First Blog - Second Half Goal Any Score Line
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Sat 06/04/2024 Selections.
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@Martin Thanks for the reply,
- At the moment I’ve calculated percentage of SHG per league, not profit, but i can easily calculate the profit for each league as well and compare both
- 50%, there doesn’t seem to be many below 50% which is a positive.
- I’ll be sure to check the odds to league to strike rate too.
- I’ll need to take a closer look at all the leagues with 1-2 selections and see what impact they are having overall, maybe seeing what it looks like with all removed and then again removing the poor performing ones. Tricky to know with almost no data.
Well in total I have 758 selections. From sept 2023 I found that selections between within odds range 1.33-1.39 were most profitable so from that point I’ve only tested within that range, and have brought the strategy back in to profit. I have 385 selections recorded within that odds range and it’s those 385 that I’ve calculated the SHG percentage of SHG.
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- I would remove based on profit, do you have the profit or is it just strike rate?
- I would want higher than 50% for SHG.
- Low scoring leagues can have much better odds, so you need to make sure they aren't profitable before removing any.
- If it has 1-2 results either keep it as there is no real data, or you could remove it if you have a lot of results in total as they may not get many selections anyway(how long have you tested, how many matches total?)
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Hi @Martin @Ryan (or anyone else with advice) I’ve done a bit of analysis on the SHG percentage by league for this strategy and created a new sheet to highlight this.
In your opinion, when it comes to eliminating leagues with poor SHG percentage, what would be the qualifying percentage of SHG to keep?
For example leagues with SHG equal to or above 50%?
Or would you just have a play about removing poor leagues from the lowest scoring upwards?
There are also a lot of leagues with just 1-2 matches, a fair amount 100% and others 0% which on their own are obviously small sample sizes. Would you just treat those leagues as you would the leagues with larger sample sizes?
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Sat 23/03/2024 Selections.
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS I just use the filter as it is, I’ve never changed it….so no tick.
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@Chris-KingFilter Criteria:
Home H2 Over 0.5 % >= 95
Away H2 Over 0.5 % >= 95
Ov. Matches Played >= 10No League Restrictions (Initially)
Scope: Last 5 Matches
Restrict To Current Season (Yes)
Exclude Playoffs (Yes)
What about simmilar opposition? tick or no tick?
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Fri 22/03/2024 Selections.
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS Pre-match odds? The Over 1.5 Goal market.
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@Chris-King over 1.5 or 2.5
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@Chris-King over 1.5 or
2.5 -
Tue 19/03/2024 Selections.
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