Alex's - one year to being a pro
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Month 5 of trading.
April has been a real struggle for me (I take slight comfort in the fact that it seems to be same way for a lot of people). A pretty heavy loss this month for me down £79.85 which is a bit of a punch in the gut!
A few of my strategies seem to be slowing down and I hope this is just to do with variance.
Highlights
- Under 3.5 goals filter till maintaining a good level of profit with a 6.87% ROI currently.
Lowlights
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My Home Win at half time filter seems to have dropped off the edge of a cliff. Might be time to see if anything can be done to save it.
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Under 1.5 goals has taken a bit of a bit this month and has half the ROI it had last month which is very frustrating.
I have paper traded some inplay strategies for FHG and SHG at various entry points. I need to do more work on these to see if I can make them work for me with odds ranges.
I feel like with a full time job, set and forget and now inplay data collection it feels like a lot of work and I need to find a way to manage it better - maybe setting set hours when I will trade and then having clear AWAY time where I have a break to regroup!
Let's see if better weather in May means better results for all!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0 -
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Here is the filter I am using - I also use AI powered league exclusion to remove lower performing leagues. I do this with most of my filters and that allows me to increase my edge. I can also back test to get a feel for it's performance. Happy to share more if you are interested!
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@alex-rule 0_1680686348651_filter-settings.txt
Here's my filter, I am basically looking if the home team has 100+ more ELO points than the away team and then there's a high % of goals in the game FH Over 0.5 is high like 75% then I'll use the First Half Market and lay the draw.
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@martin all of the strategies on this sheet are set and forget.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0Happy to run through any of it with anyone if its any benefit and I'm sure I can learn something as well. (especially if my Home Win at HT filter is doomed to be bipolar forever!)
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@alex-rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@martin My bad thought you were asking for the details for the selections.
that would be good, are these straight set and forget?
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@alex-rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@martin yes it seems to be doing alright at the moment. What's the best way to to get you the info you might want?
Not sure what you mean mate?
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@alex-rule I've got a home win at HT filter as well, that I am testing happy to compare notes if you need or want to matey.
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Month 4 of trading.
March was very up and down for my with large swings in variance killing off a fair bit of profit. Overall the month was down -£16.34 (using purely set and forget strategies)
Highlights
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Under 1.5 goals back is doing very well at 14.82% ROI. Slightly down to Feb but I guess that's variance for you.
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Tomaz Lay under 1.5 started after watching @Martin 's 12 month review. Results so far the this weekend have been very promising
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My under 3.5 goals longer odds is performing well at 6.78%
Lowlights
- My Home win at half time filter has taken a pounding and reduced my winning hugely. I'm hoping this is just a variance swing so next month will be very telling.
For April I am going to have my first go at trading Inplay strategies that I have been testing in the back ground for a few of months. I have a FHG strategy and a late goal 70mins strategy that I will start trading with small stakes.
Martins podcast on investment alternatives really help keep my motivation up during the down swing of my Home Win at Half Time and has kept my eyes on the longer term goal of sustained profit for the foreseeable.
Really looking forward to trading in play to see if the variance is reduced and profit is increased as I believe it should be. Here is to April!!! Bring it on.
£7 stakes for Set and Forget staying this month and £5 for inplay to get started!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0
Cheers,
Al -
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@martin thanks a lot. I have struggled with the patience side of things but your pods and videos have helped for sure. My question to you would be be do you think the community would be interested in any of my profitable selections? And if the answer is yes, what's the best way to go about sending them out? (Nervous newbie syndrome in case they falter!)
Cheers,
Alex -
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Month 3 of trading.
February was a much kinder month to me! It seems the World Cup hangover has passed and with better discipline I have managed to be back in profit. All strategies are still 'Set and Forget' but I am also collecting data on a few inplay strategies.
Overall I am up £54.86 - using £7 stakes which is great for me.
Highlights
- Under 1.5 market currently trading at 24.33% ROI which is consistent.
- Home win at half time at 12.12% ROI
Lowlights
- My back the draw filter is underperformed and now I do not trade it until I get more data.
- A few of my other filters really struggled and wiped their faces.
For this month of March I want to tweak a couple of my strategies that are nearly showing profit and see if I can squeeze more value out of them. I am also going to trade less and just focus on what is working.
This month I will keep my £7 stakes and see how the bank looks for next month and maybe look to increase. Slow and steady wins the race!!!!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0Let's see how we go!
Cheers
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@ryan sorry for the slow reply - just saw this. I have had another good month trading this strategy this month and currently it's been trading at 29.28% ROI. I use quite heavy league exclusion in order to get the higher strike rate. Let me know if you want the selections sent over and you can see for yourself if it's something this might be good for your portfolio? Cheers
