
That one?
-
11 Jan. 2023
So in-between the studies & Grandad’ing duties I’ve been working on the spreadsheets, its work in progress.
2.8.1. Simple Rules √
2.8.2. Scope Rule √
2.8.3. Betting Rules √
This is going to take some study, to get good with all of the functionality in the Strategy Builder! There’s more here than I imagined & it keeps blowing me away!
I’m going to re-watch some of the tutorials especially 10 & 11 but I don’t want to get hung up on having everything analysed to the Nth degree, trying to know everything before doing anything? So, I think tomorrow I will choose a couple of the pre-sets & get them activated for my own testing! -
This post is deleted!
-
10 Jan. 2023 Super Trader Step 2 – In-Play
I did of course watch this on 6th Jan when I joined the group but Step 1 hadn’t really sunk in, so here we are again.Action
- Think about entry & exit & other rules of the trade!
- What happened during the trade!
Ryan is clearly football oriented but there’s plenty of metrics to track in other events! So, the what happened during the trade may differ in footy than say in horse racing or dogs but it’s still very relevant.
My first strategies are going to be bet & forget, the golden goose is not having to do a ton of research & not having to have amassed a knowledge bank in order to make the picks, the picks should pick themselves I.E Favs, 2Favs, Beaten Favs, Pace, C&D etc.Hence the entry & exit points will be initially & generally pre-race & post-race. The lag between what’s actually happening on the ground & the event stream are too far apart to be able to react to an in-race mile-stone like a horse interfering with another, going off the bridle, hitting a fence, Jockey errors! & The myriad of other metrics which will show in the price action before they happen on your screen!
In most if not all sports there is volatility in any market where there is a significant event! Like a Goal, a Try, a Set to Love, or an Eagle. You see this volatility before you see the event on screen!
There’s a lot of room between being bet & forget trader or being a bit more labour intensive & watching the price action type trader. I see pro’s & cons in both & both need some research & time investment.In my eyes, bet & forget needs you to have done some stats analysis, it doesn’t necessarily need you to have a great knowledge of the sport E.G. Horse racing about 30% of Favourites win! 21% of 2nd Favs! And the implied probability of the shorter odds means its not too difficult to pick a winner! Any fool can pick 2/9 Favourite in a 4-horse race! The question is “Should I pick It”?
Even if you get proficient with reading the price action, you’re never going to be right 100% of the time, just like your stats wont bear out all of the time!
I wonder if there are any books or other reading materials on Price Action?
I’ll do some work on the spreadsheet download from the lesson!
I want to have a look at Step 3 before I do anything else, but I’ve done some research & I’m fairly much decided on FairBot for placing the positions!Step 3
Action-
Watch Football Software Training Vids (Not Done)
Football vids will have to wait whilst I get the 1st Horse Racing Strategy in play. I will trade football, but I want to get the ball rolling on the donkeys first! -
Watch Horse Racing Stats Training Vids! So, 12 Videos, I kind of jumped the gun a little on the horse racing software, but then the guys know we all are going to jump in, however there’s more functionality than I realised! 12 Videos is more than I was expecting but they’re short, bite size & must be watched!
2.1. Intro to Betfair Racing Software √
2.2. The Meets View √
2.3. The Races View √
2.4. The Runner List √
2.5. Quick Filters √
2.6. Strategy Builder Overview √
2.7. The Strategy Bunker √
2.8. Rule Builder Overview √
Its apparent to me now, that I’m going to be referring back to these videos during my strategy building & testing! -
@neal-simmonds I love this, you have a great set of goals and I like the idea of your investment portfolio, keep us updated on it all and your outside interests too!
