Set & Forget Football Strategies

Richard Latimer

Couple more selections to add (inc. the last one as well):

Lay all home unless odds less than 1.9.

Richard Latimer

@Martin that's alright, I'll be minted

Martin

@Richard-Latimer yeah I thought about that but then I saw the house prices!

Richard Latimer

@Martin It certainly is, just a shame can't guarantee the weather in this country.

It's North Devon and I have quite a bit of local knowledge as I lived there for years before moving back to Oxfordshire.

I'll retire to Cornwall when I'm done. Or at least get a holiday home there.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer beautiful part of the world

Richard Latimer

@Martin Devon. First holiday with my new blended family and seeing mum, sister, brother at the same time.

Not quite abroad but it will have to do for this year!

Martin

@Richard-Latimer anywhere nice?

Richard Latimer

Going on holiday Fri so doing some things early. One selection for Friday:

Lay El Masry vs Al Ahly in Egypt.

Andy Lucy

@Richard-Latimer keep posting Richard as looks like a decent Strat . So far so gd

Richard Latimer

1/2 and 3rd straight day with small loss.

I'm still up about 10% this month. Confident things will improve again.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer fingers crossed on the game in Chile. Lithuania was a bollox again!

Completely unrelated but while odds 2.5 or under have shown an overall profit and a decent one....all of this is confined to the later stages of Feb and March/April. They've been break even at best since.

I've removed all odds 1.9 or under as these are break even from the start and the rest is under consideration.

In theory, even though I lose a few points from the overall system it will boost the s/r and make me able to stake slightly higher. I'll come back to this.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

Caught a loser today at odds of 3.40. Need the early one to come through to minimise that loss. Next up these 3 on the home lays:

2/3 for another very small loss Too many low odds at the moment and while the risk is obviously less they are much less consistent.

Richard Latimer

Laying both these home teams tomorrow.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

I'm doing selections for both the following afternoon and morning after now. Means I don't get caught racing to get overnighters or morning selections done. May as well post all now:

Laying all home teams:

I have very carefully worked out my stake accoridng to current strike rates and longest expected losing streak (this x5 would be what it takes to bust the bank).

Odds 3.5 or lower 76% s/r (rounded up) 140 selections
Odds 3.55-7.40 93% (rounded down) 129 selections
Odds 7.6-11.00 94% (rounded down) 36 selections

2/3 for a small loss.

Richard Latimer

Caught a loser today at odds of 3.40. Need the early one to come through to minimise that loss. Next up these 3 on the home lays:

Richard Latimer

I'm doing selections for both the following afternoon and morning after now. Means I don't get caught racing to get overnighters or morning selections done. May as well post all now:

Laying all home teams:

I have very carefully worked out my stake accoridng to current strike rates and longest expected losing streak (this x5 would be what it takes to bust the bank).

Odds 3.5 or lower 76% s/r (rounded up) 140 selections
Odds 3.55-7.40 93% (rounded down) 129 selections
Odds 7.6-11.00 94% (rounded down) 36 selections

Richard Latimer

This is the graph of p/l

I've hardly made any adjustments in ages. The removal of certain South American leagues was done after I noticed the s/r was poor across the board for South America since I started collecting data in Feb.

A closer look however revealed that only a small number of those South American countries were bringing the overall down and to rmove the others without reason to do so would have been to throw away decent profit.

That decision has so far proved correct with a few decent results coming in South America and a couple negative ones avoided.

The last change I made was ruling out an away 3 streak loss. 1 small odds loss this month but it was literally the only one since Feb that I'd seen with a 3 streak loss and it lost. Makes no sense to collect 3 or 4 results a season that may be like that.

Richard Latimer

@Martin Get alot of draws, a few crazy comebacks so holding your nerve quite often necessary. Good thing here is average odds low and justas many odds 3.5 or under as there are between 3.55-7.4.

Only a few go over those odds. I take them around 5 mins before kick off as well as sometimes the price drops quite a lot.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

@Martin Laying Nashville @ home against Orlando in MLS

these are unreal mate! not just winning but 0-3!

Richard Latimer

Nashville 0 - 3 Orlando