Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@John-Folan said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@Danny-Bridges I had a mess about with BSP and got this rules_export (6).json
You can forward test it, but seems to follow your approach. The only issue is how do you know who the favourite is depending on when you place the bets?
Ideally need a horse metric that does well no matter the metric or the BSP price/ranking. I looked at Jockey allowances earlier. It did well but only thanks to a couple of 1000 BSP wins
Isn't that the dream though? 1000 BSP win.
That would be the best day of trading if that ever happened to me. Obviously I'll need to start trading BSP, but you live in hope that one day BF might just balls up the pricing and give me odds of 1,000
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@Joseph-Henderson said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
I was wondering if someone could help me with my understanding of the Max Drawdown feature in the software.
It's calculated as the difference between the peak and trough values of your bank, expressed as a percentage.
E.g. Your bank starts at Ā£5000. It increases to Ā£7500 at some point, before dropping to Ā£4000. Then it rebounds to Ā£6000 before dropping again to Ā£3500.
The drawdown is calculated as (3500 - 7500) / 7500. In this case 53.33%.
It's measuring the drawdown between Ā£7500 and Ā£3500. The second peak of Ā£6000 isn't considered because it doesn't represent a new high.
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@Danny-Bridges I had a mess about with BSP and got this rules_export (6).json
You can forward test it, but seems to follow your approach. The only issue is how do you know who the favourite is depending on when you place the bets?
Ideally need a horse metric that does well no matter the metric or the BSP price/ranking. I looked at Jockey allowances earlier. It did well but only thanks to a couple of 1000 BSP wins
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@Danny-Bridges I had a mess about with BSP and got this rules_export (6).json
You can forward test it, but seems to follow your approach. The only issue is how do you know who the favourite is depending on when you place the bets?
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@Danny-Bridges ah I see what you mean, hard to know what BSP will be isn't it. How have your searches gone so far?
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@John-Folan @Martin Thanks both for your reply's. I just managed to import the 5f strategy and has decent results but the criteria is very specific from what I can see. I might be trying to live in dreamland but trying to formulate a strategy that ticks over based on set criteria and profitable at BSP so therefore is not reliant on a price range being criteria being met which requires you to be on the button right before the off.
This is not a live example but could be something along the lines of:
runners: 2-8
courses: Kempton, Newcastle, Lingfield, Doncaster.
Age: 4-6
Race distance: 6fThis way your only real variable you have to be aware of is the runners in case there is a race which has 10 runners and contains some qualifiers but would only then hit your criteria if 2 or more non runners.
Hopefully the above makes sense but like I say I will keep dreaming and endeavour to find a strategy like this!
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@Danny-Bridges said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Hi @John-Folan - Hope you are well! Sorry to be so direct but I can see you are an active member on BTC so just wanted to reach out to see if you have any Solid "set and forget" strategies for Horse Racing you have formulated over the time you have been with BTC? I am not an experienced trader so never really dabbled with the scalping, Dobs, Trobs etc but quite like the idea of a "set and forget" strategy that just ticks along nicely. Anything you can share or pointers on how you would tackle finding a set and forget strategy would be appreciated. Thanks, Danny.
Hello,
I do have a couple of set and forgets but looking at what you are after I donāt think they would work. Mine rely on automation and bet windows a little before the race starts. The 5 furlong backs might not be a terrible place to start though especially if you are looking for a backing strategy. -
@Danny-Bridges only straight backs one I use is the 5 furlong one, selections aren't mega regular as not many of those races but it has had a very good return for me so far, still testing at small stakes though:
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@Martin No, all manual placing of bets and all done at BSP with my current strategy. I often like to work on the Backing side as that allows me to place my bets each morning at roughly 10am then allows me to crack on with my day job without much fuss. Due to some of the criteria linked to my main strategy such as the number or runners in a race I do have to sometimes come check any races that may have been just outside the qualifying criteria in case there have been any non-runners since the time I checked for my qualifiers.
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@Danny-Bridges are you using automation?
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Hi @John-Folan - Hope you are well! Sorry to be so direct but I can see you are an active member on BTC so just wanted to reach out to see if you have any Solid "set and forget" strategies for Horse Racing you have formulated over the time you have been with BTC? I am not an experienced trader so never really dabbled with the scalping, Dobs, Trobs etc but quite like the idea of a "set and forget" strategy that just ticks along nicely. Anything you can share or pointers on how you would tackle finding a set and forget strategy would be appreciated. Thanks, Danny.
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My Days 20 tick attempts b2l
personal choices not filters14.33 Exeter.........Heure De Gloire
14.40 Lingfield......Baileys Warrior
15.15 Lingfield......Miss Sligo
15.40 Exeter.........Robyndzone
15.47 Lingfield......Wadacre Grace
15.47 Lingfield......Shot Of Love
16.33 Exeter.........Augharue
16.50 Lingfield......Sir Titan
16.55 Wolverhampton..Pop Dancer
17.30 Wolverhampton..Vitaline
18.30 Wolverhampton..Hill Station
19.30 Wolverhampton..Midnight Shimmer
20.00 Wolverhampton..Rothay Park -
@Joseph-Henderson said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
I was wondering if someone could help me with my understanding of the Max Drawdown feature in the software. I want to know what the Max Drawdown of my strategy is so I know how much to stake per bet, to stay within a Max Drawdown I am comfortable with. I am struggling to understand how to work out the Max Drawdown for a strategy however, as the time period you assume and the software figure vs calculating it manually in Excel (using John Folan's Excel template) show quite different figures:
The figures above assume Ā£1 flat stakes based on assumed bank of Ā£100 (i.e. 1%).
Any advice appreciated! Thanks
I know my method calculates based on highest peak to lowest trough. Adam's has something to do with the longest losing run
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@Joseph-Henderson I'll tag @Adam
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I was wondering if someone could help me with my understanding of the Max Drawdown feature in the software. I want to know what the Max Drawdown of my strategy is so I know how much to stake per bet, to stay within a Max Drawdown I am comfortable with. I am struggling to understand how to work out the Max Drawdown for a strategy however, as the time period you assume and the software figure vs calculating it manually in Excel (using John Folan's Excel template) show quite different figures:
The figures above assume Ā£1 flat stakes based on assumed bank of Ā£100 (i.e. 1%).
Any advice appreciated! Thanks
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i cant beat newcastle officially on banned list
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keep forgetting to pop my b2l stuff working on
14.15 Lingfield....Classic Maestro....yes
14.35 Chelmsford...Beauzon............yes
15.15 Lingfield....So Said I..........yes
16.05 Chelmsford...First Company......yes
18.00 Newcastle....Intervention
18.30 Newcastle....Warminster
19.00 Newcastle....The Gay Blade
20.30 Newcastle....Mews Housemy 2 hated b2l tracks ON FLAT
1st 4 landed for 20 ticks
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@Brigitta-Nagy It's not really about how much time has passed, just how many bets there have been. A couple of hundred should be plenty to get a reliable score, and the score of a robust strategy will climb the bigger the sample size gets.
It doesn't necessarily mean you should dump the strategy, but there could be a reason why that set of rules isn't very robust currently. Might be worth having a look at the monthly breakdown and seeing how much variance there is month on month.
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@Adam
1st strategy: 265 trades in 2 months, archie score 1.5, 1 year 1291, archie score 11.
2nd strategy: 578 in 2 months, archie score 1.34, 3643/year, archie score 9.44.so looking at 2 months of results does not give you an accurate answer as to whether you have a good strategy?
