Alex's - one year to being a pro
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At the end of Nov I joined BTC to try and help my trading to see if I could give myself the option to go full time at in a years time.
For my first month I wanted to focus on "Set & Forget" strategies since I also have a full time job. 11/13 are in profit on their first month which is really positive. £2 stakes returned an overall profit of £78.26 with £218 staked. With a 35.9% ROI overall is a great start and something to build on for the future.
My plan for Jan
- Keep setting and forgetting everyday.
- Increasing stakes to £5
- Look into a late goal strategy
- FHG Inplay strategy.
Really excited for the next month let's see what is brings. People can view my tracker below and any questions just ask! Cheers, Alex
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit?usp=sharing
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@Alex-Rule Exactly the same happened to me in October . Just when you think you have cracked it with strategies that have performed well for a year then take a big hit.
It knocks your confidence so much so back paper trading my main one again (injury time goal) and still not looking good this month on this system -
@Alex-Rule good to read this update, it's always going to be a bit of a rollercoaster and like you say the mental game is the most challenging one!
Seems like you have a lot of positives though in your summary, although, I understand that is hard to see when you have a bad month.
Over the two years how many profitable months v losing ones?
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Cheers @Matt-Wood and @Richard-Latimer, I appreciate you sharing your own experiences and it's always good to be reminded that everyone goes through the same stuff no matter how far along the journey.
I think the big thing for me in the coming weeks in and months is to just slow down a bit and get out of my own head. Try not think about the days individually and look at the past and future to get the long view.
Despite my frustrations this has fuelled me to look at what's working and not working. See what angles there are in winning strategies slow down before jumping on what look like winners. Cool and calm thinking will prevail.
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@Alex-Rule Evening Alex
I'm echoing Richard here, although I am only something like 4 years in. I was flying this season until the last weekend of Oct, since then it has been very wobbly.
I am starting to see this is where the real ability in trading starts to come in. Now I am not complaining (trying not to anyway) since I am still in profit. Its just really hard to work on something, see it fly along and then take a nose dive eating into your profits. I guess this is where the mental toughness and discipline come in. As Richard mentioned, it is really easy to make sweeping changes and throw the baby out with the bath water. Much harder to step back taking a bigger picture view and let things happen.
I think Richard is spot on too when he says its easy when you know how. Find/create a system from the start that then proves itself over time and you will find the next one more easily.
Hang in there, its tough!
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@Alex-Rule I'm probably around 20 years in from when I got interested in betting. It's not easy or everyone would be doing it.
I had a great month last month.. Then this month I'm massively down and have been wobbling all over the shop so I know what you mean. Difference for me is that in the past I would have thrown out the baby with the bathwater instead of taking a step back, looking at things properly and realising things really aren't so bad.
It's a classic easy when you know how I think. You find success in one thing it will be easier to find success in another by looking at the same things in different ways. Before you find that success it's a bit like looking for a needle in a haystack.
You know it exists but it could be anywhere.
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Month 23 of trading
October was a pretty bad month for me overall. Old reliable strategies that I thought from previous results would continue to fly died off. A few very early promising strategies have also dived as soon as I went live with them.
I've done a lot of soul searching the last few weeks. I think its fair to say that after nearly 2 years this is probably the biggest wobble period I have had. I've not wanted to quit just yet, but have been wondering whether I have skill set and mental resilience to continue this forward.
I really thought I would be flying by now - and at points in relation to where I am I have been. But I also feel like it an age to turn profit and then poooof - it's gone in a single bad month. Is this the nature of the beast or have I been too overly confident in early signs of success and naively thought they would just continue?
I'll do a much deeper dive next month as will have been with BTC for 2 years at that point. But for now a summary below.
Highlights
- Early testing of new strategies looks promising. These mostly focus on looking at larger odds where the market seems very unsure of the outcome.
- I have 3x draw strategies. They are all showing profit after a few months testing.
- A new LTD strategy that is a variation of the OG LTD strat seems to be showing a better strike rate and could replace my old one if it maintains promise after more selections.
Lowlights
- Frustration at not being where I thought I should be - unsure if this is self imposed or I should be further ahead
- Strategies not continuing on their path and dipping heavily - this is amplified with increased stakes.
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Month 22 of trading
September was a real roller coaster for my strategies. Overall a loss which is frustrating as now 2 months on the bounce I have had losing months. They are only small so I need to do a bit of a deep dive as to if it's natural variance or if it's just the fact these strategies aren't as good as I had thought.
Highlights
- As a result of my strategies appearing to wane I have started to look at new markets and strategies and collecting data on these. I don't think I have done as much Youtubing or reading around strategy creation as I have recently.
- I'm currently exploring some back the draw games as the pricing for that outcome always seems to be overvalued which can be taken advantage of.
- I have also been looking at my successful strategies and trying to look at over markets for them. This basically means the same games can be used and exploited. E.g my over 2.5 goals strategy I'm testing I am also tracking the over 3.5 goals market to see if there is value. This means less work and more profit if it works out.
Lowlights
- I'm really struggling to get stuck into INPLAY trading. I think it's partly due to having a full time job still and buying a house. I just don't want/can't find the time to sit at a comp at the moment.
- Reliable strategies seem to be lagging a bit atm. Hoping for an October bounce back now the seasons are in full swing.
- Need to test some more strategies and get some inspiration for ideas.
I'm still very excited to keep going with trading and I know that with more testing and thinking outside the box I will make a success of it. I need to try new things and look for better value games. Take things slowly and not panic
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Month 21 of trading
August was a bit of a funny month for me. Overall there was a small loss across the month, but I'm not too worried about it and for the most park I put it down to variance maybe caused by the leagues ending and starting up again.
Highlights
- LTD 12 month worth of trading data now and over all it's up having made £511 over that period. Stake have increased from £5 to now £10 and I intend to increase if it keeps showing promise. Maybe £1000 for next year (crosses fingers)?
- I have been testing other set and forget strats that for the new season I can begin to go live with small stakes. The plan is to follow the LTD format and grow them over the next year.
- Inplay - I've been trying to focus more on inplay trading as I know there are larger rewards to be found here. I want to go live with a few strategies and see what can be done.
Lowlights
- Some of my strategies have started to lag a little which has been frustrating.
- I have probably jumped on a couple of strats as they are tailing off a bit which feels like sods law after you have 3 months of testing and winning!
- I'm finding inplay trading a little slower to get my head around and still need to figure out how I want to trade inplay.
I think for me the new season brings in new opportunities and I really want to seize them. I know I am a profitable trader now in the long term. I need to scale this year as I want to give myself options regarding work which is a long term goal of mine.
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@Alex-Rule That works 100%!
Am I allowed to use your reply 'cheers! Couldn't have done it without the help and support provided by BTC.
Watch this space, I will be posting some big numbers in the coming months
'In our marketing material I will blur out names and faces
Will just use Alex if you are ok with that -
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@Alex-Rule Oh get in!!! Thats what I was to see and hear
We need to get you on the podcast talking about it.
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
July was profitable again! Strategies back on track and it's all pointing to good signs for the winter leagues kicking back in soon.
Get in!
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Month 20 of trading
July was profitable again! Strategies back on track and it's all pointing to good signs for the winter leagues kicking back in soon.
Highlights
- LTD 11 months is at £510 profit! Starting from £5 to £8 stakes. This is huge and after Aug I will have 1 years worth of data. It will be be first traded strat to reach that mile stone, huge! I'll break down the plan for the next year at the end of the month once we have the final figs.
- I have started trading a BTTS strat that I collected a few hundred results on before going live. First month has a decent 12% ROI which is great. I'll have to keep tracking for another 2 months before deciding to scale.
- FHG strat that is showing good results early on. Needs more tracking.
- I'm collecting data on a lot more prematch and inplay strategies. I hope to able to go live with these very soon.
Lowlights.
- My LTD at half time stat has dropped off massively and I think it needs refining. I have done this and my thoughts seem to have been correct. Drilling down the games to focus on the better opportunities.
The takeaways from this month are that don't rush into strategies that show early promise, wait for more data and keep testing. I would also say look to refine strategies to improve them - this is working well for the LTD at half time strat.
I'm really excited about this month. A few milestones to be achieved and the return of winter football should only accelerate that process.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit?pli=1&gid=214365525#gid=214365525
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12893w4uBdzT0ac0phKa5zCPEXRzBBNsQxGHKEvJVAC0/edit?gid=2077789069#gid=2077789069 -
Month 19 of trading
June for me was a very good month. Profit again, if even just a bit. The real takeaway is now I am a profitable trader. I just need time to scale - this is really exciting as I feel like the hard work is now paying off. The sky's the limit now and I do feel I am about to head onto much bigger things very soon.
Highlights
- LTD Set and forget is back in profit! Just over 6 points profit -and ROI overall has increased to 4.2% so hoping it continues to climb again.
- SHG Sniper still does well the last few months. Checking the stats more has helped to decide whether to jump on or not.
- After several 100 selections of paper trading I am going live with £5 stakes on a BTTS strategy and a over 2.5 goals set and forget strat - exciting times.
Lowlights
- I was my own worse enemy and jumped on an over 3.5 goals lay strat having seen some early success. This cost a me a bit and I have now reverted to paper trading, rookie mistake!
- My LTD at half time strategy has taken a bit of pounding this month. Might just be a blip as it's only the 2nd month of small stakes but it needs looking at before scaling.
- Selections killed off with euros! Just as I feel I am ready to go live with new strategies I find that all the selections have vanished! Sods law!
- My FHG inplay strat is going well getting in after 15 mins!
Overall I am using the down time to create and test new strategies. A few of my older strats are coming up to one year old now and having that data is huge for future scaling! Roll on next season!
Cheers!
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@Ryan I think you are right. If I get rid of May's results I would trading up over 5% on a set and forget. Going forward I will look at the games left and if teams have anything to play for.
I'm hoping it rights itself in June with the summer leagues kicking in. Time will tell!
