Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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Short odds lays starting to bounce back. Really not sure about the flat pace. Not really interested in something with that high a drawdown.
Looking at some beaten favourites lays that have been pretty consistent the first two months of testing. Laying to a liability though which is much steadier.
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@john-folan Cheers John, that's more or less the formula I use except without the 2% commission as I'm using Smarkets
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@dan-mackinnon Hi Dan not at the moment as I would want to see if they are profitable going forward and if you would still get the right place price as I get on earlier in the day.Also I am using Smarkets and they don’t have an ew market.
Just as an aside yesterday I used the actual place prices that were available when I placed my win bets to tack what would happen and it would have resulted in a £5.55 profit on £1 stakes. I will try and do this daily -
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@gwyn-richards Interesting. Was getting a bit nervous about my flat pace, but looking at the place results they have pretty much broken even the last month, which says they are running well enough but just not getting the run of the green.
You might find this calculation helpful when you are doing your figures. Works out the p and l if it places(or doesn't). Just apply to the whole column.
=IF(P2="Y",(T2-1)*98%,-1)
I've just done this for all the results. The standard result gives you £940.71 profit, whereas the place is £98.97. Roughly 10% of the usual trade.
So the short answer is yes it is profitable, But, considering this is over 5,733 trades that works out at roughly 1p per trade. @David-Baker-0 would you look to trade this e/w rather than a straight back?
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Right so this very very unscientific and very very back of a fag packet but I have just gone over the last 4 days of results and based on the odds I got at the time there were 49 bets of which 21 placed (of which one with win odds of 55) and doing £1 stakes I would have made £15.77 (£43.77 - £28)
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@gwyn-richards Interesting. Was getting a bit nervous about my flat pace, but looking at the place results they have pretty much broken even the last month, which says they are running well enough but just not getting the run of the green.
You might find this calculation helpful when you are doing your figures. Works out the p and l if it places(or doesn't). Just apply to the whole column.
=IF(P2="Y",(T2-1)*98%,-1)
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@gwyn-richards said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@david-baker-0 Interesting; I'd wondered about the place market too, but I couldn't be bothered keeping tracks of the odds for paper trading or confusing myself by betting on both markets.
I've pasted below for interest a graph of my progress so far. This is from the evening of 8th August to today, 320 bets in total. The orange line is the nominal P/L if I'd been betting £1 every time.
Hi Gwyn lovely bit of graph porn there,wish I was capable of such things.Hopefully over the next few days I will have a look back at my results and check out the value of the place markets (had a very quick look from yesterday and a few longer odds did place).
Hope for a few winners today as I’ve not had a single one for the last 2 days -
@gwyn-richards cheers gwyn that would be good info too know
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@john-folan Oh yes, they'll be in the back-fitting software now won't they. I didn't think of that. Thanks! Will try to look into that and report back when I have time.
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@gwyn-richards said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@david-baker-0 Interesting; I'd wondered about the place market too, but I couldn't be bothered keeping tracks of the odds for paper trading or confusing myself by betting on both markets.
I've pasted below for interest a graph of my progress so far. This is from the evening of 8th August to today, 320 bets in total. The orange line is the nominal P/L if I'd been betting £1 every time.
If you download the individual results it tells you the place bsp and also whether they placed or not. Shouldn’t take too long to cobble together a profit and loss from that.
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@david-baker-0 Interesting; I'd wondered about the place market too, but I couldn't be bothered keeping tracks of the odds for paper trading or confusing myself by betting on both markets.
I've pasted below for interest a graph of my progress so far. This is from the evening of 8th August to today, 320 bets in total. The orange line is the nominal P/L if I'd been betting £1 every time.
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@gwyn-richards Nice one Gwyn.I had wondered about the place market with these as I noticed a few of the losers were placing but have not had time to check.As far as the time of placement I am coming round to think that earlier might be better as I am up more than the results are.
I ,like you ,am using Smarkets as it keeps everything separate from my football bank and I started on 50p stakes.I am increasing accordingly and am now on a £150 bank (from a £20 start) doing £1.50 bets. -
@david-baker-0 Nice! I got Dixiedoodledragon for 26 (and made an extra £16 backing it E/W with a free bet on bet365 - I always use the pace letter selections for small free bets with bookies now). I've been doing the PLB strategy in a less systematic way: if I'm able to then I back them a few mins before the off, but if I'm at work or have to go out then I'll do them all in the morning or in batches through the day.
Currently £35 up with £1 stakes, or 50p stakes if more than one horse qualifies. I started off with 50p stakes for all horses. (If it wasn't for Champagne City winning at 50.0 I'd be £15 down!) I'm using Smarkets rather than Betfair atm as I find it's easier to place 50p/£1 bets through their app, plus I'm on 0% commission with them.
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@keith said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@paul-keighley hi mate I’ve never had any issues at all logging in from the U.K. while my bot is running on the VPS. Not had any notifications from BF at all.
The only issue is the time difference which is 2 hours ahead on the VPS but it doesn’t affect the bot it’s just when you look at the event times in the bot they are 2 hours ahead.The time issue can easily be corrected
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@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan my Bet angel guardian keep firing at shorter odds than 1.8 so its somewhat skewed the results for me John
That’s annoying. Mine match the software. It’s just been a bad month. I reckon the weather going back to normal should sort things soon enough.
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@paul-keighley said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
ah ok thanks Adam, thats kind of what i was thinking. tbh I pretty never am in the UK so always log into betfair with a vpn, so could possibly just install this onto the vps as you mention, tho i think if the vpn disconnects for some reason when i'm not logged in then it cause some disruption for sure, so think maybe a UK vps might be the best solution so can leave it running all the time without a vpn. it's just that the uk based ones are literally over double the cost per month of say time4vps!
If it's working for you right now, I would leave as is
Proximity to Betfair's servers is more important now they have their streaming API as literally the closer you are, the sooner you'll receive the messages about price updates etc that they publish to all clients. But we're talking milliseconds differences, which might make a difference on very high volume trading bots but probably not for low volume stuff.
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@john-folan my Bet angel guardian keep firing at shorter odds than 1.8 so its somewhat skewed the results for me John
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@david-baker-0 yeah i got 34 from this morning as ive stopped taking BSP as it apprear at the moennt you lose value, may strighten out over time of course
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@adam said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
I'd recommend getting a UK-based VPS if you're running a Betfair bot, as you'll be closer to their servers.
If you must use one in a different country then obviously ensure it's a country where Betfair operates and/or use a UK VPN so you're accessing it from a UK IP address.
If you run your Betfair bot on a server in Lithuania and then log in to the Betfair website on your PC or something in the UK, at the very least you'll probably end up with your account getting locked and having to do a password reset.
I made this mistake myself recently...had stuff running on my UK server but logged into Betfair from Mexico. They locked me out thinking I'd been hacked and I had to change my password.
ah ok thanks Adam, thats kind of what i was thinking. tbh I pretty never am in the UK so always log into betfair with a vpn, so could possibly just install this onto the vps as you mention, tho i think if the vpn disconnects for some reason when i'm not logged in then it cause some disruption for sure, so think maybe a UK vps might be the best solution so can leave it running all the time without a vpn. it's just that the uk based ones are literally over double the cost per month of say time4vps!
