Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread
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@martin said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@david-baker-0 said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
I think there might be something in this end of season greater amount of goals theory.In the last 13 games of Martins filter there have been 56 goals at an average of 4.3 goals per game!
yeah got a feeling Euro leagues in April and May will be ones to avoid once testing is complete
Looks that way, last night was similar to last weekend definitely needs more testing right now be intersting to see if the other strategies are having similar issues - Overs should be fine at the minute I would guess
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@david-baker-0 said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
I think there might be something in this end of season greater amount of goals theory.In the last 13 games of Martins filter there have been 56 goals at an average of 4.3 goals per game!
yeah got a feeling Euro leagues in April and May will be ones to avoid once testing is complete
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I think there might be something in this end of season greater amount of goals theory.In the last 13 games of Martins filter there have been 56 goals at an average of 4.3 goals per game!
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With some very rough and ready league filtering on the U0.5 FHG idea the strike rate comes up to 48.91%. At this sort of rate anything over odds of 2.25 should turn a profit.
Admittedly I have not tracked odds on this but I certainly will be doing so from now on.
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Right then. I have been having a bit of a fiddle this morning (I do enjoy a good fiddle) with my unders data.
I have 1330 games recorded now.
A little while back I posted my filter settings as they are slightly different to Martin's testing.
Line 2 is set to a max of 1.0 and line 4 is set to a max of 1.2.
Odds are minimum of 1.65 (done manually) With the following league stipulations:
Results from this are a 59.12% strike rate with 114.02pts profit. (£1114.20 to £10 stakes). Average odds from this are 1.92.
Additionally I have been tracking the FHG situation and prompted by Miro's recent post I had another fiddle.
Taking the vanilla filter then making the following changes:
Line 1 set to max 0, Line 2 set to max 1.2, Line 3 set to max 0 and Line 4 set to max 0.6.
No leagues removed (all listed above used).
If you were to back UNDER 0.5 FHG (or lay the over) this turned up 74 winners from 178 games, a 41.57% strike rate. -
@miro Well sir if I am as 'with it' as you clearly are at 75 I will be a happy man
Once I have finished my second round of testing I have a more detailed tracking spreadsheet planned out. I will add in your ideas here and see how it goes.
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As much as I would like to take this on Matt, the task would be too much for this 75yo brain and body, unfortunately I am just not up to it.
Using the FH U0.5 goals facility would prove profitable from the stats that I have. I did not think of that.
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@miro Good stuff Miro.Interesting analysis.
I too was thinking about analysing first goal timings, and of the same concept of potentially cashing out at HT , should there be a certain scoreline or goals scored.
I wondered if this is something that could be automated via Fairbot (not that i know anything about Fairbot), so, just plug all the selections into FB and let it do its Automation accordingly. I am intending to play around with FB next Monday and Tuesday (weekend for me!), download the free trial, to see if i can get a bot working in that respect. -
@miro Morning Miro, some food for thought there certainly.
I don't know but U1.5 and trading out at HT may well be a good idea, although you would need to check how many of those games had 1 goal in the FH as I imagine it would be a small red or scratch at HT cash out?
I have been tracking the possibility of backing U0.5 FHG, or just U0.5 and trading out at HT. Current strike rate is 34.60%. I think Martin mentioned somewhere that average FHG odds would be around 3.5.
Maybe repeat your investigation on the entirety of Martin's sheet? See what that does to the SR.
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Hi Matt.
Having looked through Martin’s sheet. I felt that there was more to be taken from your strategy, so Using pen and paper I have been burning a little midnight oil of late and have put some findings below. Maybe some food for thought!Using a ‘random’ small number of matches 200+ from Martins sheet it appears that there is indeed more to be taken from the selections within that sheet.
I used any country and odds of 1.6 and above. I researched those random 200+ games for no goals within the first 20 minutes. Although there were goals within that period, from the 200+ games I researched this has still turned in a very nice profit.
Whilst I was doing this, I also noted from the same games that the Under 1.5 goals in the FIRST HALF section produced in excess of virtually 88% wins. But of course, as I have no way of knowing the odds for U1.5 for these past games I cannot say how much profit (if any) this would have produced. However, using average odds of 1.38 I am certain that a good profit would have been made. Perhaps using the match U1.5 goals would be better and trade out at HT as the odds are much larger.
These are just some facts from a small number of selections. Although, I do think that using all the games would also produce a profit.
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@stuart-wallace said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@chris-osborne said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@oliver-moore said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@stuart-wallace Those games were all under 1.65 when I checked. The two German games which were over 1.65 were both losses.
Are you doing these whatever the price?Aside from the first game i have only been paper trading - didnt really monitor prices tbh. I know that the Sprtsport game was about 1.56 which was just inside the guideline of 1.5 as per Martins narrative on the filter
the south african game was below 1.5 also the filter states below 1.65 where there is no value
Not sure what you are eluding to. I checked and game was at 1.53 at start for me. Plus also Martins comment is clear in that 1.5 or below do not qualify. I appreciate he mentions that 1.65 upwards is preferable, but , as per my screenshot, it explicitly mentions 1.5.
@stuart-wallace, I think the confusion is that the min odds of 1.5 was right at the start of the testing done here, and I believe an arbitrary figure Martin used as he, IIRC, doesn't like betting too low odds. Since then, the analysis has shown that 1.65 is better using the current data. Of course, this may change again with more data.
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@chris-osborne said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@oliver-moore said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@stuart-wallace Those games were all under 1.65 when I checked. The two German games which were over 1.65 were both losses.
Are you doing these whatever the price?Aside from the first game i have only been paper trading - didnt really monitor prices tbh. I know that the Sprtsport game was about 1.56 which was just inside the guideline of 1.5 as per Martins narrative on the filter
the south african game was below 1.5 also the filter states below 1.65 where there is no value
Not sure what you are eluding to. I checked and game was at 1.53 at start for me. Plus also Martins comment is clear in that 1.5 or below do not qualify. I appreciate he mentions that 1.65 upwards is preferable, but , as per my screenshot, it explicitly mentions 1.5.
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@stuart-wallace said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@oliver-moore said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@stuart-wallace Those games were all under 1.65 when I checked. The two German games which were over 1.65 were both losses.
Are you doing these whatever the price?Aside from the first game i have only been paper trading - didnt really monitor prices tbh. I know that the Sprtsport game was about 1.56 which was just inside the guideline of 1.5 as per Martins narrative on the filter
the south african game was below 1.5 also the filter states below 1.65 where there is no value
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@oliver-moore said in Matt's Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Thread:
@stuart-wallace Those games were all under 1.65 when I checked. The two German games which were over 1.65 were both losses.
Are you doing these whatever the price?Aside from the first game i have only been paper trading - didnt really monitor prices tbh. I know that the Sprtsport game was about 1.56 which was just inside the guideline of 1.5 as per Martins narrative on the filter
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@james-rome If that SR holds up for 500 odd games there could be something there
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@matt-wood so i copied the filter just took the odds off it just find it misses selections on the software just manually remove them if the under 1.65 and over2.75 i think max odds are i mean have no idea what odds at ht like but thats only off like 100 selections
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@james-rome Is that from Martins set up? 85% is much more like it for a SHG
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@matt-wood just started to track it but around 85% SHG
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@stuart-wallace Those games were all under 1.65 when I checked. The two German games which were over 1.65 were both losses.
Are you doing these whatever the price?
