Set & Forget Football Strategies
-
@Martin Same, also looking at home odds and league positions of both teams to see if there is any correlation there
-
@Martin Yeh had a look at your spreadsheet too to see if it correlated with my data. Looks like the SR does jump 6 percentage points in your data as well by removing under 3.25.
Think it had a very small profit under 3.25 in your data but profit per trade on those was so small that may still be worth removing. Definitely one to monitor for a bit longer tho.
-
@Andy-Donnelly good work! I'm still testing all odds below 5.8 nearly a years data so I'll do a deep dive end of Jan can't wait!
-
Doing a bit of analysis on the Lay Away today. The data I have is suggesting that the bottom odds should be more like 3.25 rather than 2.48.
SR jumps 6 percentage points when you remove those below 3.25.
Going to monitor until end of November and if data continues that way will make change. This change would also reduces a little, the number of selections which can be pretty crazy particularly on the weekends, which is probably not a bad thing.
-
M Martin pinned this topic on
-
@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS here is a video step by step guide
-
@Martin HI MARTIN, i am struggerling to add these filters?
when i go to sav, export, apply
i get lost
-
@Andy-Donnelly Yeah, I was thinking about adding an away points per game < 1 potentially. At the minute, I am taking all games that are on the normal filter and then adding a comment as to why I am/am not trading it.
It might be that the filter doesn't need it and it still works out as profit in the long run. However I will record all the results, regardless of whether I back the selection or not. From that point, I will be able to see whether my choice was right/wrong or whether a filter needs tweaking.
-
@alexander-hughes Yep agreed, I do that myself. Sometimes you find selections where the odds are there to trade but just have had very little money matched and probably why they don’t pull through on the software immediately
-
@Andy-Donnelly It's better to remove the odds from BTC filters anyway and filter yourself or using automation software.
The reason is that the odds change which makes the selections change. The selections via BTC won't change if it isn't comparing odds so you'll get everything that otherwise qualifies and won't have different results depending on the time you checked BTC.
Obviously if you don't have automation software to filter on odds conditions that might be a proper pain though.
-
Just added myself
I have also cloned the filter and removed the criteria on home odds. Makes no sense having that. After all you are laying the away team within a certain odds range. If home odds happens to be shorter than 1.7 then don’t see a reason why you wouldn’t trade it.
-
@Joe-Beeston Nice observation. I reckon it’s worth adding an away points criteria as an informational column of data I.e greater than or equal to zero. Would probably be helpful in researching
-
Yes, you can't just blindly follow the filters, I made that mistake at first. Essentially the software allows you to use statistics to see if there is value in the prices. There is a chance that the statistics will give a selection, that still isn't value. Like Ryan says, it allows you to be a sniper, not scatter gunning.
Today is a prime example, on the Lay The Away there is Turkgucu vs Vilzing. The filter has pulled it through as Turkgucu are strong at home AVG > 2 pts; however if you look into the fixture, Vilzing are amazing away (Won 8 out of 10). Now the selection may win, but I am avoiding it as Vilzing are mega strong away. Shows that blindly following the selections might not work.
Also asks the question, does the away points per game need to be added, but you will only know by testing
-
I am paper trading loads of systems (mainly set and forgets), and wish i had done this from day 1 when i joined could of saved an absolute fortune.
In fact i find it quite interesting recording the data ( i know boring old git lol). If feel so much relaxed knowing that i will only start trading with money once i know it is profitable over a few months.
Several of the systems have been performing well over the summer leagues but finding some are not so good so far on the winter leagues. That is why it is good not to put hard earned cash on anything until proven long term. -
I used to think set and forget was only that. Get the selections from the software and job done. Finally got my backside in to gear and researched each selection. Its not about getting on every winner its about trying to avoid the losers. Makes to big difference long term. Only paper trading for now. While i get used to researching, what best to look for etc. I know its part of the Ryans super trader program. But actually doing it really opens your eyes.
-
@Michal-Sebik see Adam's post in the football thread from yesterday re reuploaded matches https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4341/new-football-thread/19?_=1696750168500
-
@Michal-Sebik Oxford United and Inter Turku games
-
@Andy-Donnelly which were these? I am slightly in loss today.. but I am doing both Martin and yours.
-
@Michal-Sebik Yeh when I say not many selections, I mean those that hit the odds range. Got 2 today though and both winners at big prices
