First Blog - Second Half Goal Any Score Line
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I thought it was time to try to make the most out of the forum, spend more time here taking part or at least reading the content and learning.
I also like the idea of sharing an idea for a strategy and being accountable, which I hope will also help to keep my discipline a constant.
I’ve set up a filter/strategy I’ve been interested in trying out, so the plan is to test it and share the progress for a number of reasons:-
To become more involved in the BTC forum and learn
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To help me focus on just a few trading related projects only
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To keep trading volume low but still have regular trades available
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To test a second half goal theory and filter I have:
4a. Trade matches with a high chance of 1 Second Half Goal regardless of the Half Time score line
4b. Trade value matches without stupidly short Second Half Over 0.5 Goals odds - They must exist!
4c. Trade the Second Half Over 0.5 Goals market for as much of the second half as possible - Being able to enter as early as possible
4d. Trade by ‘Order’ or Keep Bet, placing my trade at the Target Odds at Half Time
4e. Trade by allowing the trade to run until Full Time
Filter Criteria:
Home H2 Over 0.5 % >= 95
Away H2 Over 0.5 % >= 95
Ov. Matches Played >= 10No League Restrictions (Initially)
Scope: Last 5 Matches
Restrict To Current Season (Yes)
Exclude Playoffs (Yes)
Staking:
Testing at £10 stakes.
Odds:
Target Odds >=1.40 (Requiring a Strike Rate of 71% (1.40).
A really good strike rate for a Second Half Goal would be 85% (from my limited experience) needing Break Even Odds of 1.18.
The filter is finding selections with both Home and Away teams Second Half Over 0.5 Goal percentage at or above 95% in each of their past 5 matches.
95% requires Break Even Odds of 1.05.
Match Selections:
Manually narrow down available selections to those with Pre Match Over 1.5 Goals odds 1.30 and above ONLY.
This is an important part of the strategy in that it gives a better chance of the Second Half Over 0.5 Goals price not being so short that we have to wait well in to the second half for the trade to match on profitable odds.
The aim being the trade is matched as early as possible, maximising the exposure in the trade and the chance of a winning trade.
This also helps to keep the trade volume down, hopefully resulting in getting only quality prices over quantity.
Double check the previous 5 (or more if inclined) league match second half results for each team via the Sofa Score app. That’s the last 5 home matches for home and last 5 away matches for away. They should all qualify for a second half goal/s.
- DO NOT trade matches where BOTH teams show an overwhelming trend of conceding a second half goal and not scoring any.
Check the number of remaining league games the teams have. Question the motivation of each team to need to win from 5-1 games left. I will generally be trading 4-5 matches left but disregarding 3-1 matches left unless either team has an incentive to win.
Checking the second half goal trend and remaining matches can be done quickly via the Sofa Score app.
Rules:
Narrow down filter selections to those with Pre Match O1.5 Goals Odds 1.30 and above.
Disregard matches where both teams have only been conceding second half goals
Disregard the last 3 matches of the season unless one or both teams have an incentive to win.
Place an Order/Keep Bet at Half Time on the applicable Over 0.5 Goals Market for 1.40 regardless of the score line.
If/When matched, allow the trade to run for the remainder of the match (Do not trade out).
If there is a Goal, the trade has won.
If there is a Goal before the trade is matched, DO NOT TRADE the match.
I’ll do my best to keep this thread updated as timely as possible. The match stats will always be updated On the spreadsheet for anyone to view, and I’ll test/paper trade as many selections as possible around other commitments/work. I may also be amending this initial post if rules/approach or anything else etc. needs to change.
Link to the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BNGw098lpAa1_ynGCGOkNDcgVA1rhURk0Yt92Q7fAto/edit?usp=sharing
Will it work? Let’s see how it goes…
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Sat 15/06/2024 Selections.
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Sat 25/05/2024 Selections.
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Sun 19/05/2024 Selections.
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@Chris-King Lecce v Atalanta… fancy a goal in the SH?
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Sat 18/05/2024 Selections.
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Fri 17/05/2024 Selections.
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Wed 15/10/2024 Selections.
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Fri 10/05/2023 Selections.
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Sun May 05/05/2024 Selections.
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Sun 28/04/2024 Seletions.
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Sat 27/04/2024 Selections.
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Fri 26/04/2024 Selections.
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Sun 21/04/2024 Selections.
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Fri 19/04/2024 Selections.
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Sun 14/04/2024 Selections.
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Sat 13/04/2024 Selections.
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Fri 09/04/2024 Selections.
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Tue 09/04/2024 Selections.
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Sun 07/08/2024 Selections.
