Alex's - one year to being a pro
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Month 17 of trading
Well another month and despite some ups and downs we are still making money! I really feel that the consistency is coming through and as I add more strings to my bow in the form of quality strategies then this will only compound and increase going forward.
Highlights
- LTD had a shocker at the start of April - but even after dropping 15 points in one weekend it still ended up £27 up to £8 lay stakes.
- My LTD 2.0 ended up making £7 to £2 lays
- My over 2.5 goals Set&Forget made £4 to £1 backs.
- My inplay strats seem to doing well and I'm learning how those markets work, gaining data and experience with live trading which is really exciting.
Lowlights.
- April seemed to be a funny month with the ending/slowing down of some leagues. My strats had to spend most of the month recovering.
It really goes to show that strategy diversity is king here. I had been hoping and naively predicting that my LTD would continue to produce 10% ROI but it has slowed down. This has however increased my desire to more strategies and spread the risk.
My plan for this month is to TEST TEST TEST more strategies to find angles for winning. I am also going live with a late goal strat for 2.5 at 70mins and a LTD at half time that early data looks promising.
Adam's podcast about the capability of the new software and the new Masterclasses have restocked my fires to smash this. I will make it happen! How bloody good is Betfair trading?! Let's get it!
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Month 16 of trading
PROFIT! - That's the headline this month again. The consistency is really coming along nicely now. I'm not a millionaire but I can see that by implementing my plan and sticking to it - the results are coming in. I'm only about £21 up but I feel like I am no longer losing money and am becoming a profitable trader as have been up for the last few months!
Highlights
- LTD strat made £53.45 - had a very slow start to the month but made a recovery towards the end - not helped with international break killing selection numbers.
- My LTD 2.0 made £8.85 to £1 lays - backing up the strike rate of the historical data which is really promising.
- I've started inplay trading a couple of strats - very early but I'm enjoying adding more strings to my bow.
Lowlights
- Nothing huge - I really feel that through taking the time and basing my decisions on plenty of data I'm making less and less mistakes.
I plan to increase a couple of stats maybe this month and with LTD improved I should be in for a better month all round.
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Month 15 of trading
Finally it feels like the consistency is paying off. I am now in haling the good s**t and exhaling the bullshit. Now I have several months worth of data and multiple strategies being tested I feel like the stress to put money on everything has completely gone.
I have now stopped trading those strategies that have been flat for months and aren't showing me any real value. I have stuck to the few that have and I'm up £90 for the month - which considering I am still at very low stakes is really good. My wins weren't wiped out by desperation to push a half baked idea with real money. This is a real turning point and feels like a build on last month.
My new system is as follows.....
- Paper trade for 3 months - collect the strike rate, odds and no of selections.
- If after 3 months its showing good ROI then I am starting with £1-5 stakes depending on the level certainty I feel.
- If not enough selections or thin ROI allow an extra month and review until either it meets my satisfaction criteria or I bin it off and pick something else up.
Highlights
- LTD strat - I made £94 to £7 lays - it has now made money everything since trading it. I have increased by stakes to £8 so I can feel progress and slowly up the stakes so I can build my confidence over time.
- Tomaz under 1.5 lays continues to do well and might be on the way to sorting out the loss it gave when I was over staking.
- 2nd LTD strat testing with £1 stakes this month is exciting to see how it compares to the current one.
- Inplay trading has gone live on a few strategies for testing which is really exciting. Hopefully higher returns for less risk!
Lowlights
- No massive ones to mention really - keep it simple and kick the bad habits.
Automation has taken another pause so far. Again I need to further explore my stats to make sure I would be getting value from it. It's something for the future once I have the basics right.
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Month 14 of trading
The plan for this month was more of the same. The real takeaways from my learning via youtube, reading and podcasts is that there is no rush. I'm guilty of tracking a strategy for a month or two and getting too excited and jumping on. Only to find it dips or breaks even.
More data, more testing - that's focus going forward. It's a practise that I know will serve me well further down the line.
Highlights
- LTD strat - I increased my stakes and it is still making a solid ROI - £100 to £7 lay stakes. This is really promising and although I am tempted to increase the stakes again I have decided to trade Feb at £7 again to ensure it's not a blip and I can increase the back and review ahead of March. Currently at £300 profit for 5 months of trading.
- In play strategies continue to be tested - FHG, 2.5 Goals and LTD at HT.
Lowlights
- Both of my over 2.5 goals strats have dipped in Jan - wiping out my profit from LTD.
I wanted to get automation going this month but on reflection I don't think I have the data yet to start trading my inplay strategies. That time and effort my might best placed in collection for the next month and reviewing after Feb - after all - there is plenty of time.
Keep plugging away and being consistent!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0 -
@Andrew-Gray Thanks for the sheet. Lot's to look over there and get my head around so I'll come back to you with questions once I get there aha.
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So on the lay the draw the ROI with varying stakes is 10.23%, with 1pt lays per bet it's 10.74% and with 1pt liability lays it's 10.5% so not much in it really
On the under 1.5 goals strat your varying stakes ROI is 6.06%, to win 1pt is 5.67% and 1pt back per bet is 9.75%, so that is quite a big bump on that one
- Good to know the ROI of the underlying strategy without the varying stakes I Think.Cheers
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OK mate just spent 45 mins adding that stuff as example templates to both a BACK and a LAY strat, as easier to just do it than explain it on here. You can just re-copy the SS back to your own G-Drive, then look at the formulas yourself and copy it over to the other sheets if you want
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QsK-0XJY4TX648RIyAd2qrTnfJ07dPtmG9hhzKz_Kb4/edit?usp=sharing
The templates are the first 2 strategy tabs on the SS, hopefully clearly labelled so no confusion.
I added both a "To win 1pt" and "1pt stakes" staking strategy columns on the back strategy tab,
and a "1pt Liability" and "1pt Lay" staking strategy on the lay strategy tab
Also added Strike rate to break even, how much you are beating it by, and ROI for all
Also added a filter line on the 3rd row, so you can filter e.g. by league to see if there are any outperforming leagues or rubbish ones (although I would gather loads more data before actually bothering with that) but thought I would add it just so you can see how that works.
Worth noting that you cannot use SUM and COUNT with filters, so I've changed everything to use SUBTOTAL, which will actually update all the headline figures properly when you use the filter row.Any Q's just shout!
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@Andrew-Gray thanks for the pointers - if you have the cell formula and something I can cut and paste in then that would be great to have a in each of the cases you mentioned. Thanks again for the pointers - Alex
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Hi Alex just had a look at your spreadsheets, lots of interesting stuff on there.
Can I suggest a few improvements to your spreadsheets:
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Add a column or two to calculate 1pt per bet results. Because you are changing stakes a fair bit on some of them it's hard to get a sense of the real ROI% based on keeping stakes steady.
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Add a "Strike rate to break even" cell so you can compare the current strike rate and see how far away you are to it (or beating it by) on each strat
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Your ROI calculation is wrong for lay strategies, you need to add an extra column for the liability of each lay (i.e. if a £1 "stake" and odds of 3.0 then the stake is actually £2 because that is what you are risking if the outcome goes against you). Hence the lay the draw 30% ROI is looking too big (Likewise on another lay strat your ROI is -137%, obviously this cannot ever be true as how can you lose more than 100% of your investment
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It's late now but I am happy to do an example spreadsheet based on yours and send it back to you if you want next week at some point.
Cheers and GL this weekend
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Month 13 of trading
Into my second year now of learning to trade and the big message for this month is profit! Over £60 which I'm really happy about.
It feels like all of the points I made to myself in the last couple posts have stuck and now I really do feel like a corner is turned the the proof is in the numbers.
Consistency is king so now it's time to zoom in what is working, repeat it and scale.
Highlights
- Lay the draw strategy have a great month with £102 profit to £5 stakes.
- Most of the other strategies I continue to test seem to be doing well.
- I have picked up a couple more really promising ones as well as sacked off those taking my time and energy.
- Inplay FHG being tested as well as a SHG strategy.
Lowlights
- Couple of my strats that I thought looked amazing have been flat in practise and don't seem worthy of continuing.
Plan for next month is to have got the ball rolling with automation for inplay strategies. Scale my existing strategies and track the new ones closley.
Consistency is king and once you start to break the dam the results come thick and fast after I believe! Roll on Jan!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0
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Plan for the next 12 months.
Below I have set out my plan at this moment in time for the next 12 months. Along the way that might change for countless reasons but I will update the goals as I see fit and depending on the situation I find my self.
From my experience in life and business you need to specific about what you want to achieve - the more specific and clear you can be the better you can build a pathway to that outcome. So let's start with the BIG goal and work back how I am going to get there.
Goal - Make an average of £1000 profit in at last 6 months of the next year.
This figure would allow me to reduce the number of days where I currently work to 3 days a week. With £1000 a month from BF I would be making more money over all with both incomes then I currently earn - I would have the security of the main job and then could set aside 2 days during the week to up-skill myself, test strategies and review my work without impacting my social life on weekends.
How am I going to get there?
I want 5 or 6 solid strategies that I can rely on. I need this number of strategies because if each strategy has on average 30 picks a month then I would have 150/180 selections to make on average £6.66/£5.55 - about 6% ROI on average over the last 6 months of the year to £100 stakes. When you right it down that goal feels very achievable - I have even just surprised myself.
The above would imply I had a £10k bank using 1% of my bank roll or £5k using 2% - this could be built slowly over time as well and me topping it up from savings over the next couple of months to get me started.
So what strategies do I have to get me started? Currently I use Set and Forget as I work and TBH I don't really enjoy live trading - football tends to be unsociable hours that I value too highly to spend in other ways.
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LTD - 81 selections forward tested since 08/09/23 (3months)
£72 profit to £5 lay stakes - 18% ROI so far.
Plan to increase stakes from Jan if Dec continues well. -
Tomaz under 1.5 - Martins testing sheet showing 9% ROI to 400 selections - I am currently testing again since Nov will continue for Dec and Jan and then look to increase stakes accordingly.
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Over 2.5 Lays - back tested over 100 results with a 60% strike rate. Using LAY bet calculator with average odds of 2.11 from testing so far this should yield a healthy profit of 12.8%
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Over 3.5 Lays - back tested over 100 results with a 67% strike rate. As long as I average less than 3.0 lay odds then I should come out with profit.
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Over 2.5 goals 1.0 - currently 289 results / avg 24 selections a month with a 80% strike rate - 1.35 odds from current testing (went live in Nov) - should yield an 8% ROI if it continues.
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Over 2.5 goals 2.0 - 174 selections / avg 35 selections a month with a 68% strike rate - 1.53 current odds avg - yielding a 5.34% ROI to £5 bets.
These are the 6 that I am confident in should they continue their current limited success.
For anyone that's interested in how I worked out the above I use the tools below that I find very useful.
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When you know your strike rate or average odds of your strategy then use - https://strikeratecalculator.com/
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To work out your Lay bets then use your strike rate or odds for backing and convert with - https://betcalcul.com/calculator/converting-lay-odds-to-back-odds/
I have found this so helpful to decide whether a strategy is woth following or if you want to create a filter with lay odds. -
If you want to work out for expected profit then you you can enter your strike rate and avg odds here to give you an idea if it's worth following. - https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/roi/
Other plans for the year.
AUTOMATION!!!! - Once we have the football stats update then I will be recreating my strategies and using the URL link with BFBM to place a significant chuck of my trades. I will also be using these two pieces of software to trade inplay. I will expand and accelerate this part of my plan as the software allows me to.I may also also look to add one or two strategies from the members filters. And look to automate these as the software allows via URL in the future.
Quite a lot to cover off but that's my plan - I'll update each month with a mini update and maybe do a half way update to see how I an tracking and getting along with my progress.
Any changes to the plan I will also update on as nothing is set in stone. If anyone has any questions or comments then please fire away. I'm here to learn and always keen to discuss. Cheers, Alex
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@Adam said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@Alex-Rule This is a brilliant introspective post, well done.
I think point 3 is where a lot of people fall down. It's not as simple as predicting that a match will have lots of goals, at least if everyone else thinks there will be as well.
Point 5 is why seemingly contradictory approaches can both make money, and why some people win and some people lose using the same strategy.
Regarding the losses, have they been consistent through the year or were they weighted towards one end or the other?
You mentioned making some mistakes, rushing in etc. Was there any pattern to the losing trades that resulted from those? For example you got back from work one day, sick of the day job and decided to up the stakes to try and hurry things up a bit, or you had some new idea for a strategy and just couldn't wait to get it going, so skipped the paper trading part?
I'm just wondering whether those learning experiences were down to a temporary lapse in mindset (e.g. a one-off bad mood that scuppered you) or just a general undercurrent of impatience.
When I was learning to scalp horses, I was always very susceptible to whatever mood I was in that day. If I'd got out of the wrong side of bed that morning it was game over. That's mostly why I ended up automating as much as I could
Hi Adam, thanks for taking the time to read my post - it's good to know I'm not just sat in a room talking to myself. However by putting these things down I'm hoping....
- People can read and if they are going through the same in their first then they are not alone and it happens to others. Trading can feel like you are alone and it's you against the world.
- I can look back in another year and see the progress I have made. I will be able to see if I am making the same mistakes or if I feel the same about about trading overall. My goals may also change over the next 12 months so it's good to have a history.
My hope is that I look back and see how far I have come, what I have learnt and that by backing myself and putting in the work that it is paying off.
In regard to your points.....
Losses - I would say that they have been more or less constant over the last year. However the last month or so I have really made great strides and cut those to just £17 loss last month - which given the number of strategies I am testing is probs a loss of about 1 or 2% in relation to what I am staking. I can hand on heart say that I have stopped throwing good money after bad just hoping for variance to come to the rescue to even me out. I've learnt patience and now am just testing with £1 stakes any new strategy.Mistakes - I am quite glad to say that I never rage trade. If it's not on one of my selections list then it doesn't get traded, end of. Where I think I have come unstuck is I have traded a strategy for a month say at £2 and then seen it make 10% ROI - the patten fits the back testing - I then go to £3 or £4 stakes and then it bombs or wipes out all the profit I would have made as it's drops off. I think I am guilty of setting up a lot of strats and maybe not focusing on a couple to see how they are performing. A scatter gun approach and hoping that out of the 10 I set up 1 or 2 are goers. These other 8 have been eating my bank! I love to skip the paper trading but have now limited the opening to £1 stakes. I feel this gives me the same "feel" as trading without the risk. A must for any newbie!
Mindset - For me it comes down to impatience for sure. We live in a society of instant gratification. You see people all around you having success (real or fake) and our chimp brains want the same. You hear about sports traders making 6 figure sums with seeming ease and you feel like you should be part of the gang. It's also tricky when you are in a job role that isn't fulfilling you. I'm guilty of seeing trading as my exit plan and running towards it too quickly and getting a little burnt in the process. I'll speak more to automation in my plan for the next 12 months.
I've learnt over the last year something that I think I knew all along - you have to work for any success. But what I love about trading is once you hit a decent strategy that works for you, you can just turn up the dial it will reward you exponentially.
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@Richard-Latimer yes, it has certainly been a year of learning. And I think had I not made a loss and for burnt then I probably wouldn't learn having not made a mistake to do so from.
I am genuinely excited about the future of my trading - I just need to cut myself some slack, breath deeply and manage expectations. It's all about the long game.
