Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan good point.
I've just noticed this on the software under the favourite filter
Select an option to restrict your results to the fave, 2nd fave etc based on their BSP (Betfair Starting Price)
Does that mean the software is basing this off the favourite's BSP rather than actual price at the time?
Yes. Adam will be adding that in at some point. Don’t beat yourself up about it too much tho. Some will work in your favour and some not. It all balances out.
Yeah definitely, and I can't say enough good things about the software. I think it can be frustrating because I'm trying to learn horse racing and using a bot at the same time, and it's not always clear why something didn't happen the way you thought it would. But like you say, it all balances out in the end.
I have to admit, doing the horse racing is really interesting and... trying not to say it too loud, more fun than trading football
It is. Still learning all the time. Do you watch the races? Such a buzz
Very rarely. I work 9-5.30 so miss most of them. When I'm WFH I might do. I might do a few bets at Cheltenham which can get a bit tense, don't think I could handle that every day though!
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I'm with you on this @John-Folan Initially I just got the live feed up to see how far to the start I could push the pre-race trades. After a while I occasionally took the races in play to see if I could boost profits (free bet) and wow, you are right, some of the drama/excitement you get from these races....a lot more entertaining than I thought!
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan good point.
I've just noticed this on the software under the favourite filter
Select an option to restrict your results to the fave, 2nd fave etc based on their BSP (Betfair Starting Price)
Does that mean the software is basing this off the favourite's BSP rather than actual price at the time?
Yes. Adam will be adding that in at some point. Don’t beat yourself up about it too much tho. Some will work in your favour and some not. It all balances out.
Yeah definitely, and I can't say enough good things about the software. I think it can be frustrating because I'm trying to learn horse racing and using a bot at the same time, and it's not always clear why something didn't happen the way you thought it would. But like you say, it all balances out in the end.
I have to admit, doing the horse racing is really interesting and... trying not to say it too loud, more fun than trading football
It is. Still learning all the time. Do you watch the races? Such a buzz
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@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan good point.
I've just noticed this on the software under the favourite filter
Select an option to restrict your results to the fave, 2nd fave etc based on their BSP (Betfair Starting Price)
Does that mean the software is basing this off the favourite's BSP rather than actual price at the time?
Yes. Adam will be adding that in at some point. Don’t beat yourself up about it too much tho. Some will work in your favour and some not. It all balances out.
Yeah definitely, and I can't say enough good things about the software. I think it can be frustrating because I'm trying to learn horse racing and using a bot at the same time, and it's not always clear why something didn't happen the way you thought it would. But like you say, it all balances out in the end.
I have to admit, doing the horse racing is really interesting and... trying not to say it too loud, more fun than trading football
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@jonathan-busch said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Interesting...
So to clarify: if we apply this table to Wayne's Pace Letter Backs for example - which from my records (of 1200 trades) has average odds of 20 and a 15% strike rate
The implied probability of winning is 1/20 = 5%
So if the strike rate (15%) is above 5%, this is long term profitable???
Basically yes but if you were only getting average odds of 18 (bot problems or whatever) and were missing occasional trades for whatever reason so only getting a strike rate of 17%(just picking a number for an example). You are still way profitable.
It’s simplistic but should provide comfort a strategy is still profitable even if your results don’t exactly match. For whatever reason.
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Interesting...
So to clarify: if we apply this table to Wayne's Pace Letter Backs for example - which from my records (of 1200 trades) has average odds of 20 and a 15% strike rate
The implied probability of winning is 1/20 = 5%
So if the strike rate (15%) is above 5%, this is long term profitable???
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The software is a very very good guide to how your strategy will perform. Don’t get too beaten up trying to get the exact same results as the software. It’s never going to happen just purely because of how horse markets work, the pure speed that prices move and the limitations of bot software(every single one has something it can’t do). What you need to be looking for is, are you operating within an acceptable margin of error. So if the software says you need a minimum of a 90% strike rate for it to work as a you are going to come unstuck. You need to work out where the tipping point is before it’s a problem. So if the software says in ideal conditions you will get a strike rate of 90% but because of the odds range you actually only need 75% or more then as long as you are operating above 75% then crack on. Use the probability table attached to this post. Just reverse it for lay strategies.
Just take your average odds for each strategy and apply it to this table. Beat it and you are laughing. This table is one of the first things Martin ever sent me when I first started trading. It still gets used regularly.
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan good point.
I've just noticed this on the software under the favourite filter
Select an option to restrict your results to the fave, 2nd fave etc based on their BSP (Betfair Starting Price)
Does that mean the software is basing this off the favourite's BSP rather than actual price at the time?
Yes. Adam will be adding that in at some point. Don’t beat yourself up about it too much tho. Some will work in your favour and some not. It all balances out.
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@john-folan good point.
I've just noticed this on the software under the favourite filter
Select an option to restrict your results to the fave, 2nd fave etc based on their BSP (Betfair Starting Price)
Does that mean the software is basing this off the favourite's BSP rather than actual price at the time?
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan just checked and it does
This is pre-race favourite, 10 minutes out wanting 20 ticks, no stop loss and green up at off. £1 flat stakes
I suppose the only issue is pre race favourites changing but a clear favourite rule in your software should limit that massively
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@john-folan just checked and it does
This is pre-race favourite, 10 minutes out wanting 20 ticks, no stop loss and green up at off. £1 flat stakes
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@nick-allan @John-Folan This is what I got if I did 10 minutes pre-race, want 10 ticks on the favourite and a 5 tick stop loss. I put it so the trade will close at race start (I'm not sure from the software if that means it greens up or leaves that trade in play)
Should green up
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@nick-allan @John-Folan This is what I got if I did 10 minutes pre-race, want 10 ticks on the favourite and a 5 tick stop loss. I put it so the trade will close at race start (I'm not sure from the software if that means it greens up or leaves that trade in play)
This is the same if I left the trades were placed 10 seconds after the race start
Ideally, like you said, you'll do it manually with Geeks Toy but I don't have the time to be doing that myself so I'm hoping this could work as an alternative
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@nick-allan @John-Folan This is what I got if I did 10 minutes pre-race, want 10 ticks on the favourite and a 5 tick stop loss. I put it so the trade will close at race start (I'm not sure from the software if that means it greens up or leaves that trade in play)
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@nick-allan you're right that sometimes it jumps around and might miss things, but this is pre-race or very early on when the market is stable but the software is showing a win and my bot is showing a loss. It's more frustrating because when I first started testing the bot it worked perfectly and was getting really decent results, recently it's just not working and I'm getting losing days which is frustrating.
oh i see, yeah like john says it must be the madness you get pre race great to scalp manually if you ever would want to do that, its something i want to get back into
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@nick-allan you're right that sometimes it jumps around and might miss things, but this is pre-race or very early on when the market is stable but the software is showing a win and my bot is showing a loss. It's more frustrating because when I first started testing the bot it worked perfectly and was getting really decent results, recently it's just not working and I'm getting losing days which is frustrating.
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@martin I've got a scalping/ swing trade strategy that seems to work well in the software. It will require a bot and I'm struggling to get one that'll work as per the software. I'll share it in case anyone else can help. My biggest issue is with the stop loss, either hitting it too early or missing it completely. What should be a profitable month is roughly break even.
It might be one that's good in theory but needs tweaking in practice.
I have to thank @John-Folan for having a look at it and making some tweaks that increased its profitability. He also messed about with a BFBM bot.
I have personally found in the past when I used to do lay to back strategies I always use geeks toy and I would do it manually. The reason being - as you stated - I found using betangel guardian to be an absolute nightmare because it would keep missing the stop loss, this is particularly prevalent when you go into the last part of the race where odds fly about all over the place. It's different with doing DOBS as you're only gonna lose your stake, so that's not that bad, but if you've got a liability that is perhaps 10 times your stake and it doesn't stop you out you're gonna lose quite a big percentage of your bank and that's far too risky. My advice would always be to use software and I found that the best one to use is geeks toy, whether that scalping, swing trading, or trading in play it's the best I found. And although I do trade dob's and TROBS using bet Angel guadian I wouldn't do it the other way around, therefore any lay to backs I do I would always do manually. Also on geeks toy you can put in a stop loss in for say 14 ticks, and if you're away from the computer for any reason and it will automatically stop you out once it hits that level. I hope that helps.
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan fair enough. Yesterday was frustrating as the software shows a minor profit but mine is a 7pt loss. Quite the difference!
I've gone through my bot a number of times and just can't figure out how we're getting different results. It's like banging your head against the wall at times
Yep. Agree there. I’m wondering if it’s the initial chaos when a race starts. Looking at time delays now after a race starts
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@john-folan fair enough. Yesterday was frustrating as the software shows a minor profit but mine is a 7pt loss. Quite the difference!
I've gone through my bot a number of times and just can't figure out how we're getting different results. It's like banging your head against the wall at times
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan in fairness, the back strategy seems quite stable. I might try and reverse the same strategy and see if it works for laying pre-race
I did mean generally. Yours is pretty stable. Especially with a stop loss. Frustrating as that can be sometimes.
