Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@Adam said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
We are really close to releasing the "favourite at entry time" feature now (as in, it is done and we're testing it)
Some on here will be offering to have your babies when that happens
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
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@dave-tancock Bet Angel thread has a short odds lays bot...
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4020/bet-angel-automation-thread?_=1686735990740 -
@Joseph-Henderson I suppose then change it to eg 10 seconds before actual start time - the software will then give you a good approximation of BSP and will still allow you to filter by odds
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@David-Milligan when you change the price to BSP the option to alter the odds range disappears?
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@Joseph-Henderson I think probably setting up the bot to fire as close to the off as possible and set the software to measure results based on BSP
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Yes, totally agree with you (guess i misunderstood your post). Thats why i suggested not adding it to presets. Its a very bad strat for beginners.
But often it seems people dont get the implications of using favourite and i would say a lot of people dont understand the importance of being able to execute as neaqr perfectly to what the backtester does. -
@David-Milligan What’s the best way of setting up the software so that it’s essentially placing bets at BSP but within a certain odds range?
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@Joseph-Henderson you can't tell 10 mins before the race who is going to be third favourite based on BSP, nor can the bot. However, the software results will show you the outcome if you had bet on the BSP third favourite ten mins out.
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@Jonathan-Jones Yes, I get that and I'm not questioning, what I am trying to demonstrate, mainly because of the previous conversation with @Martin about putting the selections in the daily email, is that there is quite a significant difference between the selections and actuals, particularly in terms of ROI%
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@Jonathan-Jones Just so it’s clear in my own head, why does changing the time to place bet from say 10 mins before race off to 10 seconds changes the results if it’s based on BSP anyway?
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Yes, your Bot will. but the software wont. The software will 'see into the future' and bet on the horse that eventually is 3rd at BSP (when you run backtests). You will get a mismatch between bets placed live by your bot and what the software tells you bet on if you run the backtest the next day. When you run a backtest the software isnt telling you what you would of bet on at 10 seconds out. It doesnt matter what time window you put in, its always telling you what horse you would of bet on at BSP but it will use the odds that horse was at 10 seconds out.
Depending on the timeframe you specify and the favourite this can make a massive difference. 1st Fav 5 seconds after official start - not too much difference, 3rd fav 10 mins out (like this strat was originally) - not a hope in hell.
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@Jonathan-Jones So if you are using a bot to place the bets for this strategy, it will bet on the 3rd Favourite at the time of placing the bet, in this case 10 seconds before the start time. Which is what I looked at.
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@Greg-Mitchell said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
I looked at the 3rd Fav based on Entry Price 10 seconds before the start time
Not sure what you mean by that. Whatever you put for the entry time the software will only bet on the one that eventually ends up as 3rd at BSP. You cant really use the software to do this sort of analysis since it wont tell you what horse was actually 3rd at 10 seconds out. Thats the problem with these favourite conditions. There simply is no way to actually reconcile what happened in realilty in that race with what the software tells you.
Actually, you could do something in the software but its a pain. You would have to run 2 versions and cross match the results.
The first would be to bet on all horses (or maybe just all the ones in the fave list) at 10 seconds out then manually use the entry price to determine the correct order at the time.
Then cross match that to another run with 3rd fav only @ BSP (this would execute 100% as per the software).If the horse in 3rd place on the first run matches the one that the software bets on in the second run then its all great. If its not then your profit would be the sum of the bets on the horse in 3rd place on the first run. Be interesting to see how they match. Might do that myself but got a busy babysitting weekend so might get on to it tomorrow afternoon.
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@Jonathan-Jones @Martin
Interesting one that, I just extracted the data for the Lay the 3rd Fav strategy and included the 1st, 2nd and 4th Favs also. As the strategy is using BSP to decide the 3rd Fav, I looked at the 3rd Fav based on Entry Price 10 seconds before the start time and also the ones that were 3rd Fav at 10 seconds AND at BSP.
These are the results:
The middle one is the one that the software is showing give or take a little.
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No, sorry. I use fairbot currently
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@Jonathan-Jones thanks. That was my gut feeling. Do you know if anyone has created any bots for betangel for the short odds lays?
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The favourite ones are a bit of a pain to execute. I have a feeling (based on nothing more than my subjective take on watching the prices and my own strats) that horses in 3rd place flip all the time as these are the ones most heavily and actively traded (particularly in the last min). Even betting 10 seconds out my guess is you will get it wrong 20% to 30% ish of the time. Would avoid strats looking at third fav in particular with real money though would be interested in long term simulated on it though. Either way you cant look at the backtest results on it with even the remotest confidence because 20 to 30% of the time you wont be betting on the correct horse.
A few peoplehave modified strats with favourite and are betting at BSP or a couple of seconds the other side of the official start time to narrow the window. You could give that a go in the backtest to see if its still profitable.
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Short odds lays out of those two
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im considering adding another strategy to my collection (currently lay beaten fave, pace lays, c+d winner and back the pace horse) that I can automate using betfair. I have seen short odds lays and back favourite at the off V2 in the presets. just wondering if anyone has a preference on these two and whether there are any betangel bots pre-made for these.
