Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@Martin ok, maybe I’ll hang fire on it for now unless you reckon it is worth trialling now?
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@dave-tancock no this is one still in early testing had a decent past couple of months though, need to keep a good eye on it
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@Martin just seen your recent video was looking to try the laying first 2 favourites. Is there a pre-made betangel bot for this strategy?
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@dave-tancock been a bit of a bloodbath me for me in June too, with the PACE and C+D, BUT it will turn just part and parcel of trading!
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Tough month on the horses for me too, heres to a better July
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@Tony-Hastie thanks just wanted to check if it’s tanking or variance as not been trading horses long
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@dave-tancock Ive had 2 winners in the last 25, 4 in the last 32 including a winner @20/1. Its my best racing earner at the moment! I read somewhere to be prepared for a bit more variance with this one so put less of my bank towards it to ride the losses out
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@dave-tancock I run a variant of that and its really storming this month so I think fundamentally the idea is still fine. Remember it's a back strategy so it would only take a couple if winners to reverse that situation.
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Has back the pace horse been struggling? The last 25 or so races have all been losers. Did ok last month but just wondering what others opinions on the strategy are at present
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Yeah, you could be right.
I think setting up my own is the next step. Was just using them as a bit of a guide.
Thanks for the help Paul
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@Joe-Beeston not sure. I don’t use the email. Instead I’ve set up my own and auto export into BFBM. It could be something like non-runners changing the qualifying criteria during the day.
The email is just a snapshot at the time it was run before emailing.
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@Paul-Foster Hi Paul,
Thanks for the answers.
In regards to the email on Back The Fav, the races weren't even the same, so even if the rule is to back the fav of the race at the off, then I would expect the race times to match still?
The email stats 'We know closer to' but I would expect the race times to match.
I think the filter on the presets is on an old filter and if the presets populate the email then that would be why. Martin in his video had a version 4, whereas the preset is still on version 2.
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@Joe-Beeston In answer to your questions:
Q1 - The selection indicates which race to trade and not which horse. You trade on the horse which is fav at the off (or 10-secs before).
Q2 - Correct, you back or lay dependant on the fav been in the odds range at entry time.
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Hi all,
Just of couple of question as I have just upgraded to get the horse racing software as well as the football.
Looking at Back the Fav and Lay the Fav based on your recent youtube video @Martin.
I have taken the JSON files from the above.
Question 1) The Back the Fav selections that I have for today are different to the ones that have gone out on the daily email.
Question 2) The Back The Fav and the Lay The Fav have 3 races today that are the same. So are we saying that if the odds are between 2 and 6 then back and if its between 6.5 and 10 that I lay.Just a couple of questions whilst I am in the early stages of forward testing. Thanks
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@dave-tancock I've added you to the list
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@Karl-Pick
Yep. Crap last month, crap this month. Well, Crap in reality. The software gleefully informs me i have had an OK month this month. Got to download results from yesterday to compare but in reality i lost 19 points yesterday to add to the rest of the crap. As of yesterday my account was just over 50% of what i started with 0n 1st June (£50 down to £29 with a DD from the max of 59%), the software says i should be in a small profit (£53).So today in reality i am at £23.91 and 67% dd. Will see what the software says once i have the results.
I do know what these differences are though so there is a lot of positives to take from this.
1: Unmatched bets. Was a big issue at the start of the month as i was executing to 'best price'. I have now changed to ask for 4 ticks worse and that problem has gone away (probably only while i lose money though. If i bet bigger sizes no doubt it will return).
2: Favourite condition. This is a real pain the backside. I have changed all the strats that use it to be last 10 seconds but every single day if there are selection for those strats i get at least a couple of these and they almost always go against me. Fortunately there is a release on the way (and it cant come soon enough) to eliminate this issue entirely. It may mean when i see the backtest results of whats actually happening i need to revise or bin a strat or 2 but at least i wont continue wasting time and money.
3: Rank criteria and non-runners. Another really massive problem. Every single day this costs me money. i have 3 strats that use ranks (all very good) and the inability to accurately execute really pi**es me off. But, i do have plans and am working to reduce this. I am going to change my execution platform from Fairbot (because i cant modify selections in any automated way once i have set them up initially) to BFBM which looks like it can via the tipsters url. I am also in the final stages of testing a small webservice i wrote which scrapes this site and runs each strat then downloads the 'upcoming qualifiers' results for each strat (as these use data no older than about 15 mins apparently) then i present that in the right format for BFBM to consume. Hopefully that will sort the issue. If not then i have an idea for a small modification that can use modified filters here (still scrape the site) but sort in the webservice in realtime based on a betfair API link (all i need is the free one. Already tested, already get the data anyway and it works) which detetcts the current runners. So, hopefully this one will be under control within a couple of weeks.
4: Fairbot just being crap. Getting a lot of these lately where Fairbot simply doesnt bother executing. The backtest here says a bet should of been placed. The backtest looks to be the correct version of events. All the criteria are met but sometimes Fairbot doesnt even bother to try and place the bet. No idea why. There have been instances on several strats over several races, no apparent pattern, nothing in the fairbot logs.Tried with API_NG and streaming but still no better and its becoming more common. But, since i am binning Fairbot anyway hopefully this will be a thing of the past too.
~Edit
2 points adrift (to the negative of course yesterday). Both due to favourite condition causing me 1 additional losing back bet on 2 races.
This is why we really need to do some form of monte carlo simulation because these small execution errors add up very quickly to very, very big losses.But, as i said. Good points. I do have some profitable strategies (got another good one i am just waiting for an optimal time to add) and although i have execution issues i can do something about them.
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Is anyone else having a really s**t month? Seem to be struggling to get a Winner and the presets C+D and PACE seem to be bombing.
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@Martin I’ve not received the daily horse racing or football emails for at least 7-10 days. I assumed it was to do with the email you sent about what strategies people wanted in them.
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@dave-tancock they've not gone anywhere
