Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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Anyone else not get matched on 1745 Chumbaa ?
My Betfait bot missed it but BA on betdaq managed at 5.46.
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@Greg-Mitchell yes...great. Let us know how it goes. Thanks!!
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@Correa I have mine set at 2 seconds.
Which changes are you talking about? the odds difference between 2nd and 3rd Fav? Thats just my own setting that I have put in place today, to see how it works.
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@Greg-Mitchell said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
The 3 Bets that don't match (different horses were bet on) is because if you look at SP's of the horses in those races, they were very close, so the favourite position based on SP changed as soon as the race started, the software would show the one that was actually 3rd Favourite at SP. BFBM bet on the 3rd Fav at the time of bet. Luckily worked in our favour yesterday, but won't always be the case.
Thanks, @Greg-Mitchell. Under "Market Conditions", it's set to bet 10 seconds before going in-play. Should I adjust this to about 2 or 1 second before the race starts to get as close to the favourite at SP as possible? You're right; it worked in our favour yesterday, but last week was a disaster for me.
The 19:30 one (Windsor - Trojan Truth) had an entry price of 7 and BSP at 7.82, so it was probably over 7 when my bot attempted to place a bet. However, for the other two, I'm unsure what went wrong.
Were these changes for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th that you mentioned already in effect yesterday?
Thanks for your help!!
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@Greg-Mitchell I had 10 placed bets resulting in 10 winners on lay the 3rd fav yesterday.
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@Joseph-Henderson Odds of 2 to 7
I have set BFBM up with "Market" Conditions that say that the 2nd Fav must be more than 0.5 odds less than the 3rd Fav and the 4th Fav must be more than 0.5 odds greater. That way I'm hoping it will start picking up only the clear 3rd Favs
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@Greg-Mitchell I had 8 winning trades from 11 yesterday on my bot. Do you mind explaining what the odds range does that you’ve added?
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@Correa The 3 Bets that don't match (different horses were bet on) is because if you look at SP's of the horses in those races, they were very close, so the favourite position based on SP changed as soon as the race started, the software would show the one that was actually 3rd Favourite at SP. BFBM bet on the 3rd Fav at the time of bet. Luckily worked in our favour yesterday, but won't always be the case.
The 3 that the Bot missed, I can only comment on the 15:45 at Windsor, my BOT picked that one up, but if you look at the odds difference between the 2nd and 3rd Fav it was very close, so it may not have been 3rd Fav when your bot tried to bet on it.
This is the same issue with the one at Roscommon, the odds between 2nd and 3rd Fav were very close.
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About the Lay 3rd Fav as well, if someone can help figure this out. I'm also finding it tough to cross-check and confused because the bot isn't placing bets that show in the backtesting. Plus, some results from the backtesting aren't in the list, even though the bot placed them.
For example, yesterday I got 7 out of 7 on the 'lay the 3rd favourite'. Here's the issue:
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3 bets in the backtesting don't match what my bot placed. However, these bets were on the tip list. In fact, multiple selections were downloaded at different times from the link. I do understand this part, but the backtesting isn't updating the correct third, which makes it hard for me to cross-check the results.
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My bot missed 3 bets that are in the backtesting. According to Timeform, these were 3rd favourites with odds below 7, so I don't understand why it didn't do it.
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There's 1 bet the bot placed that doesn't appear in the backtesting, specifically the "18:45 Roscommon 4th Sep\1m3f Mdn\Yukon River", but it was in the tip list.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kQTR9FwoGBWb6-_pV0Ec0xMEXvK55YxLUC73tOM_LPA/edit?usp=sharing
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@Joseph-Henderson Yes cross checking is difficult, yesterday alone the software is showing 7 winning trades from 9 bets, whereas BFBM recorded 9 from 9. I have just amended the bot for Option 2 to include a minimum odds difference between 2nd and 3rd Fav, and 3rd and 4th Fav, which should help.
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@Greg-Mitchell Interesting. I find that using option 2 it’s not possible to cross check with the software accurately because of the favourite rule (I.E. the software records bets on horses that don’t end up going off third favourite). But option 2 seems to be working well so I’m just going with it for now.
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@Joseph-Henderson I have just let it update automatically, so have both versions of the filter running and two different bots in BFBM, and let BFBM and the URL do its job in uploading them automatically. Hence my question to Adam, because looking at the Tips uploaded to BFBM, for example the 13:35 at Goodwood today:
Option 1 has uploaded 4 different selections at 17:42, 18:42, 23:42 and 02:42 (one at each time).
Option 2 has uploaded 14 selections (i.e. all the horses aged 9 or younger), which happens to be every horse in the race on this occasion.
So at it stands the Option 1 Bot will only fire on one of those 4 selections if it is 3rd Fav at the time of placing the bet (5 secs), whilst Option 2 will place a bet on the 3rd favourite regardless.
Clearly the backtesting results are as per Option 2, however as I said Option 1 is proving more successful, hence the discussions.
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@Greg-Mitchell I use option 2, and to be fair it seems to have generally outperformed the software results for the past 2.5 months I’ve been using it. How have you analysed option 1? Have you downloaded the selections at a specific time each day then checking how they performed
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Questions about Lay 3rd Fav, for those of you using it. How are you all getting your selections?
Do you use the strategy as it is downloaded from above, which contains the selection criteria of "3rd Favourite"?
OR
Have you removed that criteria so you get a lot of selections in each race and then just bet on the 3rd Fav at the time of placing the bet?
Then questions for @Adam, if we use the first option and upload the selections to BFBM via URL then the selection has to be 3rd Favourite at the time of upload and also 3rd favourite at the time of bet, so how often is the price updated in the software? For example a horse (A) could be 3rd Fav the night before and get picked up by the software and the URL upload, but in the morning, a different horse (B) is 3rd Fav, and then an hour before the race another different horse (C) could be 3rd Fav. If I have my BFBM set to autoload every hour, which horse is my selection, A, B or C? Because at some point all three will have been uploaded.
The reason I ask, is that I noticed quite a difference in strategy performance between the two options. In the last 3 days alone, the first option is 3 pts up, whilst the 2nd option is 11 pts down.
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@Martin Glad I looked at bank roll management prior to Sept - down around 36pts to £1 stakes in 4 days, but thankfully only a bank roll reduction of around 4.5%, which is far easier mentally to handle! Out of interest, would you be able to update the screenshot above of your bots so we can compare performance?
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You will get differences in the trades you actually take and the ones the software tells you it took doing this because of the difference in how they both handle LTP. BFBM and other trading software will as you point out start looking at 10 seconds for example. For them the LTP is the last price that was traded whenever that happened. On a low liquidity race and middle order horse that could of been several seconds before. This software however uses it as a trigger. So, that last traded price would have to occur within that second for it to qualify. I came unstuck with this when i set a strategy that uses the favourite condition to be 1 second before the start (to minimise the chance of the favourite changing). I had lots more bets taken in reality that the software told me i had (and still had favourites swapping places anyway).
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@David-Polkey Think i may have an answer.
The Bots are starting to bet at 10 seconds. I think they keep looking to see if conditions are met until the off. Therefore as odds change, so do qualifiers.
The software is using the 10 second time.
I have put a start betting at 10 seconds and stop at 9 seconds to see. (On the appropriate strategies). Obviously not on Dobbing etc but LBF and Lay 3rd.
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@Joseph-Henderson ouch!
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@Joseph-Henderson said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@John-Folan Would that rule of thumb apply to all strategies or just laying? For example for a DOB strategy would you still recommend 3 times max drawdown?
Yep. Better safe than sorry
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@John-Folan Would that rule of thumb apply to all strategies or just laying? For example for a DOB strategy would you still recommend 3 times max drawdown?
