Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Martin @Taff-Phillips Thank you both for the info...is there a way of checking Martin's filter...just want to learn as much as i can ...
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@David-Linney
Welcome mate - yes that is correct, no selections for that filter today. You won't get selections every day for every filter. Some days there won't be any selections for any of the Profitable Member Filters. Don't be tempted to over trade. Just wait for the selections to come up and then stick to your staking plan. Patience is key
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Hi All
First day in the community...looking at testing the lay over 3.5 goals that are in the members filters...have watched the videos, but there appears to be no selections today/tomorrow....is that normal...or is there something i'm missing ?
David
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@Rene-Ostenfeld you haven't read the OP have you
here you go https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/new-martins-revised-7-key-rules-trading-football -
@Terry-Heller Thanks for the reply. I have looked at my data again. I have the same result Martins O 1.5 Back being very good all months since I started trading. I will seriously consider you advice on turning the 1.5 on the head and lay instead.
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@Martin Thanks for the reply. When would you typical "stop trading" - last 5 or 10 games ?
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@Rene-Ostenfeld Quite new myself so take what I say with a pinch of salt. I thought that with the new stats software coming at some point it will be possible to back test some of these strategies. I have found that Tomasz one has performed under par the last couple of months whereas the one called Martins O1.5 Backs has performed pretty well.
Tomasz one probably looks the most profitable when you first look at what is on offer. On a quiet day not long after I joined I did a few hours going through Martins O1.5 one and found that if you had layed the unders as per the Tomasz strategy the profit on that would have looked much more impressive. But of course when you are laying at odds against you are effectively staking a lot more !
When things seem to be going wrong look at it as an opportunity to learn something that will benefit you in the long run.
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@Rene-Ostenfeld end of season, I have said to avoid it many times, I avoid it.
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Hi Guys. I am new forum and have only 2,5 months’ worth of trading using some of the strategies.
The Tomasz Lay Under 1.5 Goals is going in the red for me in April and May. March was very good and I expect some variation, but would like to hear if I am the only one? .
Can’t see the set and forget spreadsheet being updated for April? -
@Fraser-cord The selections that you get would be the ones on the daily email which is never anything like that number.
I get some extra ones as I have removed the upper odds limit. Some I discard based on the odds vs the strike rate. Using overall odds FT O1.5 puts the SR for a game in decimal terms and makes comparing the BF odds easier.
It still needs a lot more data that I cant get from the official spreadsheet as a back test but I am going to track this one. -
@Terry-Heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Regarding "Martin's Over 1.5 Goals - Backs"
I started a new spreadsheet for these at the start of April as I made a small change to the filter by removing the upper odds limit and adding a value test.
The results so far over 61 selections match the S/R of the original but I also record goal times and the amount of goals for each game.
At this early stage it seems to show
1 FHG S/R is as good as the over 1.5
2 Over 2.5 is quite healthy at 58%So I will start tracking the prices for the 2.5 market now
@Terry-Heller , is this all the selections the filter usually shows (you know how you can get upwards of 20-30 at the weekend) or have the selections been significantly reduced? What kept putting me of was the sheer volume of selections.
What Criteria do you use on the value test, just above SR or a set level above? -
@Martin-Walker I need much more data
But currently
FHG 78%
SHG 74%
1.5 78% Ave Price 1.3
2.5 58%There was one selection today that finished 0-0 at 1.46 for O1.5 2.4 for O2.5
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@Terry-Heller im glad someone is looking to get something out of this filter. Its not great as a set and forget but theres so much value to be taken from it with some tracking and tweaks. Im currently using it as a second half goal
Filter pulling in 10-20% of my bank a month -
Regarding "Martin's Over 1.5 Goals - Backs"
I started a new spreadsheet for these at the start of April as I made a small change to the filter by removing the upper odds limit and adding a value test.
The results so far over 61 selections match the S/R of the original but I also record goal times and the amount of goals for each game.
At this early stage it seems to show
1 FHG S/R is as good as the over 1.5
2 Over 2.5 is quite healthy at 58%So I will start tracking the prices for the 2.5 market now
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@Nathan-Cooke inadvertently testing an LTD which will probably become a back the draw!
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Anyone have a 'back the draw' filter they've been running?
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@Chris-King Yeh i do use a spreadsheet but its the formula side of things and deciding what i need to track. Looking at other peoples they look very advanced in comparison but probably are not as fancy as they look.
I've got win/loss/profit per trade/ total as far back as August last year but realising i need goal times as well as results. I think the goal times will make a big difference, which i will go back and fill when i can. My maths is decent so can generally work out how many wins i need at a price range and can track if that's happening etc. But having it all done for me would certainly save time, i know excel can its just deciding what data i need 1st.
Hopefully all the hard yards will bring the rewards long term.
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@Fraser-cord About spreadsheets, i had ZERO experience on spreadsheets until almost a year after i started learning to trade. I realised that tracking my trading was an essential (for me) factor if i wanted to make a success out of it.
Since i started tracking using spread sheets my trading has improved in so many aspects, beyond what i could have imagined. From discipline, trading volume, planning a days trading, odds ranges and how they relate to strike rates, bankroll management and more. Everything i do goes though a spreadsheet.
The most valuable thing that’s come out of doing it is it’s allowed me to learn how to test, and test everything, effectively trading without any financial risk or stress, seeing how a strategy develops and if it’s profitable, being able to trade it with confidence as i’ve practised and experienced everything about it in testing and can implement the process almost robotically.
As i said i knew nothing about them but the pro’s said it was vital so had to learn to get better. I’ve had no official training and mine are by no means advanced but they do what i need them to and if i need to add anything to them i just research how.
I’ve copied other’s, taken bits i needed, created my own from them and used formulas I’ve found on other’s and in free online tutorials. They can also be far more basic than mine are and still be as effective.
Copy one of mine if you want. You can obviously customise it your needs.I highly recommend using the online trading tools/calculators linked in the super trader thread when learning/testing/tracking. These have been vital in my improvement and understanding
http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/post/140917
It’s taken time and a bit or hard work and learning but it’s changed everything i do in trading for the better
