Horse Racing Strategies Megathread

Nick Allan

just out of interest any of these strategies have any kind of automation? I use BF Bot manager?

Ryan

@tomasz-lunarzewski Mine just get saved as a Textedit document and that works perfectly every time for me!

Adam

@tomasz-lunarzewski said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:

How do you save them text files? It was different on Windows. Can anyone help me please?

Your browser should have some variation of Right click > Save File As... ?

John Folan

@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:

@tomasz-lunarzewski said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:

I don't know how to import them strategies on Mac. How do you save them text files? It was different on Windows. Can anyone help me please?

@ryan might be able to he uses Mac

and if Ryan doesn't his ladyboy assistant will

Martin

@tomasz-lunarzewski said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:

I don't know how to import them strategies on Mac. How do you save them text files? It was different on Windows. Can anyone help me please?

@ryan might be able to he uses Mac

Tomasz Lunarzewski

I don't know how to import them strategies on Mac. How do you save them text files? It was different on Windows. Can anyone help me please?

Adam

@tomasz-lunarzewski I've added that explanation to the tooltip, it should be visible after the next update on Monday

Tomasz Lunarzewski

@john-folan is it a BSP favourite? I thought it's favourite based on the ratings and timeform. There is nothing explained when you press on it.

John Folan

@tomasz-lunarzewski I like this. You can’t know the bsp favourite 2 hours out but it still works when you do after the race start . I’m guessing it works laying the current favourite 2 hours out judging from your current results. Can’t wait for the entry point price ranking when it comes.

Tomasz Lunarzewski

Hi. I've got another strategy. I'm laying anything at odds from 1.01-5.0 here. got 120 results already and I'm £57 in profit.

0_1657280300892_rules_export.json

? Offline

@ian-parry great post Ian thanks for sharing!

John Folan

@ian-parry love this

Martin

@ian-parry wow that's some excellent analysis right there!

Ian Parry

Hi guys. Another one to share with you in case you weren't already overwhelmed with different strategies. I was playing around with lays based on pace letter. More specifically, horses that have an H pace letter in all of their last n races. I originally set up the strategy such that a horse had to have their last 4 races with an H and it showed a modest profit, but I got to asking myself how many races would be optimum for profit. So I ran the strategy for n = 2 through 15 where n = the number of consecutive previous races that the horse had a pace letter H. The results are in the attached chart. The X-axis shows the value of n. The blue line is the total profit and the orange line is the profit per race. The dotted orange line is the trend line for profit per race.

The chart shows a steady increase in the profit per race as the number of previous races with an H increases. It becomes profitable at about 5 and continues upwards. This increases my confidence that there is a real effect and that there is a profit to be made. It's very easy to get disappointed with a strategy that appears profitable on past results but ends up losing, hopefully testing it over a number of data points helps avoid that disappointment this time.

Of course as we increase the number of previous races with an H letter, we reduce the total number of horses that qualify. So naturally there is a peak in total profit which falls away as n increases even though the profit per trade increases. Here the profit is maximised at 7, however it can be seen that at this point the profit per race is above the trend line - so I believe it may have outperformed it's expected value at 7. As such my hypothesis is that the optimum number of races with consecutive H letters is around 8 or 9. I intend to do more analysis like this around my strategies in future rather than just randomly changing stuff until I see a profit. The risk of back fitting is just too high. I'd be interested in hearing peoples thoughts on this approach.

If anyone is interested here is the strategy:

0_1657259397965_HLay.json

Martin

@paul-foster excellent thanks for sharing!

Paul Foster

After my pre-off strategy, I've had some thoughts with in running.

This one looks at laying after 150secs any horse between 6 and 11. Again this is a base filter, so room to improve.

It shows a profit each month, except for last month, but it is a bit of a roller coaster when you look at the individual trades.

I guess that this will need a bot to follow properly

I'm also looking at the opposite to this, so backing very short odds towards the end of the race.

As ever, any comments greatly appreciated.

P

0_1657209207805_Lay In Play High Odds rules_export.json

James Menhenitt

@martin Yes, I should clarify, the main reason for the downswing was my errors!

Martin

@james-menhenitt looks promising, high variance but some really good profits last month during first month of forward testing by looks of it!

James Menhenitt

@martin Cheers, Martin.... not sure but started tracking the £1 results on May 28th. Was doing well until June 29th then hit a huge downswing haha!!

Martin

@james-menhenitt here is the updated start time, still looks a good strategy! what date did you create it? 0_1657178082052_rules_export.json