Im focusing on U3.5 as my strategy and typically I'll exit if two goals go in before the 70th minute. Is this a good plan or is there a better way to deal with exiting this trade?
Hi James, you make some very interesting points. However im a bit of a thicko, so stats just keeps making me zzzzzzzzz.....see, it happened again! For me, if theres no clear favourite, i'll back U3.5....or if there's money in it, U4.5.....or U5.5. My qualifying factor is 'can i make a quid out of this' and i'll throw a fiver at it.
I'd love to work out a sheet on my results but the passengers on my bus keep me busy for 11 hours a day. By the time i get to enter 2 games onto an excel sheet, I've already traded 10 games . I get more wins than losses and im hoping that over time that translates to a growing bankroll.
Btw i'm hoping to cure that stat problem with a 14 week holiday staring next week....either it's going to show me that i'm the trading genius i've dreamed of being or it'll be a cure for my insomnia. Win / win from where i'm sitting
@julian-drake-clarke I'm working on getting to know O/U 3.5MG as well. Testing a few variations/entry and exit points, trying to find a S&F that works.
You really really need to start tracking the results though. Some leagues are far better than others at U3.5 - mainly in South America. That said, that's only from starting tracking properly in mid April, so as far as Europe goes and the winter leagues, I caught the end of the season where the average GPG rises a bit so it might perform better that it had.
I've got now over 10,000 records of how results perform against my filters and it's safe to say, even with the filters, doing all the matches it suggested would have wiped me out.
In terms of a 70m exit after 2 goals, as Martin said it depends on what you're looking for and what the strategy is. Certainly there's a case for a 70 exit - a 3rd goal and the match won't go green until about the 89th minute! But what you should do is model the number of games on your strategy that have 2 goals after 70, what your losses would be vs the opportunity cost of a 70 min exit.
Well, I'm averaging about 55 selections a day, which I've been doing for the past 2 weeks @ U3.5. Starting bank roll was £100, then i added another £50 over the weekend and lost £35 (my biggest loss of the past 12 months!) because I didn't 'Bet&Forget' but kept sticking my oar in every 15 mins. That's something I have to work on. However, I've started also doing U4.5 which is surprisingly lucrative. When I'm using your U3.5 filter, I can easily go with £10 on U4.5 and cash out at £1.
I've tried tracking my progress on an Excel sheet but that didn't last long. By the time I'd entered the first game, two games had gone by and I really didn't have time to backtrack to find a result. One fine day I may get into doing that and I do realise its importance but for now its going to have to wait.
So, 2 key things I'm going to be working on...
- Bet and bloody forget, I've go to stop checking back every 15 mins until the wife thinks I'm creating a Tinder profile so I can replace her!
- Break out of bank roll; Anything above £100 I'd be happy with but I keep ending the day with approx. the same that I started with. I'm aware I'm in the 'Grind' phase of my trading career, so I'm happy to keep on keeping on.
Right now, I'm having fun working out what works (I'm just posting emoji's I've never used before, don't read too much into it )
@julian-drake-clarke depends on the strategy and your testing results, how is it going so far? how many selections?