Creating a Trading Plan
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Hi BTC crew,
One of the main reason's I joined the forum was to learn how to build structure into my betting process. A reasonably new concept for me which I am still trying to get to grips with is creating a trading plan. Excuse the length of the post, as I am going to jot down my thought process on how I came to my odds conclusion.If we take the current round that started last night in the NRL (National Rugby League) in Australia. Earlier in the week I entered my perceived odds on a spreadsheet versus the odds of one of the big bookmakers here in Australia. Of the 8 matches to be played. I identified the 1st match as the biggest discrepancy. Sydney Rooster v South Sydney Rabbitohs. $3.20 vs $2.33 close to a $1 difference my estimate versus the bookies. I based my odds on the fact Souths had only been beaten convincingly by the one team this season. That was the first round of the competition by one of two unbeaten teams in the comp. Fast forward four rounds to last weekend. They played the 2nd unbeaten team in the comp who are currently top of the table who I might add are in superb form. Souths came back from a large deficit to give themselves a chance to win the match. Add to this they have forwards who have been out of form for three seasons suddenly playing as well as they did the year the won the comp in 2014. There is a nice balance of strength size and mobility to the team. The Roosters on the other hand have a fantastic team on paper. They came 2nd last season on the table and signed two of the best players in their respective positions in the competition. However, they have the highest error count in the competition this season. This makes them vulnerable meaning, if they're having a bad day error wise. They'll be ripe for the picking.
Anyway, I still had the Roosters as small favourites to win, however I was very confident in the +8.5pt handicap @ $1.91 Souths were paying.
Pre-Match I placed a bet on the +8.5 handicap. Watched the 1st half and noticed Souths were dominant even though the scores were tied. Placed bets on Souths @ $2.70 and $244 to win. Laid half my risk when Souths scored @ $1.65. Then laid the remaining @ $1.62 15mins later. Souths won the match 26-14. Was pleased with the outcome.
In terms of translating the above into a trading plan. I'm not quite sure how to do that. Is someone able to give me pointers on how a trading plan would look like using the info I supplied? I've never really incorporated stop losses into my betting before. How would I incorporate that as well. The attached pic are my estimates for the current round.
Cheers,
Bo
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