My Journey - From Novice to Pro - 2023
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Early testing and will simulate my (around 15 games) with the HEDGE BET
Here is the reduction of the HEDGE BETS with the three losses I had.Loss 143,81 Reduced to 108,17
France Lig 1 - Lens v Rennes
That is a +35,64 profit on Under 0,5Loss 149,95 Reduced to 129,55
Ger Bundesliga - Furth v Stuttgart
That is a +20,4 profit on Under 0,5Loss 137,04 Reduced to 109,04
Italy Serie A - Atalanta v Inter
That is a +28 profit on Under 0,5Now I will simulate all the games again and collect more data.
A raw estimation at the moment, minus 7,23 (thanks to the hedge bet)Won +339,53
Loss -346,76 -
The great thing about simulations is that you can test and check all scenarios.
So I test to implement a HEDGE BET
This is how it works, using Smarkets as they have no limit for placed amounts.You risk 2 cents if the split is £5, 5, 5, 5
For example, we back Under 0,5 at odds 23
and lay at 19 to lock in a profit for 8 cents.So we only risk 2 cents around the first 7 min into the game.
So early goals would leave us with no profit and take a loss of -2 cents.But the upside is greater, reducing losses and boosting profits during the trade.
This is how the back/lay looks with 4 ticks increments.
That adds up to 60 min so I might change the increments closer to 80 min.
Next test 5 ticks.+8 cent first increment
+17 cent second incresment
+26 third increment
+35,70 forth incrementSo if I would take a loss at 80 min I would reduce the overall loss with +35,70
And at the same time that if the first bet for the trade is placed we would boost our overall profit for the trade.Back to simulation
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Hello all ...
I took the best filter and thought if they don't work, then the other filters will also fail.
One way to speed up the process.I use the following filter, no 0-0 and 80% O1.5 including the last played H2H and O2,5 at or less than 2.00.
Had 28 qualifiers at the moment, but some with early goals with no bet and some had O2.5 above 2.00, so I ended up with thirteen playable games.Also considering changing the stop loss when I have more data and adding maybe add score trimmings, like % between 30 to 70 min like Ryan has, not sure how to solve that, but I know I can count when the goal has been scored using Soocerway.
Proceed, reflect and move forward.I consider doing this month by month.
At the moment I collect from 1/1-22 to 17/1-22Now I understand why it is a marathon and not a sprint.
+17,82
+13,49
-143,81
+13,68
-149,90
+82,51
+48,05
+24,12
+29,48
+27,31
+15,31
+13,32
-136,91
+54,44Won +339,53
Loss -430,62Profit -91,09
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Hello ...
Stats - I soon reached 100 qualifiers and I split them into three categories/filters.
Good - Medium - WeakI will split the simulation into chunks of around 33 qualifiers to see the performance.
Simulate In-Play with real Betfair Exchange odds.First test Good and Medium Filter, around 44 qualifiers.
Update tomorrow. -
Hello all ...
Thanks for your input Martin
I invest in Exchange simulation software and now collect 40 matches each day from Betexplorer.
And check each game at Soocerway for Form - take 6 hours of work and split the sessions into two each day.
When I have above 100 qualifiers I put them into the in-play analysis software and play each game.
Then after 100 played I will see the ROI and overall performance.
Then decide on another 100.Testing on Europa A Leagues
• England Premier League
• France Ligue 1
• Germany Bundesliga
• Italy Serie A
• Netherlands Eredivisie
• Spain Primera- Portugal Liga Portugal
I use Evernote for writing memos and keeping track of data, Ryan tips, thanks.
Stick to my strategy as Ryan promotes and I fully agree.I am going to make this work and get a positive return on investment.
Ryan is talking about having a trading plan and I say how about analysing and collecting data for daily routines?
Until you crack the selections for the strategy and get a positive ROI.I will make this happen
And nothing beats the real thing so parallel to testing I play with real money to get a real-life feel for the strategy.
£500 bankroll and 6 Euro stake (split 1.5 in four increments)Testing on Europen B Leagues at the moment
• Austria Bundesliga
• Belgium First Division A
• Czech Republic Division 1
• Denmark Superligaen
• England Championship
• England League One
• England League Two
• France Ligue 2
• Germany Bundesliga 2
• Italy Serie B
• Netherlands Eerste Divisie
• Poland Ekstraklasa
• Portugal Primeira Liga
• Russia Premier League
• Scotland Scottish Premiership
• Spain Segunda
• Switzerland Super League
• Turkey Super LigCheers
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@patrik-mellqvist have you looked at Martin's Over 1.5 Goals Strategy? It's performed really well: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3286/set-forget-football-strategies-community-collaboration-project
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@patrik-mellqvist I've found good odds for Over 1.5 are 1.25-1.35 but I would set a filter up at 1.2-1.4 so that I don't miss any close ones where the market is not fully liquid.
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Hello ...
Now I have made some reflection and come to the conclusion that I will get back to BTC later.
I like the stats software and the support and coaching, but at the moment I will walk my own path.
Maybe I get back in January/February.Don't know if my topic and writing will vanish or if I can get back where I left off.
There should be a pause membership function, but I will cancel and come back later when ready.Wish all of you the best.
Patrik
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Finally, i start to understand the stats software, pretty straightforward
I created a filter that I am pretty happy with (beginner happy) just want to add one last thing, but not sure how to do that.
Want to add the last played H2H game that shall have greater than 0 goals.This is my current filter, it may be too tight and I might change things depending on the number of qualifiers.
- FT 0-0 less than 10%
- Home FT Over 1.5 greater than 70%
- Away FT Over 1.5 greater than 70%
- Betfair Home odds greater than 1.49
- Betfair Away odds greater than 1.49
- Betfair Over 2.5 less than 2.00 (this option is maybe overdoing things - but in the long term the market is correct)
I might add, Betfair is Over 1.5 greater than 1.29
Edit
LOL this filter is not working o1.5 odds around 1.17
Need to find something between
Back to the drawing board -
@patrik-mellqvist Now we are talking!!!
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Hello all ...
I had a good sleep and have been processing some thoughts last night and making some reflections.
No pressure LOL so I created my first own filter and my first own strategy and I am ready to go.
Try and error forward for success, I hope.This is my strategy sketch in my head in short terms.
Back Over 1.5 goals with four splits with increments.
Stopp Loss at 80 min.Enter after 15 min if there has been a significant attack on target, in-play.
Enter at odds around 1.4 minimum and above to get a good overall distributed increment of four splits.Cash Out after one goal.
And optional if the match is hot in play, then lay for a free bet to boost and increase profits for a second goal.Novice settings for the STATS FILTER
There was a tutorial video on how to set a filter to get one goal with 0-0 less than 10% wish I made.
Future setting to experiment with:
- Matches less the 10% for 0-0 (done)
- Home Favorite odds 1.5 to 2.6
- Over 2.5 goals 1.99 or less
- Home/Away Over 1.5 goals 80%
- Over 1.5 goals starting price 1.30 or higher
My beginner trading plan for the moment:
Start playing today and will process and reflect after the first 33 trades.
Then I might learn how to implement other filters if needed.Next 66 trades, here I will process and reflect and see if there is any value in using a Lay (free bet) to boost profits further.
Or skip the idea.100 trades evaluating how I have done - in red or in green - tweak and improve or fine-tune the strategy model.
Cheers Patrik
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Okay, Ryan, I listen and the point is taken - maybe it's the excitement of being at BTC that gets me carried away.
So back to square one.Cheers
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@patrik-mellqvist You start this blog by saying my advice is priceless yet you are going to hack BTC?
I'm not saying its not do-able, but you have started with a contradiction?
My split stake is profitable and returns well but over the long term, looking at it on a purely monthly basis is not what I would advise.
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I wish it were that straight forward !
However, good luck in your quest.
