Terrible July
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Has any one else experienced a terrible month on the horses with the strategies they use?
I’ve had a bad month on the horses and my theory is that the ground has been consistently good or firm however I could be clutching at straws and it could just be variance causing the bad month
Any one got any thoughts on this?
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@paul-scott sorry I wasn't talking about July specifically I was just talk about how different months can have different results based on time of year
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It’s very interesting to see that other people have had a poor July, will be interesting to see how it goes over the next week or two now that we have had some rain it’ll test my theory of consistent weather
@Martin not sure why the football follows a similar trend be interesting to see if you find anything out
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@dan-mackinnon Ahahahahahaha I would LOVE a BTC Boardroom!
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@paul-scott time of year is definitely a factor I want to look into more with my strategies, I've seen similar in some strategies for football.
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I’m just trying to find a reason for it and can’t seem to come up with one, it doesn’t bother me too much as overall past couple of months show a very small profit, just really frustrating trying to pin it down!
I’m still wondering if the weather can be blamed lol trying to figure out to how to reduce the amount of losses and I think the ground is one of the most important variable in a horse race
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@dan-mackinnon love that quote
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@dan-mackinnon said in Terrible July:
@john-folan now that Ryan is using his business jargon, how does it look over the past quarter? (and can you show it on a flip graph and present it in the BTC boardroom. There will be coffee and pastries, but none for you unfortunately)
I know I used to get really wound up about bad months, but I try to remember - Our minds love to try and make patterns, but variance is random, and it wouldn't be random if there was a pattern
Past quarter is all sweet
Stick that quote in your signature so everyone can see it everytime you post
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@john-folan now that Ryan is using his business jargon, how does it look over the past quarter? (and can you show it on a flip graph and present it in the BTC boardroom. There will be coffee and pastries, but none for you unfortunately)
I know I used to get really wound up about bad months, but I try to remember - Our minds love to try and make patterns, but variance is random, and it wouldn't be random if there was a pattern
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I’m having a bad month on the short odds lays, they are 2 points down after a storming May/June where they did out perform so probably a reversion to the mean. The flat pace is about 7 points in profit. Slow horses is steady as she goes. Seems to be a lot of favourites winning this month(although that might just be me seeing it like that as I’m laying them). I wouldn’t read too much into it. Flat Pace is pretty consistent with last July which is interesting and probably a bit comforting.
With backing systems it can seem worse with the lower strike rates 20-30% as you potentially could have(more than) 70 losers before you hit a winner(unlikely but you need to get your head around that).
It’s probably not unlike a couple of weeks of laying the SHG and getting clobbered as what seems to happen with football. Losers and winners seem to cluster.
Might just be that. Have a look at your individual strategies and have they behaved like this or similarly before? Download the individual results and highlight the losers in red. Hopefully give you some comfort
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I wish I could add something educated to this post for you I think @Adam & @John-folan will be your guys.
