Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread
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@matt-wood Ha ha! Yes I find that, I can tweak things after every weekend and it can make recent data better - but if it's variance then it makes older data worse - and I never know where to stop. Every now and then I hit a good idea though that works for all matches to date.
I think I need a back up dim stool, mine's very worn out now!
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@gaz-hutchinson Sorry line 4 to 0.6 and line 2 to 0.8 is what I just looked at.
However this is only on recent data, my all time sheet, from mid Dec, this makes it worse
This is about where I get stuck in testing things.I will go and fetch my Dim Stool
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@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
dropping line for to a max of 0.6
Which line?
Can play around for ages with these, very interesting isn't it!!
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@gaz-hutchinson No probs. I have only ever had down to England National on my testing but seem to do well.
The lines on the filter I mention seem to be a little fluid. Ive just looked again now and dropping line 4 to a max of 0.6 has seen improvement now. Combine this with dropping the line 2 to a max of 0.8 has seen a near 4% increase in strike rate.
I keep wondering where the best spot is and cannot decide.This is only on data from 8th march. On my all time sheet its best at 1.4.
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@matt-wood Great - thanks for the confirmation. I thought it made sense to have those filters set that way, didn't quite understand the way I had them, also see my post to Martin below about the England Leagues I've been monitoring!
They seem to be bucking the April trend big time so far!"I don't know if you are still monitoring them, but I am monitoring ALL the England League matches the filter throws up (and you removed the 3pm kick offs) and since 26 March - 10th April there has been a £205.50 profit to £10 stakes for 68 games including all kick off times. It is worth adding all England matches back into your data to monitor them. 3 weekends so far since I started my spreadsheet, all profitable.
This weekend 9/10 April were 20 games and £53.60 profit to £10 stakes, ALL those games were 3pm except one at 2pm.Almost every countries leagues have taken a huge tumble, but NOT England yet"
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@gaz-hutchinson Evening Gaz. Don't apologise, I am regularly sat on the 'Dim Stool' myself
You have it correct. I was referring to lines 2 and 4 of the filter (the ones you pointed out).
My testing has taken a hit. Since April 1st I am 1.5pts down. However, League 1 and 2 from England are rocking some profit :).
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@gaz-hutchinson interesting to note!
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@martin I don't know if you are still monitoring them, but I am monitoring ALL the England League matches the filter throws up (and you removed the 3pm kick offs) and since 26 March - 10th April there has been a £205.50 profit to £10 stakes for 68 games including all kick off times. It is worth adding all England matches back into your data to monitor them. 3 weekends so far since I started my spreadsheet, all profitable.
This weekend 9/10 April were 20 games and £53.60 profit to £10 stakes, ALL those games were 3pm except one at 2pm.Almost every countries leagues have taken a huge tumble, but NOT England yet.
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@matt-wood Hi Matt, sorry if I'm being a bit dim but please can you clarify what this part of the post means?
"A little while back I posted my filter settings as they are slightly different to Martin's testing.
Line 2 is set to a max of 1.0 and line 4 is set to a max of 1.2"ie what does Line 2, and LIne 4 refer to?
Is it these lines ie filter 2 and 4 below, that need changing?
Copy of filter as I currently have it set up:
So Home Goals Conceded should be set to "less than or=1.0" and away Goals Conceded should be set to "less than or =1.20"?
That makes a lot of sense to me but not sure if that's what you mean by lines 2 and 4.
Also those leagues look better to me than Martin's, especially as he removed England 3pm kickoffs and actually all the filter chosen England matches (68 games) since 26 Mach have given a £205.50 profit to £10 stakes for me.
Sorry again if I'm being dim
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@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@chris-osborne said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@stuart-wallace don’t forget the summer leagues especially South America. This wouldn’t be a good strategy for Norway or Sweden but could have potential in the likes of Brazil/Argentina.
As Matt says though need data on the summer leagues before using own money
Agreed, Scandinavian leagues would be poor most likely. Might have some joy in the Japanese and Korean leagues. Data needed first though.
Japan and Korea must be close to hitting filters, some South American leagues also although Brazil only started this weekend
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@chris-osborne said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@stuart-wallace don’t forget the summer leagues especially South America. This wouldn’t be a good strategy for Norway or Sweden but could have potential in the likes of Brazil/Argentina.
As Matt says though need data on the summer leagues before using own money
Agreed, Scandinavian leagues would be poor most likely. Might have some joy in the Japanese and Korean leagues. Data needed first though.
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@keith said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@matt-wood I'm almost viewing this as a Nov to Mar strat. Nov so we've got plenty of games under our belt, and Mar to avoid the apparent APR/May rise in goals.
If we had enough data maybe this could switch to an OVER 2.5 goal strategy for April/May?
Yes it could work that way, just need the info before trying it out.
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@stuart-wallace said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@matt-wood I'm almost viewing this as a Nov to Mar strat. Nov so we've got plenty of games under our belt, and Mar to avoid the apparent APR/May rise in goals.
If we had enough data maybe this could switch to an OVER 2.5 goal strategy for April/May?
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@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@lee-leadbetter Yea its had a bit of a turn. I would probably get a years info really before trading real money on it. That way you can see any potential seasonal cycles in the different leagues.
Ye definitely need more data in regards to longevity over a season etc.
I have added in to my filter Avg Ovr Total Goals per game, this gives another angle to look at. For example seen Levante v Barcelona on the list but the Avg goals was 3.2 per game. Was 0-0 HT but 2-3 FT.
I think tracking the HT scores on my sheet would be beneficial also. -
@stuart-wallace don’t forget the summer leagues especially South America. This wouldn’t be a good strategy for Norway or Sweden but could have potential in the likes of Brazil/Argentina.
As Matt says though need data on the summer leagues before using own money
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@matt-wood I'm almost viewing this as a Nov to Mar strat. Nov so we've got plenty of games under our belt, and Mar to avoid the apparent APR/May rise in goals.
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@lee-leadbetter Yea its had a bit of a turn. I would probably get a years info really before trading real money on it. That way you can see any potential seasonal cycles in the different leagues.
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This hasnt half taken a hit since the turn of the month. I was ready to go in with real stakes on this one.
