Set & Forget Football Strategies
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could anyone explain the filters for the (Tomasz Under 1.5 Goals) strategy please, it looks like its looking for low scoring games. Thanks
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I'll usually look at the filters in the morning or late at night the day before (due to work) and queue the matches where the odds aren't quite what I'm after. If the odds are too far below what I want I'll leave it if I feel it will take too long in the match for the odds to hit, especially with the Over 1.5 strategy.
I don't have loads of data but since I've started queuing the matches it seems to be going fine. I haven't lost out on many trades this way which I was worried about due to the time for the odds to get matched.
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
With set and forgets do most people just look in the morning or does anyone request a price with the odds parameters to see if it gets matched. If so, how successful is this method??
Bit of both mainly looking in the morning but I do queue a trade on occasions especially ltd or laying U1.5 prices are slightly too high
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I tend to look in the morning and if there are some that are close to the odds needed, I will queue a bet and potentially check on those nearer kick off, but that’s just me.
There does seem to be a lot of variance depending on time of day you enter. One to look at when back testing arrives
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With set and forgets do most people just look in the morning or does anyone request a price with the odds parameters to see if it gets matched. If so, how successful is this method??
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As we’re over half way through Feb, are last months performance review videos in the pipeline for both the football and racing set and forget strategies
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Hi Martin, is the over 3.5 lays still in the testing stage? I notice its doing a lot better than the other 3.5 goals strategies. Is the filter available?
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@dave-tancock it doesn't really matter that much but one way you can see is to put both bets into Betfair and see which one works out the best, of course you have to scale the bet accordingly as your back amount will be the same as your liability on the lay effectively.
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Probably a daft question but how do you choose between laying under 1.5 goals and backing over 1.5 goals. It’s the same outcome but I am unsure how you work out which has more value?
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The 1.5 strategy started as a shg filter. It can be tweaked to reach 87-90% shg chance
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@nick-allan yeh, that could be the next thing I look at with this strategy. I wanted to keep it easy and just stake at half time then leave it, but I'm seeing there could be some value in doing a split stake strategy with this. Quick glance shows around 50% with a goal after 79mins. I can split my data up more to see where the value is but I need to tweak my strategy as well before I go putting more work into this part.
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@dave-tancock true but you can still bet them by leaving a kept in play bet at the required odds, had 2 where the odds were lower than 1.25 it only takes a couple of mins to be matched in-play.
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@jon-kinnear nice although only 5 met the odds criteria when I looked this morning.
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Martin over 1.5 goal backs 8 winners out of 8 for today, awesome strategy
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@dave-tancock From what I understand there is going to be a backtesting addition to the software like you have for the horse racing software where you can create a strategy and then back test it, @Martin has there been any updates in regards to this?
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@duane-kellock just an idea but have you thought about a spilt stake with SHG? i currently do this - so i trade £10 stakes so £10 is 1 pt
I stake as follows:
£4 at 1.3-1.4,
£4 at 2.0,
£1 at 3.0
£1 at 5.0if you get a goal in say 90 - min you could be looking at around an 11 quid profit or 1.1 pts. The difficulties lies in looking at an effective SR, obviously if you are only looking at odds of 1.3 its easier to calculate and to be honest there are normally early goals so you only end up getting one of the stakes matched.
Im getting close to being consistently profitable on this strategy, it still needs more tweaking but I’m start to get excited about it. It will probably have a bad month now I’ve said that -
If someone wants to make an amendment to a set and forget, is there an option to back test or would it be try it compared to the base filter and see if it’s better moving forwards?
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@john-malloy also only on min stakes. Won’t consider increase my stakes until I get consecutive profitable months.