Potential Darts Strategy
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Good Evening All,
I've been researching ideas for darts trading strategies since the Worlds in December and have come up with an idea. Please note this is nothing more than an idea on which I'd like to gather feedback, not a tested/profitable strategy to go live with!
The premise is, in short format matches, throwing first is an advantage.
Most PDC events use the best of 11 format, and in a race to 6 legs throwing first must be an advantage as 6 holds wins you the match. Obviously the longer the match goes on, the higher the probability of a break of throw.
I've done some research on last years Premier League, which is only 1 season and therefore a small sample size, but it was only last year that the format changed.
Last year (2022) players throwing first won just 55% of the matches, which I felt was very low? Therefore suggesting that throwing first was not such an advantage after all? So I feel that there is potential for an odds based strategy here.
If 55% chance is 1.82 and the opposing 45% is 2.2 surely players throwing first who are greater than 1.82 are good back value? Or similarly players who throw second who are shorter than 2.2 are a good lay?
I made a note of the numbers from last nights matches:
DvdB threw first and won at 2.22
MvG threw first and won at 1.75
Wright threw first and lost at 1.55
Price threw first and lost at 1.5DvdB threw first and lost a 3.65 (although his record v MvG is terrible so easily avoidable with research that one)
Dobey threw first and won at 2.06MvG then threw first in the final at lost at 1.28!
So had you backed those throwing first at greater than 1.82, or backed against those throwing first at less than 1.82 you'd have results as follows (using £1 stakes):
DvdB won at 2.22 = £1.20 (after commission)
MvG won at 1.75 = -£1
Wright lost at 1.55 = £1.50
Price lost at 1.5 = £1.58DvdB lost a 3.65 = -£1
Dobey won at 2.06 = £1.04MvG lost at 1.28 = £3.23
Total night = £6.55 (and arguable you could have avoided the DvdB one £7.55). Dobey has a reasonable recent record v MvG.
Obviously I will continue to test, and it is probably only worth focusing on short format matches between 2 players who are very capable of beating each other etc, but do you think this might be worth researching? Have I calculated the math correctly etc?
All feedback welcome!
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Night 16 results:
Price threw first and won at 1.4 = -£1
Aspinall threw first and won at 2.12 = £1.12
Smith threw first and lost at 1.34 = £2.85
MvG threw first and won at 1.4 = -£1Aspinall threw first and lost at 2.90 = -£1
MvG v DvdB was a walkover, no bets.Price threw first and lost at 1.34 = £2.85
Overall sixteenth night returns: £3.82
League total return: £23.20
And that's all folks! Only the playoffs to go which is a different format.
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@Matt-Ayles Might be a cracker for the premier league though? But watching the other events you might spot something? Watching the markets and the board might spot something.
I cannot wait the premier league without thinking about this strategy either!
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So I've been expanding this theory into other tournaments, to see whether it's specific to the Premier League and makes it a once a year little strategy, or if it could be used more often.
I made sure I stuck to the original hypothesis, including the short format matches etc and so far in 2023 I have the following results (all to £1 stakes):
Bahrain only threw up 4 matches that fit the criteria, 2 winners, 2 losers, small profit of 50p.
The Masters threw up 8 matches, 5 winners and 3 losers, total profit of £2.61.
Now the UK Open is only short format in the Prelims, which does not include the "big name" players who are all seeded until later and longer format matches. However, I went through it anyway, to see if lower ranked players have the same kind of returns... they don't! Lots of matches, 126 in total, and a loss of £7.15.
The only other events that have been played this year are the European Tour Events. These are the bread and butter events where it's entirely short format until the semi finals. I had hoped therefore, given the regular opportunities, it would prove profitable... and it does! Barely. Including all matches with no restriction on player rank it throws up hefty losses. If you restrict it to matches played solely between players inside the worlds top 32, after 7 events (not matches!), you'd have profit of 96p for the year. If you restrict it further, to the top 16 players, it's only 30p for the year.
I do have a theory about this though. These players, although in high ranking positions, don't play each other that often (like the Prem players do), so the rankings may not be entirely accurate. They also have longer to warm up into the bigger matches by beating weaker players on the same day or weekend. Whereas the PL is one night, and only a maximum of 3 matches. It also restricts the match options to the QF's only as the seeded players inside the top 16 don't meet until then, and the SF - F are longer formats.
Unfortunately, the results are somewhat underwhelming so might be a premier league exclusive strategy.
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Night 15 results:
Aspinall threw first and lost at 3.0 = -£1
Dobey threw first and won at 2.12 = £1.12
MvG threw first and lost at 1.67 = £1.24
DvdB threw first and lost at 2.34 = -£1Dobey threw first and lost at 3.30 = -£1
Smith threw first and won at 1.67 = -£1Smith threw first and won at 2.10 = £1.10
Overall fifteenth night returns: -£0.54
League total return: £19.38
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Night 14 results:
Clayton threw first and won at 1.72 = -£1
Dobey threw first and won at 1.95 = £0.95
Aspinall threw first and lost at 2.42 = -£1
MvG threw first and won at 2.26 = £1.26Clayton threw first and won at 1.68 = -£1
Smith threw first and won at 2.32 = £1.32Smith threw first and won at 1.72 = -£1
Overall fourteenth night returns: -£0.47
League total return: £19.92
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Night 13 results:
Dobey threw first and lost at 2.6 = -£1
MvG threw first and lost at 1.4 = £2.25
Clayton threw first and lost at 2.8 = -£1
Aspinall threw first and won at 1.87 = £0.87Smith threw first and won at 1.55 = -£1
Aspinall threw first and lost at 3.45 = -£1Price threw first and lost at 1.7 = £1.30
Overall thirteenth night returns: £0.42
League total return: £20.39
Another night with more losers than winners, yet a small profit thanks to the odds rules.
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@matt-ayles I cannot watch Darts without thinking this now!!!
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@james-everard thank you. Its based entirely on odds which is why you can lose more than 50% each week yet still profit.
I have many questions to answer, like will it work in other tournaments if the format is short? The Prem players can all beat each other... so do you restrict other events to matches between 2 players in the world top 16 or 32? Or not at all...?
No answers there yet!
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@matt-ayles Been following with interest , seems a steady strategy so far
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There's 4 league nights to go before the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see if player motivation becomes a factor should they be unable to qualify for finals night.
Once it's finished I'm going to do some further player/odds analysis to see if there are any clear trends with certain players throwing first etc.
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Night 12 results:
Clayton threw first and won at 1.73 = -£1
Price threw first and won at 1.61 = -£1
DvdB threw first and won at 2.24 = £1.24
MvG threw first and lost at 1.40 = £2.40Price threw first and won at 1.41 = -£1
Aspinall threw first and won at 1.74 = -£1Price threw first and lost at 1.32 = £2.10
Overall twelfth night returns: £1.74
League total return: £19.97
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Night 11 results:
MvG threw first and won but against DvdB so ignore as previously mentioned.
Dobey threw first and lost at 3 3 = -£1
Wright threw first and won at 2.04 = £1.04
Smith threw first and won at 1.72 = -£1Price threw first and won at 1.84 = £0.84p
Wright threw first and lost at 2.42 = -£1Price threw first and won at 1.61 = -£1
Overall eleventh night returns: -£2.12
League total return: £18.23
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Night 10 results:
Dobey threw first and lost at 3.7 = -£1
Clayton threw first and won at 1.91 = £0.91p
Price threw first and won at 1.4 = -£1
Wright threw first and won at 2.86 = £1.86Clayton threw first and won at 3.05 = £2.05
Wright threw first and won at 3.1 = £2.10Clayton threw first and won at 1.84 = £0.84p
Overall tenth night returns: £5.76
League total return: £20.35
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Night 9 results:
Smith threw first and won at 1.6 = -£1
Aspinall threw first and won at 1.90 = £0.90p
MvG threw first and lost at 1.3 = £3.32
Price threw first and lost at 1.4 = £2.50Aspinall threw first and lost at 2.2 = -£1
Price threw first and lost at 1.4 = £2.50Smith threw first and lost at 1.50 = £2.00
Overall ninth night returns: £9.22
League total return: £14.59
Cracking night with the short prices all losing.
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@matt-ayles Thats mental!
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Night 8 results:
Wright threw first and lost at 3.85 = -£1
Aspinall threw first and won at 2.04 = £1.04
Price threw first and won at 1.66 = -£1
Dobey threw first and won at 2.52 = £1.52Aspinall threw first and lost at 3.0 = -£1
Price threw first and won at 1.5 = -£1MvG threw first and lost at 1.65 = £1.54
Overall eighth night returns: £0.10p
League total return: £5.37
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Night 7 results:
DvdB threw first and won at 2.16 = £1.16
Clayton threw first and lost at 2.3 = -£1
MvG threw first and won at 1.4 = -£1
Dobey threw first and lost at 2.72 = £1.72Price threw first and won at 1.5 = -£1
MvG threw first and lost at 1.28 = £3.56Dobey threw first and lost at 2.4 = -£1
Overall seventh night returns: £2.44
League total return: £5.27
