Alex's - one year to being a pro
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@Richard-Latimer I found when I first started that the results all seemed to go in my favour on the few strategies I had. Maybe it was my naivety or wishful thinking but I thought I found a golden egg early on and that was going to continue for me! I guess variance kicks in and now different leagues will be in action and others not. So it be interesting to compare next Dec to last to see if it's a seasonal thing or if I was just seeing a very higher strike rate for that strategy which is not representative of the overall data. Having watched @Martin s last video on DO NOT CHANGE YOUR STRATEGY if feel I need much more data to know for sure.
I think my "one year to being a pro" upon reflection was very ambitious but I was mis led by my early insane ROI and P/L ratio. I think for me 2 years is more realistic. The main thing is I am still having fun and still learning so that's good, I still have the drive to be financially independent!
How long have you been trading for?
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
Month 5 of trading.
April has been a real struggle for me (I take slight comfort in the fact that it seems to be same way for a lot of people). A pretty heavy loss this month for me down £79.85 which is a bit of a punch in the gut!
A few of my strategies seem to be slowing down and I hope this is just to do with variance.
Highlights
- Under 3.5 goals filter till maintaining a good level of profit with a 6.87% ROI currently.
Lowlights
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My Home Win at half time filter seems to have dropped off the edge of a cliff. Might be time to see if anything can be done to save it.
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Under 1.5 goals has taken a bit of a bit this month and has half the ROI it had last month which is very frustrating.
I have paper traded some inplay strategies for FHG and SHG at various entry points. I need to do more work on these to see if I can make them work for me with odds ranges.
I feel like with a full time job, set and forget and now inplay data collection it feels like a lot of work and I need to find a way to manage it better - maybe setting set hours when I will trade and then having clear AWAY time where I have a break to regroup!
Let's see if better weather in May means better results for all!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0What data are you looking at in under 1.5's? I've noticed a few things which while profitable over the course of a year weren't amazing and so I removed them immediately.
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@martin Thanks Martin, could not have done it without and you and Ryan's help. The mentality has been the hardest thing but I can hand on heart say that I did not trade a single bet that wasn't a selection on a strategy in Dec.
I also have to say that your idea of going against the market is where I am seeing the best results.
Under 1.5 Goals - 51%ROI
Away Win - 44% ROILower strike rates but bigger rewards! More data to add this month and hopefully a similar return!
This right here is similar to something I am seeing. Started to notice that I may be able to make money on the raw data for my over 1.5 which just misses out on being a bonafied selection so went back and got all the odds, tweaked the top and bottom ends of data to see what would work and what wouldn't. If it was to continue as it has for the last year I'd be looking at s/r around 56% and ave lay odds of 1.3! Eclipses my under lays!!
Now every loss I have can be analysed as normal but also looked at in a larger context of can I use this another way in the future.
This is the stuff that's really interesting me now.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
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@Jonathan-West Yep I think you need to know why and how the selections are being made, it wouldn't mean people would leave either lol it would actually help people tweak them and make them better.
Plus their software tells you when there's a strategy selection so there's the value.
I mentioned to Adam Footy Amigo and he said 'Ours will be better!'
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@jonathan-west How have you found them with your own data collection and tracking? Are they making you money?
Cheers, Al
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I also bought an inplay strategy over 1.5 first half goals. This sends me an alert when the odds reach 1.5. Here is a summary of the results from the past month. It looks great. I just wish I could see the filters:
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This is a summary of a bought strategy BTTS at average odds of 1.7097. What this doesn't tell you is that this is taken from ALL the leagues. many of which are not available to trade on betfair:
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@Ryan I'd love to. Any time frame on when that will be happening? The footy amigo is definitely worth looking at but fairly limited in it's filter selection compared with yours. If you can incorporate all of your football ratings metrics as filters, that would be gold dust!
I'm less impressed with the bought strategies so far. This could be just poor choice on my part but there is less transparency with them. I was expecting to be able to look at the filters it uses and possibly edit them, but this isn't possible. In theory the idea of allowing traders to buy strategies from each other is an interesting one but I think there are a few fake strategies on there. I much prefer your more honest approach in the forums, allowing traders to impart knowledge free of charge.
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@jonathan-west Would be great to get you to apply for the beta when its open as well because you've got experience now with the footy amigo!
Are the strategies you bought looking good?
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Hi all - I've been following this thread with interest as I too am quietly trying to gear up to semi pro trading. When I saw the footy amigo screen shot I checked it out a few weeks ago and am initially very impressed with the back testing feature. Saves so much time and gives me way more confidence on my one and only current strategy - lay 3.5 goals first 10 / 15 mins, then trade out. I''m trying to pre-match scalp the footy too but limited success so far. I've also bought two of the strategies on their so will see how they go.
Can't wait to see the backtesting feature for BTC when it comes out!
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@ryan members can share their strategies - or they can make them private and and charge a small fee for someone to buy one. You can see the trading history of the strategy and the profitability over time.
It sends you a push notification to desktop and phone for inplay and you can place your trade manually. They are currently working on APIs for bots I believe to they want to make it fully automated for traders. They are currently doing loads updates like live game filtering.
In play alerts to a bot would be the dream! Would never have to sit at comp of an eve ever again! IMAGINE!
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@alex-rule Looks solid that!
Will show this to Adam as we are having a rebuild of the footie at the moment and he might get some ideas!
Interesting that they have strategies built in there, are their pre built ones profitable?
Does it alert you in play?
I'm thinking that would be cool, imagine having your strategies in play alerts connected to automation!
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@ryan said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@alex-rule Looks sexy this software lol what is it?
It's hard to comment too much as I am not familiar with the software and the inputs.
Hi @Ryan - this what I am using currently for Pre-match and In-play strategies.
https://dashboard.footyamigo.com/dashboardIt's very powerful once you get your head around it and can back test prematch strategies up 6 months as well which gives you a huge head start. I still test for a couple of months for my own sanity but it records the paper trades for you so you can test 100's of strategies and not need to log a single one on a spreadsheet so you save vast amount of man hours!
Any questions about it just let me know. Cheers, Alex
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@alex-rule Looks sexy this software lol what is it?
It's hard to comment too much as I am not familiar with the software and the inputs.
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