Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@Wayne-Thomas said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
They both involve class filtering and I have been wondering how the class ratings are generated for Irish racing? Irish races don't have a class system like the UK, so I was wondering how the software produces the class rating.
We have a function that basically calculates what the class would have been if it was a GB race, based on (off the top of my head) race type, prize value, handicap value etc.
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@Philip-Brogan Not sure if betangel has this feature but in BFBM you can use virtual banks to isolate strategies or groups of strategies and set different staking plans for each. Finding it very useful.
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@Joseph-Henderson Thanks Joseph, Is BFBM better than Bet Angel ? Should I consider switching? I wish I knew how to code Python so I could write the bots my self and plug them into the Betfair API. I don't think automation is ever perfect and will always result in varience between the back testing and live trading. Is BFBM easier to use than Bet Angel ? Bet Angel seems a little clunky at times. The strategies that I have been using have had a rough month, just lucky I am using £1 stakes to test. There must be away to find the sweet spot between profit and varience. I wonder how many strategies to keep varience under control? 4 strategies is not enough to master varience. I heard Peter Web say he only had 1 losing week last year. I wonder how many and what type of strategies he uses to do this? I am testing 4 strategies to £1 stakes. All performing as badly as bankers circa 2008.
Assume a £1 stake and a £250 bank meaning 0.4% risk management. Horse races are over and settled in a matter of minutes meaning the capital can quickly be recycled into another market. There must be an optimum number of strategies that would enable you to double your bank every month (my ultimate goal). Betfair markets are mechanical and human nature is largely predictable. In theory you should only have to be slightly better than a mug punter to thrive on Betfair, but it often does not feel or play out this way. -
@Philip-Brogan My lay the third fav bot (which is based on the BSP third fav) continues to outperform the software and has done so for a few months. I am hoping that once the favourite rule and the min traded rules are added to the software that my BFBM bots will track the software results pretty closely.
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@Jonathan-Jones Thanks Jonathan. No person or bot can predict bsp in advance. No one knows when the race will start. For example 15.55 at Southwell rarely goes inplay at 15:55. The races usually start many minutes later that the offical start time. Even if you program Bet Angel to take sp you do not know the price you will be matched at. Strategies only work at certain odds limits. I think there is always a discrepancy between reality and back testing. I might just have to use back testing as a rough guide to the truth. Just hope that the discrepancy averages out over time.
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@Philip-Brogan I'm forward testing to min stakes if that's any help to you, 18pts up since July 29th
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Its because the favourite condition is BSP. You are betting on the horse thats 3rd favourite at whatever seconds from the start. You are finding out that even at that 5 or 10 seconds (or whatever it is on thaty strategy) 20% of the time thats NOT the horse that ends up as 3rd favourite. The backtest just finds the horse thats 3rd favourite at BSP and bets on that regardless of time.
Obviously its not possible for real bets to match the backtest using that criteria. Whats not known is if it makes even the slightest bit of difference to profitability in the long term. My guess is that it doesnt but since the point of this software is to bet on backtested, data driven strategies its probably not a great idea to use it because its not backtested, its guess work (aka punting).
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@Adam I mean that about 80% of the time I have the correct selection according to the back testing.
My acutal betfair P/L selections are different to the back testing about 20% of the time. The bot fires on a different horse that does not match the back testing. Many thanks for your help.
I uploaded the excel screenshot for an example. -
@Adam Both of my horse racing strategies have taken a nose dive in September too!
They both involve class filtering and I have been wondering how the class ratings are generated for Irish racing? Irish races don't have a class system like the UK, so I was wondering how the software produces the class rating.
Doing a quick google, there doesn't seem to be a definitive way to equate the two.
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@Philip-Brogan When you say "accurate 80% of the time", what do you mean?
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I have created a Lay the 3rd Favourite Bot in Bet Angel and it is only accurate about 80% of the time. Does anyone have a better Bot for Bet Angel?
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@Martin said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@dave-tancock lat beaten fav been the one letting me down this month, I will give it until end of Oct and review, don't really like the high lay odds
It’s been one of those months. I think everyone on these has been battered this month. I certainly have.
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@dave-tancock lat beaten fav been the one letting me down this month, I will give it until end of Oct and review, don't really like the high lay odds
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Not doing very well this month I’m about 50 odd points down and it’s not even half way through. Definitely the worst month so far for horse racing for me
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@Greg-Mitchell definitely prefer laying as it has a higher strike rate. Although it does hit harder when you get a few losers on the bounce even at low/min stakes.
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@Greg-Mitchell was wondering why I've always preferred laying and you have hit the nail on the head there!
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@Greg-Mitchell Indeed, I was trying to highlight just how profitable this strategy can be when backing on Saturdays.
Agree with you about backing horses. I’m still having a go with 'back the favourite'. The results from last month were quite poor. I’ve added a criteria on BFBM for September: the favourite must have a greater chance than the second favourite. I'm still determining which percentage gets the best results, but this change has already improved the strategy's performance but I’m not too excited about this one.
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@Correa Well, not wanting to sound facetious, but yes if a Lay strategy is showing a loss, then turning it to a back strategy must show a profit.
I don't do any Backing on the horses, it just feels like Gambling to me, I know they can be profitable, but the low strike rates and the "wanting something to win" just irritates me. There's only one winner per race, but lots of losers, just makes me feel much more comfortable.
