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Beginner Trading Journey

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Members Trading Plans / Accountability / Blogs /
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  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by Connor Garland
    #1

    Trading Plan:

    So after a full year of collecting data and testing I feel as if I am ready to go live with my strategies.

    I have moved to a different area and started a business that offers me flexibility whilst paying for the bills, I'm in a great spot to go part time with my trading.

    Strategies:
    Over the past year, I have been collecting a whole load of data on games that have 50+% overall over 1.5 goals (min odds 1.15) on one sheet and 40+% overall over 2.5 goals (min odds 1.5) on another.

    I have gone live a couple of times with a couple of different strategies using a small bankroll and sensible staking but none of them really stuck due to inconsistency or oversights but this has been good for me in developing my mentality, following the rules of my strategies and how to deal with the bad streaks

    Link to data/strategies/results here:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AL1o0CJhITwfv5a2MVNJwOYVCUH03HSVj6b9uBAj_vc/edit#gid=108219148

    These are my strategies:

    • Over 1.5 goals - 1 point stake per trade

    • FHG - 0.8 point stake per trade

    • SHG - 1 point stake per trade

    • 70+ min goal - 0.4 point stake per trade

    • Over 2.5 goals - 0.4 point stake per trade

    Staking Plan:
    I will be starting with a £5,000 bankroll. Every £500 increase or decrease in bankroll, I will round up or down the stakes to the nearest £1000, e.g. bankroll decreases to £4500, I will use £40 per point.

    I will be posting my selections everyday and my results every week on this thread for some accountability.

    RyanR MartinM 2 Replies Last reply
    9
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #2

    I am a bit wound up today so won't be trading!

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #3

    Week 4 roundup (28/05/23-03/06/23):

    Over 1.5

    7/11 winners
    63.63% strike rate
    P/L = -2.35 points

    FHG

    20/30 winners
    66.66% strike rate
    P/L = -0.75 points

    SHG

    12/15 winners
    80% strike rate
    P/L = -0.21 points

    Over 2.5

    10/19 winners
    52.63% strike rate
    P/L = -1.13 points

    Overall
    P/L = -4.44 points

    Shocking week

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by Connor Garland
    #4

    Here are all my picks for today/tomorrow morning (03/06/2023 - 04/06/2023):

    Over 1.5 (1.25 point stake)

    Yokohama Sagan Tosu
    Kashiwa Sapporo

    FHG (0.6 point stake)

    Suwon Bluewings Suwon City
    Yokohama Sagan Tosu
    Kashiwa Sapporo
    Jeju Utd Gangwon
    Okayama Tokushima
    Gwangju FC Pohang
    HJK SJK
    New York City New England Revolution
    Seattle Sounders Portland Timbers
    Minnesota Toronto FC
    Hiroshima Kyoto
    Urawa Kashima

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Avispa Fukuoka G-Osaka
    Yokohama Sagan Tosu
    Kashiwa Sapporo
    Tobol Kyzylzhar
    Ordabasy Atyrau
    Hiroshima Kyoto
    Urawa Kashima

    Over 2.5 (0.4 point stake)

    AC Oulu Mariehamn
    Deportivo Riestra Gimnasia Jujuy
    Royal Pari Nacional Potosi
    Manaus Volta Redonda
    America MG Corinthians
    Atletico-PR Botafogo RJ

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #5

    Here are all my picks for today/tomorrow morning (02/06/2023 - 03/06/2023):

    FHG (0.6 point stake)

    Athlone Longford
    Bray Galway
    Wexford Cobh Ramblers
    Kobe Kawasaki Frontale
    Nagoya C-Osaka

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Kedah Sabah
    Kelantan United Kelantan
    Stjarnan KA Akureyri
    Athlone Longford
    Bray Galway
    Wexford Cobh Ramblers
    Breidablik Vikingur Reykjavik
    Valur Hafnarfjordur
    Kobe Kawasaki Frontale
    Nagoya C-Osaka

    Over 2.5 (0.4 point stake)

    Kedah Sabah
    Kelantan United Kelantan
    Bray Galway
    Athlone Longford
    UC Dublin St. Patricks
    Shamrock Rovers Dundalk
    Jeonbuk Ulsan Hyundai
    Suwon Bluewings Suwon City

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #6

    Here are all my picks for today/tomorrow morning (01/06/2023 - 02/06/2023):

    Over 1.5 (1.25 point stake)

    GAIS Orgryte

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Vestmannaeyjar Kopavogur
    Fylkir KR Reykjavik

    Over 2.5 (0.4 point stake)

    Fylkir KR Reykjavik

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by Connor Garland
    #7

    Here are all my picks for today/tomorrow morning (31/05/2023 - 01/06/2023):

    Over 1.5 (1.25 point stake)

    Gefle Sundsvall
    Utsikten Orebro
    Atlanta United New England Revolution
    New York City Cincinnati
    Inter Miami CF New York Red Bulls
    Philadelphia Union Charlotte
    Columbus Crew Colorado Rapids

    FHG (0.6 point stake)

    Urawa Hiroshima
    Nam Dinh Hong Linh Ha Tinh
    Ho Chi Minh Da Nang
    New York City Cincinnati
    Inter Miami CF New York Red Bulls
    Philadelphia Union Charlotte
    DC United Montreal Impact
    Vancouver Whitecaps Houston Dynamo

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Urawa Hiroshima

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #8

    Based on the below results, I will be increasing my over 1.5 strategy stake to 1.25 points per trade and decreasing the FHG strategy stake to 0.6 points per trade.

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #9

    Third week roundup (21/05/23-28/05/23):

    Over 1.5

    11/12 winners
    91.66% strike rate
    P/L = +2.56 points

    FHG

    23/36 winners
    63.88% strike rate
    P/L = -2.2 points

    SHG

    18/20 winners
    90% strike rate
    P/L = +2.14 points

    Over 2.5

    10/25 winners
    40% strike rate
    P/L = -2.69 points

    Overall
    P/L = -0.17 points

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #10

    Second week roundup (13/05/23-20/05/23):

    Over 1.5

    13/14 winners
    92.85% strike rate
    P/L = +2.92 points

    FHG

    28/48 winners
    58.33% strike rate
    P/L = -6.42 points

    SHG

    11/13 winners
    84.61% strike rate
    P/L = +0.7 points

    Over 2.5

    17/31 winners
    54.83% strike rate
    P/L = +0.9 points

    Overall
    P/L = -1.41 points

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #11

    Just the one today:

    FHG (0.8 point stake)

    Binh Dinh Hai Phong

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #12

    Here are all my picks for today/tomorrow morning (29/05/2023 - 30/05/2023):

    Over 1.5 (1 point stake)

    Vikingur Reykjavik Valur

    FHG (0.8 point stake)

    Pohang Jeonbuk

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Vikingur Reykjavik Valur

    Over 2.5 (0.4 point stake)

    Vikingur Reykjavik Valur
    KA Akureyri Fram

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #13

    My selections for today/tomorrow morning:

    FHG (0.8 point stake)

    Seoul Gangwon
    Suwon City Gwangju FC
    Ulsan Hyundai Daejeon
    Levadia Kalju
    Sporting Kansas City Portland Timbers
    Nashville SC Columbus Crew

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Okzhetpes Tobol
    Fylkir Vestmannaeyjar

    Over 2.5 Goals (0.4 point stake)

    Suwon City Gwangju FC
    Ulsan Hyundai Daejeon
    Fylkir Vestmannaeyjar
    KR Reykjavik Stjarnan
    Atletico-MG Palmeiras
    Bragantino Santos
    Nacional Potosi Guabira
    Botafogo RJ America MG

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by Connor Garland
    #14

    Here are all my picks from today/tomorrow morning (27/05/2023 - 28/05/2023):

    Over 1.5 (1 point stake)

    Kyoto Urawa
    Jonkoping Brage
    Trelleborg Vasteras SK
    Toronto FC DC United
    Seattle Sounders New York Red Bulls

    FHG (0.8 point stake)

    Sagan Tosu Kashima
    Kyoto Urawa
    Tammeka Kuressaare
    Mariehamn HJK
    Flora Tallinna Kalev
    Ypiranga FC Manaus
    Toronto FC DC United
    Montreal Impact Inter Miami CF
    San Jose Earthquakes FC Dallas
    Minnesota Real Salt Lake
    Seattle Sounders New York Red Bulls
    Tokushima Machida
    Blaublitz Oita
    Yokohama M. Avispa Fukuoka
    Albirex Niigata G-Osaka
    Mito Renofa Yamaguchi

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Sagan Tosu Kashima
    Kyoto Urawa
    Albirex Niigata G-Osaka
    Yokohama M. Avispa Fukuoka

    Over 2.5 Goals (0.4 point stake)

    Longford Waterford
    Cuiaba Esporte Coritiba
    Flamengo RJ Cruzeiro
    Shimizu Kanazawa
    Mito Renofa Yamaguchi

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #15

    Here are all my picks for today/tomorrow morning (26/05/2023 - 27/05/2023):

    FHG (0.8 point stake)

    Galway Athlone
    Sapporo Nagoya

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Suduva Dziugas Telsiai
    Bray Cobh Ramblers
    Galway Athlone
    Sapporo Nagoya
    Hiroshima Shonan

    Over 2.5 (0.4 point stake)

    Galway Athlone

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by Connor Garland
    #16

    Here are all my picks for today/tomorrow morning (25/05/2023 - 26/05/2023):

    Over 1.5 (1 point stake)

    KA Akureyri Vikingur Reykjavik

    SHG (1 point stake)

    KA Akureyri Vikingur Reykjavik
    Breidablik Valur

    Over 2.5 (0.4 point stake)

    Breidablik Valur

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #17

    Just a couple of selections today:

    FHG (0.8 point stake)

    Terengganu Penang

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Terengganu Penang

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #18

    Only the one selection today:

    FHG (0.8 point stake)

    Narva Flora

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #19

    Here are all my picks for today/tomorrow morning (22/05/2023 - 23/05/2023):

    Over 1.5 (1 point stake)

    KTP SJK

    FHG (0.8 point stake)

    KTP SJK

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Vestmannaeyjar Hafnarfjordur
    Fram KR Reykjavik

    Over 2.5 (0.4 point stake)

    Haka VPS

    1 Reply Last reply
    2
  • Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor GarlandC Offline
    Connor Garland
    wrote on last edited by
    #20

    Seems as if I had forgotten to post yesterday, so here are all my picks from yesterday and today/tomorrow morning (20/05/2023 - 22/05/2023):

    Over 1.5 (1 point stake)

    Kashima FC Tokyo
    KuPS Lahti
    New York Red Bulls Montreal Impact
    DC United Los Angeles Galaxy
    Cincinnati Columbus Crew
    Ilves HJK
    Kopavogur Vikingur Reykjavik

    FHG (0.8 point stake)

    Incheon Gwangju FC
    Seoul Jeju Utd
    Daejeon Daegu
    Suduva Zalgiris
    Oleksandriya Dyn. Kiev
    FC Astana Kyzylzhar
    DC United Los Angeles Galaxy
    Cincinnati Columbus Crew
    Oita V-Varen Nagasaki
    Suwon Bluewings Ulsan Hyundai
    Okayama Kusatsu
    Tobol Maqtaaral
    Tammeka Levadia
    Ilves HJK
    Umraniyespor Ankaragucu
    Antalyaspor Basaksehir

    SHG (1 point stake)

    Kashima FC Tokyo
    Kashiwa Kobe
    Sagan Tosu Albirex Niigata
    G-Osaka Yokohama M.
    Suduva Zalgiris
    FC Astana Kyzylzhar
    Tobol Maqtaaral
    K. Almaty Kaisar Kyzylorda
    Breidablik KA Akureyri
    Kopavogur Vikingur Reykjavik

    Over 2.5 Goals (0.4 point stake)

    Seoul Jeju Utd
    Daejeon Daegu
    Galatasaray Sivasspor
    Agropecuario Alvarado
    Bragantino Atletico-PR
    Botafogo RJ Fluminense
    America MG Fortaleza
    Santos Palmeiras
    Montedio Yamagata Blaublitz
    Suwon Bluewings Ulsan Hyundai
    Ilves HJK
    Vestmannaeyjar Hafnarfjordur
    Antalyaspor Basaksehir
    Chacarita Juniors Brown Adrogue
    Blooming Aurora
    Flamengo RJ Corinthians

    1 Reply Last reply
    0

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