Horse Racing Strategies Megathread

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@John-Folan I have noted this too. I'm currently on the 5th losing day of 'lay 3rd fav' via the bot and am keen to download the individual results to see if this run is an anomaly or to be expected. Having trouble viewing the results though. they just don't show up for any of the strategies. Am I missing something?

Martin

@Tony-Hastie yeah problem for me was double losers on the irish courses, so your way makes sense!

Tony Hastie

@Martin I thought they were similar so removed all the irish courses from the B2L DOBs(was getting double ups). Im £1 trading both and yeah, Irish DOBs are going good. Very lucky to get any horses in the odds parameters(considering the many more courses available for selection) for the B2L and its currently running at scratch. Still back tests well with the irish courses removed...

Martin

@John-Folan I would use 250pts for set and forget, had a great month on the ones I shared above anyway.

On another note, Irish Dobs and Back to Lay Dobs are very similar as Irish Dobs was born out of Back to Lay Dobs, I'm only trading Irish Dobs at the moment for that reason as it seems to be better. Will keep an eye on the other one.

John Folan

@Martin said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:

@Matthew-Sheehan what do you mean by 3m? How are you destroying banks, what staking are you using?

I think he means three months. We really need this drawdown thing sorting as it’s currently based on longest losing run and not highest point to next lowest point. I download the individual results to work mine out. I know it’s on Adams list to do. That way people can get the right sized banks for each strategy(100 points, 150 points, 200 points etc)

Martin

@Matthew-Sheehan what do you mean by 3m? How are you destroying banks, what staking are you using?

Matthew Sheehan

How do you guys keep going? Every time I test strategies for 3m of success then go live, my luck turns and my bank gets destroyed. I’ve had the same thing twice and had my bank smashed twice. Do I go for a third?

John Folan

@David-Polkey said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:

@John-Folan

Cheers John - I'll keep an eye out for that

Actually looking at it I don't think I will. It places the lay bets as soon as the race goes into play. This is better than placing before as when betfair cocks up the first thing it does is cancel all unmatched bets before inplay. This way they are placed once the race is started. I knew there was a reason I had it set up like that

David Polkey

@John-Folan

Cheers John - I'll keep an eye out for that

John Folan

@David-Polkey said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:

@John-Folan

Hi John - I downloaded the BOT from here so its the one on this page.

Thanks. I might tweak the bot so it places the lay at exactly the same time. I’ll post here as I sort it

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@Joseph-Henderson

I spoke too soon. been away since Friday. Just got in. Seems i have a missed trade on LBF on the 12th. First one in weeks though.

I use LBF which is pretty much the new one posted here and 2 others i cant really share because they use rank criteria. I have had to write some software to sit between here and BFBM to re-rank the selections in realtime because of non-runners. Again i would expect maybe one incorrect bet every week to ten days now. Just going off the BFBM url here i was getting one or two most days because of non-runners.

David Polkey

@Martin

Thanks Martin

Martin

@David-Polkey you can always check the results and the odds it came into on timeform for free if you are worried that the bot isn't working: https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/result/kilbeggan/2023-08-12/1955/211/7

David Polkey

@Martin

Thanks for that - I guess thats just a rookie mistake on my part then. Thanks for clarifying.

David Polkey

@John-Folan

Hi John - I downloaded the BOT from here so its the one on this page.

Martin

@David-Polkey lapsed just means the price didn't hit the target price so bet was not matched and event closed. Checked the horses and none of them dobbed except the ones you made a profit on. So to clarify these bets were not matched because the odds did not go low enough, nothing to do with the bot not placing the lay.

John Folan

@David-Polkey said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:

@Martin

Hi Martin

Using BFBM - stopped using it on Sunday after this run of lapsed lays.

There is something wrong there. The lay bets should be placed as soon as your back bet is matched. Can you post the bfbm file you are using?

David Polkey

@Martin Irish DOBS Screenshot.png

Hi Martin

Using BFBM - stopped using it on Sunday after this run of lapsed lays.

Joseph Henderson

@Jonathan-Jones this is probably a very sensible approach to take. Out of interest, are you able to share which strategies you are currently using that mirror with the software well?

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@Joseph-Henderson its good to check these things. I think (from other conversations and posts) that a lot of people dont do this. I do every day and have since I started. The way I see it if you cant replicate the trades the backtest is taking then your use of the backtest is pointless, you may as well be flipping a coin.

This is why I no longer even bother looking at anything with the favourite condition, anything that has any trade out element or anything that has any inrunning element. Now I just use strategies that are simple back or lay it's very, very rare that I get any difference between the backtest and real trades.

Obviously when the favourite thing is fixed i have a few things i am desperate to revisit as i believe they are profitable but if you cant replicate it then your not really using this software properly.