Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@robert-h said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
This is a genuine question for everyone who's got the horse trading software? Is anyone out there making actual money on it? I've been testing for nearly four months now using about four or five strategies and hasn't been any that have been consistently profitable and most would have lost quite a bit of money (don’t worry I’m on low stakes). I see there is a lot of information in the chat about strategies that people have been tweaking and showing the backtesting which is great, but are the actually working in a live testing environment? I understand with any new strategy you need to test it for three to four months I totally get that, but sooner or later the software has to show some form of value would you not disagree? And if none of the strategies are profitable then where is the value? Even the pace lays which had a good month last month are having an absolutely dreadful month this month.
So I'm interested to see if anyone is actually making money and on what strategy they are because maybe I'm just looking at the wrong strategies? Another example will be this recent back the favourite on Saturdays, Mondays and Tuesdays, now granted I've only been testing it for two weeks now but it's on like minus 24 points which is some drawdown.
I hope this isn't perceived as negative because it's not meant to be I'm just genuinely interested if anyone is making money in a live environment and it doesn't matter even if their one pound stakes or 50p stakes have they got any strategies that are making some form of profit?
For me I found at the start most the strategies didn't work when forward testing them. I was using strats created by users on here but I now think that most of them were over over filtered mostly with courses being back fitted and some other filter being back fitted. I find alot of the improved ones of the originals posted here just been back fitted with results since the original has been made so of course going to look impressive.
I now try to filter less and only filters that make sense why its happening not just chance. I still might filter courses but have to be losings lots there get removed (ie certain course layouts). I use BF bot manager so now trying to make strategies that don't require importing selections to make it easier John short odd lay strategy is a cracker and he gave me some good tips with the bot when getting started. Running a modified pace letter lay which is good on the few qualifiers i get have to manualy put those into the bot. And run johns slow pace dob but that hasnt been doing that great but still sticking with it for now.
My main thing thats helped me was I found a way to forward test using the software. The way I do it is to forward test for 4 months so when making a new strategy the first filter to add is Specific Date then put a date from before the records start so greater then 18 months then finish 4 months before todays date. Then create you strategy run the result and do even more filtering if needed. Then once your happy save the current then click save new to make another copy then go to the new copy and change the specific date and change that from the end date of the original filter(so 4 months ago) to today's date. Then hit run which would give you the results of the 4 months you hadn't filtered.
Hope that made sense using this I have found alot of filters that looked good weren't actually that good forward testing so straight away you know and don't have to wait 4 months
I agree regarding the potential backfitting when specific courses are removed when there might not be any logic behind their poor results on a filter.
There may be times when logic could be applied, say when you're looking to lay short price horses in running when there's a long uphill run in, a poor TV camera angle etc. I remember some discussion a while ago regarding a strategy on the software for Chester run-ins...
That got me thinking whether there's a resource anywhere that captures this type of info across the different racecourses. Anyone know of any sites that might help? I'd be happy to collate something if there are a few sources?
Cheers
Kevin -
@robert-h said in [***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***]
My main thing thats helped me was I found a way to forward test using the software. The way I do it is to forward test for 4 months so when making a new strategy the first filter to add is Specific Date then put a date from before the records start so greater then 18 months then finish 4 months before todays date. Then create you strategy run the result and do even more filtering if needed. Then once your happy save the current then click save new to make another copy then go to the new copy and change the specific date and change that from the end date of the original filter(so 4 months ago) to today's date. Then hit run which would give you the results of the 4 months you hadn't filtered.
Hope that made sense using this I have found alot of filters that looked good weren't actually that good forward testing so straight away you know and don't have to wait 4 months
Sorry, I'm a bit confused by this. Are you saying you forward test 4 months on the software? Or you actually forward test and compare?
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@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
By the way, if you get rid of Chase and NHF in Jon Batten's pace lays, it is a cracking low liability laying system for people. Might want to start there. Lose the going filter and add in a Race type filter of Hurdle and Turf (AW provides a lesser ROI than the other two so up to you if you want to include it). Change the There is NOTHING that can change on the day. As long as the selections you load in hit 2.0-3.0 between 1 minute out and the race start time they will place. Seeing as people are having problems getting stuff to match, this strategy has the least variables that can change on the day. Profits are lower in the winter months.
This is similar to what I've been doing. I picked a couple of lay strategies that seemed to be doing well, such as Martin's Pace Lays, cleared all the filters except for whatever the main strategy is. Then reviewed entry price, handicap, class, race type and favourite before making any changes to see if there was anything that stood out. Each time I made a change I'll check I haven't thrown anything off. Finally, go through all the courses and see which ones are causing me grief.
I don't really look at going or stuff like that. Things that might change day to day.
Finally, if you're using a bot it's best to use OFFICIAL race start as that is what your bot will be working to.
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@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
This is a genuine question for everyone who's got the horse trading software? Is anyone out there making actual money on it? I've been testing for nearly four months now using about four or five strategies and hasn't been any that have been consistently profitable and most would have lost quite a bit of money (don’t worry I’m on low stakes). I see there is a lot of information in the chat about strategies that people have been tweaking and showing the backtesting which is great, but are the actually working in a live testing environment? I understand with any new strategy you need to test it for three to four months I totally get that, but sooner or later the software has to show some form of value would you not disagree? And if none of the strategies are profitable then where is the value? Even the pace lays which had a good month last month are having an absolutely dreadful month this month.
So I'm interested to see if anyone is actually making money and on what strategy they are because maybe I'm just looking at the wrong strategies? Another example will be this recent back the favourite on Saturdays, Mondays and Tuesdays, now granted I've only been testing it for two weeks now but it's on like minus 24 points which is some drawdown.
I hope this isn't perceived as negative because it's not meant to be I'm just genuinely interested if anyone is making money in a live environment and it doesn't matter even if their one pound stakes or 50p stakes have they got any strategies that are making some form of profit?
For me I found at the start most the strategies didn't work when forward testing them. I was using strats created by users on here but I now think that most of them were over over filtered mostly with courses being back fitted and some other filter being back fitted. I find alot of the improved ones of the originals posted here just been back fitted with results since the original has been made so of course going to look impressive.
I now try to filter less and only filters that make sense why its happening not just chance. I still might filter courses but have to be losings lots there get removed (ie certain course layouts). I use BF bot manager so now trying to make strategies that don't require importing selections to make it easier John short odd lay strategy is a cracker and he gave me some good tips with the bot when getting started. Running a modified pace letter lay which is good on the few qualifiers i get have to manualy put those into the bot. And run johns slow pace dob but that hasnt been doing that great but still sticking with it for now.
My main thing thats helped me was I found a way to forward test using the software. The way I do it is to forward test for 4 months so when making a new strategy the first filter to add is Specific Date then put a date from before the records start so greater then 18 months then finish 4 months before todays date. Then create you strategy run the result and do even more filtering if needed. Then once your happy save the current then click save new to make another copy then go to the new copy and change the specific date and change that from the end date of the original filter(so 4 months ago) to today's date. Then hit run which would give you the results of the 4 months you hadn't filtered.
Hope that made sense using this I have found alot of filters that looked good weren't actually that good forward testing so straight away you know and don't have to wait 4 months
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By the way, if you get rid of Chase and NHF in Jon Batten's pace lays, it is a cracking low liability laying system for people. Might want to start there. Lose the going filter and add in a Race type filter of Hurdle and Turf (AW provides a lesser ROI than the other two so up to you if you want to include it). Change the There is NOTHING that can change on the day. As long as the selections you load in hit 2.0-3.0 between 1 minute out and the race start time they will place. Seeing as people are having problems getting stuff to match, this strategy has the least variables that can change on the day. Profits are lower in the winter months.
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@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@ian-parry said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The coding of an automated stake management and strategy monitoring system sounds interesting as yeah im spending a great deal of time setting up bots and recording results. What does that involve? is it something that your automation provides?
I'm a software developer by trade so I've programmed my bots from scratch. But I believe I remember @John-Folan mentioning once that bfbotmanager provides this feature.
ah im on betangel and i dont think it offers that function sadly
Bet Angel is great for scalping and inrunning, but leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to this type of trading. The conditions just aren't there.
BFbotmanager has it's shortcomings (speed being the main one, but if you aren't trying to scalp or banging bets inplay(dobs are fine as the lay is placed as soon as the back bet is so you are well queued)). Strategy bank management is a big plus as is the sheer number of conditions for both racing and football (I think tennis too but I haven't looked). Football it has live scores and a basic inplay stat system as well as filtering by leagues, goals scored/conceded. You can plug in Predictology and the inplay scanner itself if you have them and trade off those. For the type of trading generally done by people on here, both horse and football, it is probably the most effective. When I say speed as well. It does refresh every 300ms, so it's not a snail.
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@ian-parry said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The coding of an automated stake management and strategy monitoring system sounds interesting as yeah im spending a great deal of time setting up bots and recording results. What does that involve? is it something that your automation provides?
I'm a software developer by trade so I've programmed my bots from scratch. But I believe I remember @John-Folan mentioning once that bfbotmanager provides this feature.
ah im on betangel and i dont think it offers that function sadly
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@ian-parry said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The coding of an automated stake management and strategy monitoring system sounds interesting as yeah im spending a great deal of time setting up bots and recording results. What does that involve? is it something that your automation provides?
I'm a software developer by trade so I've programmed my bots from scratch. But I believe I remember @John-Folan mentioning once that bfbotmanager provides this feature.
It does indeed.
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The coding of an automated stake management and strategy monitoring system sounds interesting as yeah im spending a great deal of time setting up bots and recording results. What does that involve? is it something that your automation provides?
I'm a software developer by trade so I've programmed my bots from scratch. But I believe I remember @John-Folan mentioning once that bfbotmanager provides this feature.
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@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Also I suggest everyone looks at their strategies. If you have variables on the day that can change like runner numbers. Especially runner numbers in fact. Set up a separate version of the strategy (I call mine qualifiers) with runner numbers or going or whatever can change deleted and use that one to get your selections from. Then filter runner numbers etc in your bot software.
Non runners and going can change massively on any given day. This meant I was getting loads of different results. This is a simple workaround.
i know it sound simple but that actually sounds complex and i dont have the time as i work. I maybe will have to look at it at the weekend but i wouldnt know where to start.
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@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Ouch. Something is massively wrong there then. Is your bot sometimes doing more than one favourite in a race if there is a las second steam or drift? I had an issue with that.
I restricted the strategy to 1 selection per race(so it only placed a back bet on one favourite regardless of whether it steamed or drifted after).
I then as well as 10’seconds out added the race status had to be at the post or going behind. So you got the race favourite more often than not. It still drifts to second favourite sometimes but some win and some lose so it balances out and I don’t stress about it too much.
I’ve asked Adam to add a price ranking at time of entry filter as that will eliminate all of these problems on numerous strategies plus it will be easier for people to
match the software selections.No only fires on one selection which is the favourite in the race so for example in the 1418 at Newcastle it's the favourite 10 seconds before 1418. unfortunately with betAngel you can't do it to at post status, I can ask the forum if that’s possible. I can change it to 30 seconds after the race starts but if you get a race that starts on time then you might have an issue with your bet being matched. perhaps I need to then just ditch the strategy and focus on other ones.
Bet Angel I have found is useless for filtering. It’s got sub standard filters for this type of trading. The only thing it’s ok at is if you have specific selections that only need runner numbers or odds filters.
Great for scalping because of the speed though.
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Also I suggest everyone looks at their strategies. If you have variables on the day that can change like runner numbers. Especially runner numbers in fact. Set up a separate version of the strategy (I call mine qualifiers) with runner numbers or going or whatever can change deleted and use that one to get your selections from. Then filter runner numbers etc in your bot software.
Non runners and going can change massively on any given day. This meant I was getting loads of different results. This is a simple workaround.
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@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Ouch. Something is massively wrong there then. Is your bot sometimes doing more than one favourite in a race if there is a las second steam or drift? I had an issue with that.
I restricted the strategy to 1 selection per race(so it only placed a back bet on one favourite regardless of whether it steamed or drifted after).
I then as well as 10’seconds out added the race status had to be at the post or going behind. So you got the race favourite more often than not. It still drifts to second favourite sometimes but some win and some lose so it balances out and I don’t stress about it too much.
I’ve asked Adam to add a price ranking at time of entry filter as that will eliminate all of these problems on numerous strategies plus it will be easier for people to
match the software selections.No only fires on one selection which is the favourite in the race so for example in the 1418 at Newcastle it's the favourite 10 seconds before 1418. unfortunately with betAngel you can't do it to at post status, I can ask the forum if that’s possible. I can change it to 30 seconds after the race starts but if you get a race that starts on time then you might have an issue with your bet being matched. perhaps I need to then just ditch the strategy and focus on other ones.
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Ouch. Something is massively wrong there then. Is your bot sometimes doing more than one favourite in a race if there is a las second steam or drift? I had an issue with that.
I restricted the strategy to 1 selection per race(so it only placed a back bet on one favourite regardless of whether it steamed or drifted after).
I then as well as 10’seconds out added the race status had to be at the post or going behind. So you got the race favourite more often than not. It still drifts to second favourite sometimes but some win and some lose so it balances out and I don’t stress about it too much.
I’ve asked Adam to add a price ranking at time of entry filter as that will eliminate all of these problems on numerous strategies plus it will be easier for people to
match the software selections. -
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The backs have done ok tho
The backs have done ok tho - do you mean the back the fav on sat, mon, tues?
Yes. They are a few points up on my software from the last couple of weeks.
im -24 from 5th nov, this is what i mean the download isnt enough, there needs to be an explantion of how to place the trades as that could be the issue why my results are so different to the software
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@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The backs have done ok tho
The backs have done ok tho - do you mean the back the fav on sat, mon, tues?
Yes. They are a few points up on my software from the last couple of weeks.
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@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
The backs have done ok tho
The backs have done ok tho - do you mean the back the fav on sat, mon, tues?
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@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
liability rather than stake
Yeah I had a few issues with the short odds where the bot kept firing when the odds were so low but that seems to have been solved. I’m not anywhere near that points tally but its getting better in testing. Not seen the martin beaten favourites strategy is that like the martin lay shorts odds strategy?
Yeah I think the issue with the pace backs is the massive variation that's why I kinda ditched it too, it sounded like your October was very much a rollercoaster. I suppose it's OK when you're testing on small stakes but I can imagine that if you up the stakes on that you could have a few hairy days.
Yeah that's my biggest problem too is that the results that come from the software are very different from my own and I don't know whether that's an issue with my bots or possibly I'm not following the rules correctly? that's why would be good if perhaps not only is there a filter for the strategy but maybe some information about how it should be traded?
For example I think I'm doing the back the favourites on Saturday, Monday and Tuesday incorrectly as I started placing a back on the selection that was shown on the daily selections, and then in conversation with yourself you said that it needed to be the race selection. So essentially whoever is the favourite in the race - but to be honest both variations have been really quite poor and when I look at the software it massively different to the totals that I have.
Good call on the liability rather than stake for higher odds, how do you tend to do that? Like a flat liability to a % if your bank per trade?Yes on the liability.
You can get damn close with software. The problem with favourites is they still seem to change even a few seconds out. I’ve asked Adam for a filter to help with this in the software. The backs have done ok tho? I added a filter in Bfbot to place bets when going behind or at the post as well as 10 seconds out. That’s got me closer.
Bfbotmanager gets you closer than bet Angel. Much better conditions.
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@ian-parry said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
coding an automated stake management and strategy monitoring system
The coding of an automated stake management and strategy monitoring system sounds interesting as yeah im spending a great deal of time setting up bots and recording results. What does that involve? is it something that your automation provides?
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@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
liability rather than stake
Yeah I had a few issues with the short odds where the bot kept firing when the odds were so low but that seems to have been solved. I’m not anywhere near that points tally but its getting better in testing. Not seen the martin beaten favourites strategy is that like the martin lay shorts odds strategy?
Yeah I think the issue with the pace backs is the massive variation that's why I kinda ditched it too, it sounded like your October was very much a rollercoaster. I suppose it's OK when you're testing on small stakes but I can imagine that if you up the stakes on that you could have a few hairy days.
Yeah that's my biggest problem too is that the results that come from the software are very different from my own and I don't know whether that's an issue with my bots or possibly I'm not following the rules correctly? that's why would be good if perhaps not only is there a filter for the strategy but maybe some information about how it should be traded?
For example I think I'm doing the back the favourites on Saturday, Monday and Tuesday incorrectly as I started placing a back on the selection that was shown on the daily selections, and then in conversation with yourself you said that it needed to be the race selection. So essentially whoever is the favourite in the race - but to be honest both variations have been really quite poor and when I look at the software it massively different to the totals that I have.
Good call on the liability rather than stake for higher odds, how do you tend to do that? Like a flat liability to a % if your bank per trade?
