Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread
-
I think its time I called a halt to my U2.5 testing. Sometimes you just gotta say 'it doesn't work'.
I have tried various improvements and spent hours messing around with the data in my spreadsheet but each time I make an improvement it just does not stick consistently.
There may well be something in this but it will take a brain bigger and better than mine to figure it out
-
@lee-leadbetter I posted an update on mine about a month ago. Not been many selections since than and going about break even since then for me.
-
How is this going, is it still going?
I stopped tracking from end of april as i had 3 strategies of my own i was keeping up with but i know if had taken a dive April/May but not heard anything since or seen any results.
-
@david-pickett Great stuff David, post on here when you do as it will be really interesting to see what you come up with
-
@matt-wood I'm still testing, at 1842 games. I'm planning to do some analysis at 2k games of summer leagues and try to find the cut off point for the winter leagues.
-
@dan-mackinnon They may well do, something to look at going forward once I have nailed this side of it
Would need to be tested though as some leagues have been removed due to the odds being so low, Argentina for example, France 2 also has really poor odds. -
@matt-wood that’s interesting. I wonder if you’re removed leagues would work as an over 2.5 goal strategy?
-
Ok so not sure if anyone else, apart from Martin, is still testing this after its recent trip over the end of a cliff
I have just hit 1985 games and thought I would do some messing about since Ive got nothing better to do
So the best results I have come up with are as follows:
Line 2 of the filter set to max 0.8
Line 4 set to max 1.0
Odds range gave the best results when set to 1.75 - 3.3 (upper end has less data so that could be flexible).
Remove ALL May from the testing (i.e. stop trading at the end of April)
The league set up:
This ended up being a 56.81% strike rate (434 winners from 764 games)
Average odds of 2.04
P/L came out as 108.73pts to the good.If you were to remove all of the negative performing leagues on the watch list it would add another 14.35pts to that.
-
@matt-wood said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
well after praising league 1 it has been a goal fest this afternoon
We'll have to compare notes at some point my U1.5 lay has League 1 as a decent League
-
@james-rome said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
playing devils advocate here yes more games means more profit but also means more risk at the same just my opionion but from some my stuff working on for over1.5 i found going through the data if i tighten up a couple things half my number of trades and increased my profit by nearly double ...so maybe look at that figures like criteria 4 away goals conceded per ave H1 whats the average for the winning trades ? if tighten up criteria to meet that does that reduce trades and increase profit for example
Completely agree with this, part of the battle is to eliminate risk, high volumes at the same time will do the opposite.
-
playing devils advocate here yes more games means more profit but also means more risk at the same just my opionion but from some my stuff working on for over1.5 i found going through the data if i tighten up a couple things half my number of trades and increased my profit by nearly double ...so maybe look at that figures like criteria 4 away goals conceded per ave H1 whats the average for the winning trades ? if tighten up criteria to meet that does that reduce trades and increase profit for example
-
This is just an unsubstantiated, un verified, lets put it out there thought....
My preference would be to have more rather than less, and i understand Chris comment about not being able to cope with 28 matches all kicking off at same time, but....
I am thinking, longer term, of automating this, with say, Fairbot, and just plonking the games into the Automator? at 15.00 and letting it do its thing, therefore my preference would be to have more rather than less. Within the automation i might also have things such as price checking and also maybe some clever stuff around scores at various time and/or price points during the game ( i know its a set and forget strategy, but if you can automate this and make it 1 or 2 per cent better, then its obviously going to be better for the Bank).
#justathought -
@matt-wood probably going to have to be stricter on odds taken when there's high volume but who knows
-
@chris-osborne Agree here, I am concerned about the potential volume. In theory more games means more profit (in a successful strategy) but no way my bank could handle it right now.
Still Probably not going to be clear on how to reduce it until a lot of data is collected.
-
I’m liking the ongoing development that’s going on here for me the issue with the English leagues is going to be volume, there’s no way most of us will be able to trade 28 games starting at the same time
-
@gaz-hutchinson Just double checked my countries, I have also removed Colombia
-
@matt-wood Great. cheers Matt!
-
@gaz-hutchinson Yes just those removed for now. This is my current monitoring list:
Turkey 1 and 2
Northern Ireland
Costa Rica
England 5
Portugal 2
Guatemala
Thailand
Bulgaria 1
France 2
Scotland 2
Germany Nordost
Switz 2
EgyptMost likely I will be taking Turkey 1 out and probably 2 unless they pick up soon. Seems they had a good run during Jan and that has kept them on the list but they have just gotten worse and worse in the last few months.
-
@matt-wood Just amending my leagues in the filter, just those 9 removed still? In my results pretty much every league has taken a hammering in April except England, and a couple of smaller leagues (a couple with only a handful of games like Croatia have been profitable) but are you still just sticking with and monitoring the others?
