Beginner Trading Journey
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So after a long period of strategy creating and testing. I am ready to go live with them all.
Here are all my picks for today/tomorrow morning:
Over 1.5 (1 point stake)
Hallescher Ingolstadt
SG Dynamo Dresden Wehen
Lechia Gdansk Zaglebie
Bucaramanga U. Magdalena
Deportes Tolima Petrolera
Toronto FC New England Revolution
Once Caldas Junior
Yokohama M. KyotoFHG (0.8 point stake)
FC Botosani U. Cluj
Gwangju FC Daejeon
Kassel Mainz II
FSV Frankfurt TuS RW Koblenz
Hallescher Ingolstadt
Straelen Lippstadt
Ahlen Dusseldorf II
AC Milan Lazio
Covilha Oliveirense
SC Freiburg RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg Union Berlin
B. Monchengladbach Bochum
Vlasim Sigma Olomouc B
Michalovce Trencin
AS Roma Inter
Leczna Podbeskidzie
Cremonese Spezia
Toronto FC New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls Philadelphia Union
San Jose Earthquakes Los Angeles FC
Charlotte New York City
Nashville SC Chicago Fire
Kumamoto Kofu
Machida Okayama
Kusatsu Renofa Yamaguchi
Albirex Niigata Kashiwa
Omiya Ardija Tokushima
C-Osaka Kashima
Yokohama M. Kyoto
Kawasaki Frontale Sagan TosuSHG (1 point stake)
Nagoya G-Osaka
Tobol K. Almaty
Teplice FK Pardubice
Zrinjski Sloboda
Ostrava Brno
Zlin Jablonec
FC Augsburg Union Berlin
Hoffenheim Eintracht Frankfurt
Hertha Berlin VfB Stuttgart
B. Monchengladbach Bochum
Forfar Athletic East Fife
Albion Rovers Stirling
Bonnyrigg Rose Elgin City
Ruzomberok Skalica
Michalovce Trencin
Mineros Dep. Tachira
Hiroshima Avispa Fukuoka
Albirex Niigata Kashiwa
C-Osaka Kashima
Yokohama M. Kyoto
Kawasaki Frontale Sagan Tosu70+ mins (0.4 point stake)
Nagoya G-Osaka
Bangkok Utd Muang Thong Utd
Tobol K. Almaty
Koln II Fortuna Koln
Ujpest Vasas
Ahlen Dusseldorf II
Ostrava Brno
Mjondalen K. Oslo
Zlin Jablonec
Beitar Jerusalem Maccabi Bnei Raina
Michalovce Trencin
Paris FC Grenoble
St Etienne Guingamp
Amiens Sochaux
Laval Bastia
Ferencvaros Kisvarda
U. Catolica Dep. Cuenca
Bucaramanga U. Magdalena
Tomayapo Wilstermann
Gualaceo Ind. del Valle
Yokohama M. KyotoOver 2.5 (0.4 point stake)
Hallescher Ingolstadt
Zwickau Mannheim
SG Dynamo Dresden Wehen
FC Augsburg Union Berlin
Antalyaspor Besiktas
Boavista Estoril
Tristan Suarez Ferro
Benfica Braga
Oita KanazawaI will be posting results every week as I don't like to look every day for mentalilty reasons.
Good luck for today everyone!
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Long time since posting on this. Been moving house so have been quite busy of late.
Since 22nd October, I have been testing a number of strategies (below) using my data set that goes back to May 22:
Over 1.5
Under 1.5
FHG
SHG
Over 2.5
Under 2.5I’m just wondering how long you give a strategy before getting rid? The over and under 2.5’s are both 15 points down already using 2 point stakes.
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Currently playing round with my spreadsheet using standard deviation and coefficient of variation (CV) to give a numerical value to the consistency of a leagues results.
Has anyone used this before and if so, what’s a good percentage to aim for?
For example, I have 93 over 1.5 results for Sweden Superettan which would yield approx 12.7 points profit. But the CV is 168.15% which suggests the results are quite inconsistent.
Not sure this is something I build in to the filter or just have it there as a reminder to take caution on the more inconsistent leagues
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@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:
Week 3:
-17.46pts
Worst week of the data set by far
Probably worth monitoring international breaks, I'm not surprised by this
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Week 3:
-17.46pts
Worst week of the data set by far
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@stephen-oleary that’s a great analogy actually!
Even just laying the data out in a time frame has really helped as I can see a bad day or a good day relative to past results -
@connor-garland Id even go monthly or quarter I was recording my results daily on my racing and football trades and found i got frustrated some days to the point i tried chasing loses(a big problem i still have usually after a few pints) I have found if i record everything on the 1st Monday of every month i see a bigger picture, a more reliable structure on my results and a more accurate assessment on my strategies. Starting in the new year im going to go ever 3 months (thats the limit on betfair australia to get your P&L data).
Th way i see it is when someone starts a new job you dont base there performane on a day to day outcome you base it on what they have done over 3 months and then with that 3 month data you can then break it down the monthly daily even hourly. -
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Week 2:
+27.84pts
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@connor-garland yeah sounds like amazing stuff so far!
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@martin the data set goes back to the beginning of May. I’m using small stakes for another couple of months until I commit to it with a bigger bank.
The back test looks really consistent over the longer term. I was getting caught up on the results of a couple of days but putting a bit of analysis on the results has really helped me with ‘typical’ results daily, weekly and monthly
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@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:
I am only going to be posting weekly updates from now on as I think it’ll help me to not focus on daily results.
I’ve noticed that’s a problem off mine, I’ll have a bad day, get frustrated, think there’s something wrong with the strategy and therefore re-do the filtering so it’s a been bit of a rollercoaster.
Just going to stick to this current strategy and compare the results per week. I’ve done a bit of analysis on the spreadsheet to give me an indication of what weekly results to expect and determine what’s actually a bad week and a good week.
Would love to hear what you guys think?
sounds like a plan, how long have you been testing these?
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Week update:
-0.46pts
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I am only going to be posting weekly updates from now on as I think it’ll help me to not focus on daily results.
I’ve noticed that’s a problem off mine, I’ll have a bad day, get frustrated, think there’s something wrong with the strategy and therefore re-do the filtering so it’s a been bit of a rollercoaster.
Just going to stick to this current strategy and compare the results per week. I’ve done a bit of analysis on the spreadsheet to give me an indication of what weekly results to expect and determine what’s actually a bad week and a good week.
Would love to hear what you guys think?
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@martin I’ve definitely discovered that I lean more to the side of ‘I might just give up’ rather than chasing losses.
Saying that, I know there’s money to be made in this dataset which keeps me going! Just got a few more lessons to learn really
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@connor-garland
onwards and upwards! 
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-12.73pts yesterday, bit of a rollercoaster
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@chris-osborne think I best take a deep dive in to when to stop trading the leagues and make note so I’m not making mistakes like that again!
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@connor-garland Finland and Iceland also finish next week other than play offs; winter leagues start hitting filters anytime now
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@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:
@connor-garland realised there’s only 3 games left in South Korea, shouldn’t be trading them and the results will probably show it!
Yep 9 points lost
