Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@michael-meier said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@greenie
As I understand it, the back testing uses the odds 10 minutes out (like Martin said) BUT base the favourite on BSP.
Atleast it says so below the box here.
This is my reason for letting my bot fire 10 seconds before the off instead of 10 minutes. Different odds but much better chance of correct horse being layed.
Yeah this does conflict, this is a 2.0 version isn't it as I didn't have that in the OG. I think you could change time to 10 seconds before the off and it reduces profit a bit but 72pts profit last month.
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@nick-allan these are members who shared their successful strategies so they have worked for many people.
The strategies are also fairly new, so part of the process is learning how to use them to best effect etc.
Ultimately you don't want to be relying on other people's strategies when all is said and done, how has the work on your own ones been going?
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@greenie said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@nick-allan if you don't mind me asking out of interest which automation bot have you been trying?
bet angel
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@adam said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@nick-allan said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@michael-meier said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
I agree it's tough, but not impossible.
If you remove the 'cannot be 1st or 2nd fav' condition from the filter in the software and move it to your bot instead it can be done.
So basically the new filter gives you all the horses that qualify. Then the bot only lays the horse if it's within the odds range and not the 1st or 2nd fav.nope tried that before and didnt work, it wasnt marketed as tough it was marketed as simple and its anything but. Anyway im keep trying until my subs expire and the hope of success
I'm not sure why his suggestion wouldn't work, in fact it sounds like it is for him?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think essentially you're saying it's "anything but simple" because it doesn't have this one strategy rule that you want to include.
We're very aware of the most popular feature requests and for what it's worth, in a couple of weeks time you will be able to research the favourite and favourite prices at specific times, rather than just at BSP. PLEASE don't string me up if that estimate slips a bit, I am simply saying we're not far off now - I know we have been talking about it for quite a while.
If that strategy rule is the deal breaker that determines whether you get any value out of the software, by all means take a break and ask us to pause your subscription - you can resume as soon as we give you a shout and let you know that feature is ready.
Regarding the simplicity, I do think it's reasonable to say that the software makes it very easy to research this stuff compared to the alternative, which would be manually trawling through Racing Post and matching that data up with the Betfair historical data CSVs price data, or coding your own regression testing model to do the same.
Unfortunately, the sudden ability to backtest so many variables at the click of a button is bound to lead to the sudden discovery of hundreds of strategies that don't work. I'd still rather be able to discover that in 10 minutes and move on, rather than a year!
i agree it does a lot of the researching work for you, and for people familar with horses i bet they love this but im not and to be honest i struggle with the set up, and how to set it up using automation. But hey thats me, maybe it just too difficult for me to understand. Happy to take a break but sadly i have horse and football combimed and im fine with the football side of things
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@nick-allan if you don't mind me asking out of interest which automation bot have you been trying?
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@michael-meier said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@greenie
As I understand it, the back testing uses the odds 10 minutes out (like Martin said) BUT base the favourite on BSP.
Atleast it says so below the box here.
This is my reason for letting my bot fire 10 seconds before the off instead of 10 minutes. Different odds but much better chance of correct horse being layed.
Thanks chaps, it's giving me plenty to think about.
I interpreted the favourites rules as it selects only favourites amd second favourites. Does it actually mean it avoids them?
Sorry for all the questions!
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@martin said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@nick-allan plenty of people have managed it, you are talking as if you are speaking for everyone! not sure why you are suddenly talking like this, all you need to do is reach out if you are struggling
ive reached out and got advice but still i cant make money, There is one startegy that works but i would have to place £60 bets on it as its makes about 1 or 2 pts on average just to cover the software costs but it does have downswings. Not sure id have the bank to support that. I havent been able to make anything near the backtesting. If there are pelenty of people making money i have no idea hiow they are doing it? as i say i have to use automation as i work during the day, i feel you need to be a fulltime trader to get the best out of the software, or maybe its just not right for me as i have a 9-5 job
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@nick-allan said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@michael-meier said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
I agree it's tough, but not impossible.
If you remove the 'cannot be 1st or 2nd fav' condition from the filter in the software and move it to your bot instead it can be done.
So basically the new filter gives you all the horses that qualify. Then the bot only lays the horse if it's within the odds range and not the 1st or 2nd fav.nope tried that before and didnt work, it wasnt marketed as tough it was marketed as simple and its anything but. Anyway im keep trying until my subs expire and the hope of success
I'm not sure why his suggestion wouldn't work, in fact it sounds like it is for him?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think essentially you're saying it's "anything but simple" because it doesn't have this one strategy rule that you want to include.
We're very aware of the most popular feature requests and for what it's worth, in a couple of weeks time you will be able to research the favourite and favourite prices at specific times, rather than just at BSP. PLEASE don't string me up if that estimate slips a bit, I am simply saying we're not far off now - I know we have been talking about it for quite a while.
If that strategy rule is the deal breaker that determines whether you get any value out of the software, by all means take a break and ask us to pause your subscription - you can resume as soon as we give you a shout and let you know that feature is ready.
Regarding the simplicity, I do think it's reasonable to say that the software makes it very easy to research this stuff compared to the alternative, which would be manually trawling through Racing Post and matching that data up with the Betfair historical data CSVs price data, or coding your own regression testing model to do the same.
Unfortunately, the sudden ability to backtest so many variables at the click of a button is bound to lead to the sudden discovery of hundreds of strategies that don't work. I'd still rather be able to discover that in 10 minutes and move on, rather than a year!
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@greenie
As I understand it, the back testing uses the odds 10 minutes out (like Martin said) BUT base the favourite on BSP.
Atleast it says so below the box here.
This is my reason for letting my bot fire 10 seconds before the off instead of 10 minutes. Different odds but much better chance of correct horse being layed.
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@michael-meier ah I see - I completely missed the bit regarding it not being fav or 2nd fav.
I'll need to remove that condition from the filter and add it to my Betangel Automation rule then.
One more question, does the back testing in the horse software therefore show the results based on who was not 1st and 2nd favourite 10 mins befire the off, or based on the SP? I'm just thinking it's likely that a horse that qualifies at 10 mins, may have money come in for it making it a no trade if placing a few seconds befire the off?
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@nick-allan plenty of people have managed it, you are talking as if you are speaking for everyone! not sure why you are suddenly talking like this, all you need to do is reach out if you are struggling
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Well, I'm doing it that way and letting the bot place the bet 10 seconds before the off instead of 10 minutes. I'm getting different odds compared to the backtesting but much higher chance of the correct horse being layed.
I'm just a member like you, so obviously I'm not the guy to talk to about marketing.
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@michael-meier said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
I agree it's tough, but not impossible.
If you remove the 'cannot be 1st or 2nd fav' condition from the filter in the software and move it to your bot instead it can be done.
So basically the new filter gives you all the horses that qualify. Then the bot only lays the horse if it's within the odds range and not the 1st or 2nd fav.oh and if you look at the video that richard has kindly put up in regards to this strategy he doesnt have non fav rule in his automation, as i said before its quite difficult to get an handle on these startegies and its sadly frustrating
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@michael-meier said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
I agree it's tough, but not impossible.
If you remove the 'cannot be 1st or 2nd fav' condition from the filter in the software and move it to your bot instead it can be done.
So basically the new filter gives you all the horses that qualify. Then the bot only lays the horse if it's within the odds range and not the 1st or 2nd fav.nope tried that before and didnt work, it wasnt marketed as tough it was marketed as simple and its anything but. Anyway im keep trying until my subs expire and the hope of success
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I agree it's tough, but not impossible.
If you remove the 'cannot be 1st or 2nd fav' condition from the filter in the software and move it to your bot instead it can be done.
So basically the new filter gives you all the horses that qualify. Then the bot only lays the horse if it's within the odds range and not the 1st or 2nd fav. -
@michael-meier said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@greenie
Here are the rules for 'Lay the Beaten Fav'.
You'll notice that for a selection to qualify it cannot be the 1st or 2nd favourite.
As odds change throughout the day, you'll get different selections depending on what the odds are at that very moment.
basically making it impossible to set your selections before work and it mirroring the software results, makes it very hard to find a sucessful startegy that warrents the monthly price of the software. A shame as i had high hopes when i signed up
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@greenie
Here are the rules for 'Lay the Beaten Fav'.
You'll notice that for a selection to qualify it cannot be the 1st or 2nd favourite.
As odds change throughout the day, you'll get different selections depending on what the odds are at that very moment.
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Quick question regarding the 'lay the beaten favourite' presets;
I know the daily selection email does say that selections may changed throughout the day, however I was wondering if anyone could shed any light on what within this particular strategy causes the selections to change throughout the day?
I went back and checked the software half way through the day and noticed that a couple of additional selections now appear. I've looked through the preset criteria and cannot tell what changes in order for them to not show when the original email is sent, but then appear at a later time throughout the day?
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Excellent, thank you. I'm looking forward to seeing what a difference doing both makes to my profitability!
