Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread
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@andy-donnelly I like the idea for sure
I think I will track this on my testing too, thanks 
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@matt-wood Yeh I think it’s one to keep an eye on to see whether the strike rate holds over a longer set of data.
I see it potentially as a supplementary strat to the U2.5, where maybe you put 75% of your intended stake on the U2.5 and 25% on 0-0HT which could bolster profits.
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Just had a spare bit of time to mess about with my data.
Best strike rate I can get for 0-0 at HT is 37.78% That is 17 winners from 45 games. If average odds for under 0.5 FH is 3.5 at KO then it should be good for profit. Just not too many games, probably average 5 or 6 a week I guess.
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@andy-donnelly said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
Yeh will keep tracking, as I say I’m only in early stages (70 odd games) of testing so may well be an anomaly.
@Matt-Wood In my admittedly small set of data, if I filter on Overall O1.5 percentage to be less 65 percent of games that does seem to increase SR, interested if it did the same with your larger set (assuming you are tracking that stat)
If I remove all games that finished with more than 1 goal, HT 0-0 strike rate is about 33%.
I will have a mess about and see if there is any way to get that higher.
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@andy-donnelly Im not actively using that on the software but track total goals on my spreadsheet so will take from a results perspective
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Yeh will keep tracking, as I say I’m only in early stages (70 odd games) of testing so may well be an anomaly.
@Matt-Wood In my admittedly small set of data, if I filter on Overall O1.5 percentage to be less 65 percent of games that does seem to increase SR, interested if it did the same with your larger set (assuming you are tracking that stat)
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@andy-donnelly yep you would need average odds 2.5 at those odds and we know the average odds for no first half goal are around 3.5
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@andy-donnelly said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@Martin @Matt-Wood Guys, what percentage of games in your unders testing so far are 0-0 at HT?
I’m testing something in this area and although in very early stages I have around 40 per cent of games 0-0 at HT. If this continues through further testing I had thought of the angle of laying the first half goal or backing u0.5. Yeh you’ll lose more trades than you win but from what I’ve seen the odds should be there most of the time to make a decent profit with a 40 percent SR.
For my data the 0-0 HT is 31.56% (thats the raw data, possibly could be improved by messing about with the filter settings, leagues etc).
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@Martin @Matt-Wood Guys, what percentage of games in your unders testing so far are 0-0 at HT?
I’m testing something in this area and although in very early stages I have around 40 per cent of games 0-0 at HT. If this continues through further testing I had thought of the angle of laying the first half goal or backing u0.5. Yeh you’ll lose more trades than you win but from what I’ve seen the odds should be there most of the time to make a decent profit with a 40 percent SR.
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My name is on something
obviously it will all go wrong As Martin has said it is still early in testing so please don't risk actual money on it. C&C's more than welcome.
For some context, it is quite an open filter at the moment as I am just gathering data. Started on 1st Jan and have 564 games so far. Unrefined strike rate is 56.74% with average odds recorded of 1.88.
I also track the U3.5, not nearly as good though. 564 games, 76.6% ave odds 1.33.
