First Blog - Second Half Goal Any Score Line

I thought it was time to try to make the most out of the forum, spend more time here taking part or at least reading the content and learning.
I also like the idea of sharing an idea for a strategy and being accountable, which I hope will also help to keep my discipline a constant.
I’ve set up a filter/strategy I’ve been interested in trying out, so the plan is to test it and share the progress for a number of reasons:

  1. To become more involved in the BTC forum and learn

  2. To help me focus on just a few trading related projects only

  3. To keep trading volume low but still have regular trades available

  4. To test a second half goal theory and filter I have:

4a. Trade matches with a high chance of 1 Second Half Goal regardless of the Half Time score line

4b. Trade value matches without stupidly short Second Half Over 0.5 Goals odds - They must exist!

4c. Trade the Second Half Over 0.5 Goals market for as much of the second half as possible - Being able to enter as early as possible

4d. Trade by ‘Order’ or Keep Bet, placing my trade at the Target Odds at Half Time

4e. Trade by allowing the trade to run until Full Time

Filter Criteria:

Home H2 Over 0.5 % >= 95
Away H2 Over 0.5 % >= 95
Ov. Matches Played >= 10

No League Restrictions (Initially)

Scope: Last 5 Matches

Restrict To Current Season (Yes)

Exclude Playoffs (Yes)

Staking:

Testing at £10 stakes.

Odds:

Target Odds >=1.40 (Requiring a Strike Rate of 71% (1.40).

A really good strike rate for a Second Half Goal would be 85% (from my limited experience) needing Break Even Odds of 1.18.

The filter is finding selections with both Home and Away teams Second Half Over 0.5 Goal percentage at or above 95% in each of their past 5 matches.

95% requires Break Even Odds of 1.05.

Match Selections:

Manually narrow down available selections to those with Pre Match Over 1.5 Goals odds 1.30 and above ONLY.

This is an important part of the strategy in that it gives a better chance of the Second Half Over 0.5 Goals price not being so short that we have to wait well in to the second half for the trade to match on profitable odds.

The aim being the trade is matched as early as possible, maximising the exposure in the trade and the chance of a winning trade.

This also helps to keep the trade volume down, hopefully resulting in getting only quality prices over quantity.

Double check the previous 5 (or more if inclined) league match second half results for each team via the Sofa Score app. That’s the last 5 home matches for home and last 5 away matches for away. They should all qualify for a second half goal/s.

  • DO NOT trade matches where BOTH teams show an overwhelming trend of conceding a second half goal and not scoring any.

Check the number of remaining league games the teams have. Question the motivation of each team to need to win from 5-1 games left. I will generally be trading 4-5 matches left but disregarding 3-1 matches left unless either team has an incentive to win.

Checking the second half goal trend and remaining matches can be done quickly via the Sofa Score app.

Rules:

Narrow down filter selections to those with Pre Match O1.5 Goals Odds 1.30 and above.

Disregard matches where both teams have only been conceding second half goals

Disregard the last 3 matches of the season unless one or both teams have an incentive to win.

Place an Order/Keep Bet at Half Time on the applicable Over 0.5 Goals Market for 1.40 regardless of the score line.

If/When matched, allow the trade to run for the remainder of the match (Do not trade out).

If there is a Goal, the trade has won.

If there is a Goal before the trade is matched, DO NOT TRADE the match.

I’ll do my best to keep this thread updated as timely as possible. The match stats will always be updated On the spreadsheet for anyone to view, and I’ll test/paper trade as many selections as possible around other commitments/work. I may also be amending this initial post if rules/approach or anything else etc. needs to change.

Link to the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BNGw098lpAa1_ynGCGOkNDcgVA1rhURk0Yt92Q7fAto/edit?usp=sharing

Will it work? Let’s see how it goes…

last edited by Chris King
Level 19

Thur 29/09/22 Selections. Early Morning. Evening.0_1664367976161_8E3F3DBF-3A9F-4985-B2BA-5ABA510C3F02.jpeg

Level 19

Wed 28/09/22 Selections. Evening.
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last edited by Chris King
Level 19

Tue 27/09/22Selections. Evening.
0_1664279387518_FFF1D67B-010A-4C54-A64C-7727A8BD2FB8.jpeg

last edited by Chris King
Level 19

Tue 27/09/22 Selections. Early Morning.
0_1664216279545_3C918667-6CE6-4456-BB01-80C662950DF1.jpeg

Level 19

Mon 26/09/22 Selections. Evening.
0_1664137583066_3F26B063-B3F6-48B8-9A50-5B531422F95F.jpeg

last edited by Chris King
Level 19

Sun 25/09/22 Selections. Evening.
0_1664104058397_3E881EB1-6B08-4072-9C26-3BCAE86FA019.jpeg

last edited by Chris King
Level 19

Sun 25/09/22 Selections. Early Morning.0_1664055939366_0BE803AF-373D-4A9F-9A22-39A563047648.jpeg
Afternoon/Evening Selections to be updated.

last edited by Chris King
Level 19

@gary-finnigan-0 said in First Blog - Second Half Goal Any Score Line:

@Chris-King how do we view red cards in first half? would it be a no trade ?

To be honest, at the moment I’m just testing the selections despite what may happen in the first half. I have no rule when it comes to them.
I know some like to give the trade a miss or trade out if there is a red card so it’s up to you i would say. Personally for red’s i judge them on a case by case basis.

Level 19

@Chris-King how do we view red cards in first half? would it be a no trade ?

Level 10

Sat 24/09/22 Selections.
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Level 19

Fri 23/09/22 Selections.
0_1663938378601_325ACD9F-2F67-4DCE-8EEB-E64B35AEBB1E.jpeg

Level 19

Thur 22/09/22 No Selections.

Level 19

Wed 21/09/22 No Selections.

Level 19

Tue 20/09/2022 Selections.
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Level 19

@gary-finnigan-0 said in First Blog - Second Half Goal Any Score Line:

@chris-king any reason why you removed the Uruguay game ?

It’s the penultimate game of the season for them, and from what I can tell there is nothing glaringly obvious in terms of either having anything to play for, despite them both qualifying on O1.5G pre match odds and when double checking Sofa Score SHG’s for both teams, both weren’t serial goal conceders only.

I need to make a decision on how many games left in a season not to trade and haven’t quite done that yet but will add it to the rules when I do. I’m thinking starting to question them on 5-4 games left and then avoiding from 3-1. You sometimes get goal-fests in end of season games but sometimes the opposite or a load of first half goals then nothing second half.

Plus this filter is not necessarily a multi-goals filter, it’s just one that identifies a goal has been scored in the second half in the last 5 matches of each team which is all That’s needed for a winning trade.

My thinking behind it is that the teams in the selections have something about them that has lead to a consistent second half goal. Not necessarily them being high scorers.

Having said that it’ll probably be a perfect trade! But there will always be another just around the corner.
I was tempted to just go for it but made the decision and moved on to check over the next match.

last edited by Chris King
Level 19

@chris-king any reason why you removed the Uruguay game ?

Level 10

Mon 19/09/2022 No Selections.

Tue 20/09/2022 Overnight/Early Morning Selections.
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last edited by Chris King
Level 19

Sun 18/09/2022 Selections.
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Level 19

Sat 17/09/2022 No Selections.

The filter found 13 matches but all had O1.5G BSP well under 1.30. At least, the narrowing down is working 🤣

Also noticed Betfair also seems to have ditched the Singapore premier League the past 2-3 days

last edited by Chris King
Level 19

@ryan said in First Blog - Second Half Goal Any Score Line:

@chris-king said in First Blog - Second Half Goal Any Score Line:

@ryan Thanks! Hopefully it can be something good, but even if it bombs, I’m still going to learn more than i know already.

Exactly!

When you have a blog like this it helps make you accountable to you'll more likely stick with the strategy, which is only a good thing and most likely you'll spot more 😉

It's also great because others love reading these posts and following along they might even spot something.

Yes, it’s already having a positive and more structured effect on my approach compared other things I’ve been doing, plus had decent advice right from the start.

Level 19
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