1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid
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Had a bad month this month, which wiped out the previous 2 months profit, maybe the euro leagues coming to an end affected the results somewhat, but also changing my strategy mostly through entry point variations definatly cost me, if i had kept the strategy the same, regardless of which variation i would have done much better.
As i'm still collecting data for this strategy i'm not too bothered at this point, as my aim is to have a decent strategy that makes 5+ points a monthby the end of next year.
I have time and now is ok to make mistakes and learn from them.My data is still solid, I have a profitable strategy. I just realy need to stick to 1 set strategy.
What ive decided to do for June onwards.
Lay under 0.5 fhg b4 KO for £10.21
Lay over 1.5 fhg b4 KO for £10.00if no goal after 14 mins back over 1.5 goals for £20.00 before the 16th min
if early goal goes in i will trade out of the Lay over 1.5 goals for 65%-100% of stake resulting in a small win- evens
if 1 goal only after 15 mins scratch
if 2 goals after 15 mins win roughly 5.40 points average 65 wins 70 losses after 286 games ( still a small sample and dont know how the summer leagues will perform, but its definatly solid so far)
if 0-0 ht lose 3.60 points on averageby doing it this way i cover myself against early goals while at the same time adding value to the over 1.5 fhg.
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Update on my trading for this month,
Currently 4 points ahead for the month, despite making a bunch of mistakes..
have overtraded.
bet too big on selections that dont have enough data.
have randomly just had bets on certain games without any research.Despite my errors, my main strategy is doing well.
the lay 0-0 ht and back 1-1 ht strategy is underperforming since testing begun..
so far 2 winners and 8 losses, with 19 scratch trades. despite only winning 20% these are still a few points ahead.
average loser is under 2.50 average winner is 11.50 so getting over 4/1 on these sometimes as much as 6/1 so the value seems to be there, even whilst underperforming.Decided to create a new set of filters, giving myself a bit more to focus on, hopefully this will stop me from making some more errors.
Will be ineresting to see if i can create a second set of profitable filters using the knowledge gained from my origanal set.
The new filters will again be for FHG markets, as these are my favourite to trade, this will just be data collection to begin with. -
@martin
not enough data for those yet, but most yesterday were 10.00 -14.00 at 15 mins with the 0-0 ht being around 2.50 -2.70 but only tracked a few so cant get a solid number yet.could potentially be frustrating to bet these as lots of scatch trades, i dont mind scratches its just tedious sometimes when you get a long run of them.
another thing is liqiudity could rule out some selections as the HT CS market isnt too popular. -
@martin Yeah its Amazing, i even had a run of 11in row of which some were around 3.00 to back at KO.
i just uncovered another angle yesterday
i have 27 games that were 0-0 at 15mins then 1-1 at halftime and 50 games that went on to be 0-0 at halftime.
so today i will be tracking odds for
15 min entry
lay 0-0 ht
back 1-1htas the 0-0 should be under 3.00 and the 1-1 should be around 9.00 so theres a huge potential edge on these if they continue to perform as they have so far.
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@jon-kinnear said in 1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid:
@martin Mostly with over 1.5 FHG as a set and forget 96 wins 110 losses at average odds of 2.60 but for inplay trading its even more profitable.
But also if drawing at HT LTD or SHG is 72 wins to 15 losses
2 SHG if drawing at halftime is 49 wins to 15 lossesthere are so many angles, its a really potent set of filters for goals, which seems odd to me because its just basic stuff.
@jon-kinnear said in 1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid:
@martin Mostly with over 1.5 FHG as a set and forget 96 wins 110 losses at average odds of 2.60 but for inplay trading its even more profitable.
But also if drawing at HT LTD or SHG is 72 wins to 15 losses
2 SHG if drawing at halftime is 49 wins to 15 lossesthere are so many angles, its a really potent set of filters for goals, which seems odd to me because its just basic stuff.
Wow that FHG one is over £400 to £10 stakes set and forget!
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@martin Mostly with over 1.5 FHG as a set and forget 96 wins 110 losses at average odds of 2.60 but for inplay trading its even more profitable.
But also if drawing at HT LTD or SHG is 72 wins to 15 losses
2 SHG if drawing at halftime is 49 wins to 15 lossesthere are so many angles, its a really potent set of filters for goals, which seems odd to me because its just basic stuff.
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This started as an over 0.5 FHG Strategy. my data reveals this is marginal at best, though still profitable. I have a few other more profitable angles from the filters, and am tracking everything to find which ones are best for a steady long term profit.
This so far has been the most effective thing that i have done in terms of improving at trading, ive had 3 months of profit since starting this, my best month was april after dropping the daily email selections as i wanted to just focus on 1 set of filters and be solely responsible for my own wins and losses.
Became a bit boring posting selections on here everyday, so instead i will update on how my trading is going, if and when i have anything worth posting.
I feel like im on the right track to consider myself a semi-pro trader by the end of this year, all i really need to do is keep doing what im doing, keep tracking the data and keep watching BTC vids and learning/developing as i go.
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taking a break from this, will update results in a few weeks.
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These were the selections that qualified today. was a bit too busy to post them this morning
Academico 1.39 win
Fulham 1.44 lose
Hearts 1.39 win
Hoffenhiem 1.41win
Derby 1.36 lose
Deinze 1.38 win
Mlada boleslav 1.34 win
Slovacko 1.42 win
Pardubice 1.45 losenow at 61 wins to 19 losses after 80 selections.
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Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix 1.35 win
55 wins 16 losses
lots of potential trades tomorrow and sunday, have the weekend off work , so will be interesting getting to trade all of the weekend games for a change.
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Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix 1.35
Didnt expect this one to be within odds range.
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Nothing happening now until saturday with 21 potential qualifiers, with 13 more on sunday.
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Slavia Praha B v FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim 1.35 lose
54 wins to 16 losses
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1 selection today
Slavia Praha B v FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim 1.35
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Blackpool v West Brom 1.45 win
54 wins to 15 losses
