Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@Joseph-Henderson said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@John-Folan I had exported the individual results for a few different periods and calculated max drawdown using your spreadsheet/formula so should be accurate, but yes it sounds like I need to adjust bankroll management.
Good rule of thumb is bank size at least 3 times the max drawdown so far.
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@John-Folan I had exported the individual results for a few different periods and calculated max drawdown using your spreadsheet/formula so should be accurate, but yes it sounds like I need to adjust bankroll management.
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@Joseph-Henderson said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@John-Folan I am wondering if my approach of calculating max drawdown from back testing and then multiplying by 2 is too aggressive on lay strategies? Staking 1.25% of bankroll on LTBF which is probably too high..
Those drawdown figures are based on the longest losing run and not highest peak to next low. You need a 200 point bank at least
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Mine has had a bad couple of weeks but its still up on the month. Looking at its monthly average though it was obviously well above expectations earlier on and its gone back to the average now.
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@John-Folan I am wondering if my approach of calculating max drawdown from back testing and then multiplying by 2 is too aggressive on lay strategies? Staking 1.25% of bankroll on LTBF which is probably too high..
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Had an absolute kicking on the LTBF’s I do this month. Completely agree with @Martin saying a 200-250 point bank on lay strategies is sensible.
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@dave-tancock as close to off as possible so 5 seconds before I do
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@Martin thanks Martin. I’ll have a look at this one. Can you clarify when it should place the trade as the YouTube video says 10 mins before the race, should I change this?
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LBF gets one or 2 of these a month. Always keeps you on your toes. My slightly modified version hit the same loser as you but its still up on the month
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@dave-tancock here is a lay up to 10.0 one it will need testing before putting any serious money on ! rules_export (19).json
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@dave-tancock The Strategy is set to place the bets 5 seconds before the official start time, so the 10 mins on the Bot is wrong, it makes quite a difference in the results.
To demonstrate I ran the software at 10 mins and at 5 seconds for August:
This is 10 mins:
And this is 5 Secs:
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@dave-tancock the daily email are the selections when the strategy is run usually early morning, best to run the results yourself nearer the off (tbh we are thinking of dropping the daily email as the horses change throughout the day).
I will take a look at the odds for lay beaten fav if you like, see if we can reduce the risk
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@Martin I appreciate the offer. Probably a silly question, but when you say less liability would the just mean that it’s smaller stakes? Ie if the trade is successful the win would be smaller 50p instead of £1, or do you mean reducing the odds to say 8 instead of 15?
Also hopefully I’ll get the daily email tomorrow, are the horses in that all that the software recommends or do you filter it further? -
@dave-tancock do you want me to have a go at creating one with less liability?
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@Joseph-Henderson at least the first half was good, the whole month has been crap for me so far. After todays results I think I’m -£35 approx
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@dave-tancock It's been a month of two halves for my Lay Beaten Fav bot - +13.84 pts between 1st-17th August, then -15.71 pts between 18th and yesterday (not looked at today's yet).
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@Martin the bot is set to 10 mins before official start time which as far as I know is correct. Hopefully I’ll get the daily emails tomorrow and will just stick with any on that and see if it improves
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@dave-tancock you entering at the right time using a bot? that's the only thing I could suggest if you are not regarding doing anything wrong.
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@Martin ok thanks. I have emailed a screenshot of the horses I’ve traded this month for this strategy, just in case you could see something I’ve missed. Or if it’s drastically different to the horses you’ve traded then I know I’ve defended done something wrong. Hope that’s ok.
