Alex's - one year to being a pro
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At the end of Nov I joined BTC to try and help my trading to see if I could give myself the option to go full time at in a years time.
For my first month I wanted to focus on "Set & Forget" strategies since I also have a full time job. 11/13 are in profit on their first month which is really positive. £2 stakes returned an overall profit of £78.26 with £218 staked. With a 35.9% ROI overall is a great start and something to build on for the future.
My plan for Jan
- Keep setting and forgetting everyday.
- Increasing stakes to £5
- Look into a late goal strategy
- FHG Inplay strategy.
Really excited for the next month let's see what is brings. People can view my tracker below and any questions just ask! Cheers, Alex
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit?usp=sharing
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Month 22 of trading
September was a real roller coaster for my strategies. Overall a loss which is frustrating as now 2 months on the bounce I have had losing months. They are only small so I need to do a bit of a deep dive as to if it's natural variance or if it's just the fact these strategies aren't as good as I had thought.
Highlights
- As a result of my strategies appearing to wane I have started to look at new markets and strategies and collecting data on these. I don't think I have done as much Youtubing or reading around strategy creation as I have recently.
- I'm currently exploring some back the draw games as the pricing for that outcome always seems to be overvalued which can be taken advantage of.
- I have also been looking at my successful strategies and trying to look at over markets for them. This basically means the same games can be used and exploited. E.g my over 2.5 goals strategy I'm testing I am also tracking the over 3.5 goals market to see if there is value. This means less work and more profit if it works out.
Lowlights
- I'm really struggling to get stuck into INPLAY trading. I think it's partly due to having a full time job still and buying a house. I just don't want/can't find the time to sit at a comp at the moment.
- Reliable strategies seem to be lagging a bit atm. Hoping for an October bounce back now the seasons are in full swing.
- Need to test some more strategies and get some inspiration for ideas.
I'm still very excited to keep going with trading and I know that with more testing and thinking outside the box I will make a success of it. I need to try new things and look for better value games. Take things slowly and not panic
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Month 21 of trading
August was a bit of a funny month for me. Overall there was a small loss across the month, but I'm not too worried about it and for the most park I put it down to variance maybe caused by the leagues ending and starting up again.
Highlights
- LTD 12 month worth of trading data now and over all it's up having made £511 over that period. Stake have increased from £5 to now £10 and I intend to increase if it keeps showing promise. Maybe £1000 for next year (crosses fingers)?
- I have been testing other set and forget strats that for the new season I can begin to go live with small stakes. The plan is to follow the LTD format and grow them over the next year.
- Inplay - I've been trying to focus more on inplay trading as I know there are larger rewards to be found here. I want to go live with a few strategies and see what can be done.
Lowlights
- Some of my strategies have started to lag a little which has been frustrating.
- I have probably jumped on a couple of strats as they are tailing off a bit which feels like sods law after you have 3 months of testing and winning!
- I'm finding inplay trading a little slower to get my head around and still need to figure out how I want to trade inplay.
I think for me the new season brings in new opportunities and I really want to seize them. I know I am a profitable trader now in the long term. I need to scale this year as I want to give myself options regarding work which is a long term goal of mine.
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@Alex-Rule That works 100%!
Am I allowed to use your reply 'cheers! Couldn't have done it without the help and support provided by BTC.
Watch this space, I will be posting some big numbers in the coming months
'In our marketing material I will blur out names and faces
Will just use Alex if you are ok with that -
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@Alex-Rule Oh get in!!! Thats what I was to see and hear
We need to get you on the podcast talking about it.
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
July was profitable again! Strategies back on track and it's all pointing to good signs for the winter leagues kicking back in soon.
Get in!
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Month 20 of trading
July was profitable again! Strategies back on track and it's all pointing to good signs for the winter leagues kicking back in soon.
Highlights
- LTD 11 months is at £510 profit! Starting from £5 to £8 stakes. This is huge and after Aug I will have 1 years worth of data. It will be be first traded strat to reach that mile stone, huge! I'll break down the plan for the next year at the end of the month once we have the final figs.
- I have started trading a BTTS strat that I collected a few hundred results on before going live. First month has a decent 12% ROI which is great. I'll have to keep tracking for another 2 months before deciding to scale.
- FHG strat that is showing good results early on. Needs more tracking.
- I'm collecting data on a lot more prematch and inplay strategies. I hope to able to go live with these very soon.
Lowlights.
- My LTD at half time stat has dropped off massively and I think it needs refining. I have done this and my thoughts seem to have been correct. Drilling down the games to focus on the better opportunities.
The takeaways from this month are that don't rush into strategies that show early promise, wait for more data and keep testing. I would also say look to refine strategies to improve them - this is working well for the LTD at half time strat.
I'm really excited about this month. A few milestones to be achieved and the return of winter football should only accelerate that process.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit?pli=1&gid=214365525#gid=214365525
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12893w4uBdzT0ac0phKa5zCPEXRzBBNsQxGHKEvJVAC0/edit?gid=2077789069#gid=2077789069 -
Month 19 of trading
June for me was a very good month. Profit again, if even just a bit. The real takeaway is now I am a profitable trader. I just need time to scale - this is really exciting as I feel like the hard work is now paying off. The sky's the limit now and I do feel I am about to head onto much bigger things very soon.
Highlights
- LTD Set and forget is back in profit! Just over 6 points profit -and ROI overall has increased to 4.2% so hoping it continues to climb again.
- SHG Sniper still does well the last few months. Checking the stats more has helped to decide whether to jump on or not.
- After several 100 selections of paper trading I am going live with £5 stakes on a BTTS strategy and a over 2.5 goals set and forget strat - exciting times.
Lowlights
- I was my own worse enemy and jumped on an over 3.5 goals lay strat having seen some early success. This cost a me a bit and I have now reverted to paper trading, rookie mistake!
- My LTD at half time strategy has taken a bit of pounding this month. Might just be a blip as it's only the 2nd month of small stakes but it needs looking at before scaling.
- Selections killed off with euros! Just as I feel I am ready to go live with new strategies I find that all the selections have vanished! Sods law!
- My FHG inplay strat is going well getting in after 15 mins!
Overall I am using the down time to create and test new strategies. A few of my older strats are coming up to one year old now and having that data is huge for future scaling! Roll on next season!
Cheers!
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@Ryan I think you are right. If I get rid of May's results I would trading up over 5% on a set and forget. Going forward I will look at the games left and if teams have anything to play for.
I'm hoping it rights itself in June with the summer leagues kicking in. Time will tell!
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@Alex-Rule One of the things I will share with you is about the LTD after doing it for many many years I always had to look at it as a long term play because the variance on it would be horrible at times but over the course of the year and season it would work out well.
I used to drop certain types of teams (who had nothing to play for etc…) towards the end of the season as it brought up some strange results.
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Month 18 of trading
Another month ticked off and the May has been a real rollercoaster of a month. In summary I made a very, very small profit which is great for my consistency but I was hoping for more.
Highlights
- Inplay strats seem to be going pretty well over all. I'm trailing some LTD at half time stuff and it all seems to be going the right way. Need more data before I make any big increases in staking - currently £5 lays
- Master classes started and keen to keep up the practise going forward.
- Increasing the small stakes live tracking for a couple more set and forgets to see how they get on.
Lowlights
- My LTD strat dropped a whopping 10 points in May! I think this may have been down to the end of the winter leagues with a lot of teams playing on the beach football and putting in no effort. I may look to exclude from next year. Will see if the summer leagues right the wrong for June and will keep following.
Adding diversity is really paying off and I feel I am getting better at spotting angles for profit. I'm mixing set and forget with inplay and seems to be going well. At the moment it feels a little bit like 2 steps forward and 1 step back. But that's life! We carry on!
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@Martin cheers! I think since Jan I have now been in profit (even if it's marginal) each month. As I get more data I hope it should be a case of scaling more.
For inplay I have found it's all about goal timings.
I have a LTD at half time that looks for games where 0-0 at HT is pretty common - then add filters for 0-0 at full time and games ending in a draw at 20% or less. This means you are getting much better odds avg. 2.85 currently. You can leave this to run as well which is great maximise the number of games you can get on.
I also have a filter that looks for games that have had 2 goals in and I am expecting a 3rd after 70 mins. This is really promising so far avg odds of 1.83 currently and with more date and goal time recording I may look to split my stake to enter closer to 80 if the data suggests that's an idea to get closer to 2.0 odds.
I'm also test a FHG filter where a goal between 0-15mins is less than 50% - this means the odds are much better and again I may look to drip money into the market to increase my average odds.
I definitely feel that for me, inplay trading, I don't want to have to watch the market for 90 mins or even 45. By using the goal timings I know I am getting in a better position then the start of a game and can quickly take advantage of rising odds in short windows, meaning I can trade more games.
On top of this I am collecting data on more Set&Forget strats as they have serve me well. so far.
Fair bit of waffle above but if you have any questions then shout.
