Trading the Correct Score Markets
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Does anyone trade this regularly as part of the portfolio.
Is it worth it?I have been looking into it recently as a potential trading strategy for the world cup as my daily strategies are stats based and driven by the BTC software via my filters.
I had a look at videos i found on it and tried it out last night and made a small profit but i found myself a bit lost at times during certain games, i think i need to decide on exit strategy as it can get away from you quickly even if you have called the game correctly pre match.
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I Dutch the correct scores often based on filter result and then some further research. Currently this season, I have a 74% success rate.
The strategy I use is to only do games where I think there will be not too many goals. I then would back 0 0, 1 0, 0 1, 1 1, and either 2 0 or 0 2 to the team that is favourite.
If there's an early goal, I assess the in-play stats and make a decision if I want to exit the trade. If all is going well and there is no goal at about 30 mins, I make further trades on the 2 1. 1 2 at the now much bigger odds, it does reduce the profit on the others I backed but it gives you much more of a chance of exiting the trade with a profit or tiny loss if there are some quick goals after the 30 min mark or early second half. I can only say that I have been quite successful, but I research well before I trade. -
This market can be traded very well if you split your stakes, apparently.
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@lee-leadbetter my advice just forget this strategy long term. Its prone to human error. When things go wrong you'll have no handle on it, data is absolutely key as you will have seen to improving yourself. This is kind of just hoping the markets are right. Yet throughout the forum most of us are trying to trade and find when the markets are better or worse prices than we think they should be. Very few ever make this work long term as it is so try not make it harder for yourself doing this kind of strat. Much easier ways.
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Simply by opening up the match on betfair and checking odds and let the market indicate the way the match will play out.
@steven-bright said in Trading the Correct Score Markets:
@lee-leadbetter So how would you calculate probability without stats here? How would the match odds and 2.5 market help you here?
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@lee-leadbetter So how would you calculate probability without stats here? How would the match odds and 2.5 market help you here?
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Hi Ryan, yes agree it is complicated but also a potential string to add to my bow. it wouldn't be a main focus of mine, i am more focused with match odds and O2.5.
It was more of a question to the community to see if there was anyone who has success with it.@ryan said in Trading the Correct Score Markets:
@lee-leadbetter I've never been able to crack that market, doesn't mean its not do able mind. Just always seems to be a lot going on.
I knew a trader years back who used this market and it was insane how well he did from it, he dutched the 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 with 75% of his stake and then the other 25% was split on the 2-0 / 0-2 / 2-1 / 1/2 I believe his plan was on the first goal he then laid that scoreline for 100% of his stake which meant a loss on the current score but if one more goal went in he'd make a decent profit.
Was all a bit complicated for me mind!!
But 100% it can be cracked, I'd start with the super trader system on it and work through that flow and it'll build something.
So by calling the game correctly i mean using probability and following the match odds and 2.5s markets along with a quick check of teams in question, do they have a full strength team, do they need the win etc.
@steven-bright said in Trading the Correct Score Markets:
By calling the game correctly what do you mean by that, is it an opinion or probability? The reason why you are trading with filters etc is because they are stats focussed. These will help you eliminate bad games. Doing it free hand like for the world cup how are you going to determine what price a game should be? So what makes the correct score market prices value for this game? The answer here is unless you actually have a probability measure then you are essentially punting and hoping you can trade them free hand. This could lead to many human error trades that could hurt either potential profit or incur losses. Doesn't mean it can't work just means your then hoping for a few big games of luck.
Yes Chris, Dutching or Skewing stakes would be best way to do it from what i have learnt so far.
@chris-osborne said in Trading the Correct Score Markets:
I’ve dabbled problem with them is if you get a couple of early goals your looking at a big loss.
How are you trading them are you dutching or some other means?
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@lee-leadbetter I've never been able to crack that market, doesn't mean its not do able mind. Just always seems to be a lot going on.
I knew a trader years back who used this market and it was insane how well he did from it, he dutched the 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 with 75% of his stake and then the other 25% was split on the 2-0 / 0-2 / 2-1 / 1/2 I believe his plan was on the first goal he then laid that scoreline for 100% of his stake which meant a loss on the current score but if one more goal went in he'd make a decent profit.
Was all a bit complicated for me mind!!
But 100% it can be cracked, I'd start with the super trader system on it and work through that flow and it'll build something.
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By calling the game correctly what do you mean by that, is it an opinion or probability? The reason why you are trading with filters etc is because they are stats focussed. These will help you eliminate bad games. Doing it free hand like for the world cup how are you going to determine what price a game should be? So what makes the correct score market prices value for this game? The answer here is unless you actually have a probability measure then you are essentially punting and hoping you can trade them free hand. This could lead to many human error trades that could hurt either potential profit or incur losses. Doesn't mean it can't work just means your then hoping for a few big games of luck.
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I’ve dabbled problem with them is if you get a couple of early goals your looking at a big loss.
How are you trading them are you dutching or some other means?
