Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@ross-love said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Hi Martin, could you post the over 3.5 lay filter please so I can add it to my filters. Thank you
here you go:0_1676798834497_filter-settings.txt
Bare in mind max odds are 3.5
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@jon-kinnear i get it. Thank you mate
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@andrew-dobinson When they were testing the strategy, they were looking for a back under 1.5 goals strategy. it turns out it worked better as a lay under1.5 goals strategy. lots of people think these games will have less goals this causes the prices to move in favour of those using this strategy. most games have 2 goals, these games have decent value.
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could anyone explain the filters for the (Tomasz Under 1.5 Goals) strategy please, it looks like its looking for low scoring games. Thanks
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I'll usually look at the filters in the morning or late at night the day before (due to work) and queue the matches where the odds aren't quite what I'm after. If the odds are too far below what I want I'll leave it if I feel it will take too long in the match for the odds to hit, especially with the Over 1.5 strategy.
I don't have loads of data but since I've started queuing the matches it seems to be going fine. I haven't lost out on many trades this way which I was worried about due to the time for the odds to get matched.
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
With set and forgets do most people just look in the morning or does anyone request a price with the odds parameters to see if it gets matched. If so, how successful is this method??
Bit of both mainly looking in the morning but I do queue a trade on occasions especially ltd or laying U1.5 prices are slightly too high
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I tend to look in the morning and if there are some that are close to the odds needed, I will queue a bet and potentially check on those nearer kick off, but thatโs just me.
There does seem to be a lot of variance depending on time of day you enter. One to look at when back testing arrives
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With set and forgets do most people just look in the morning or does anyone request a price with the odds parameters to see if it gets matched. If so, how successful is this method??
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As weโre over half way through Feb, are last months performance review videos in the pipeline for both the football and racing set and forget strategies
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Hi Martin, is the over 3.5 lays still in the testing stage? I notice its doing a lot better than the other 3.5 goals strategies. Is the filter available?
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@dave-tancock it doesn't really matter that much but one way you can see is to put both bets into Betfair and see which one works out the best, of course you have to scale the bet accordingly as your back amount will be the same as your liability on the lay effectively.
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Probably a daft question but how do you choose between laying under 1.5 goals and backing over 1.5 goals. Itโs the same outcome but I am unsure how you work out which has more value?
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The 1.5 strategy started as a shg filter. It can be tweaked to reach 87-90% shg chance
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@nick-allan yeh, that could be the next thing I look at with this strategy. I wanted to keep it easy and just stake at half time then leave it, but I'm seeing there could be some value in doing a split stake strategy with this. Quick glance shows around 50% with a goal after 79mins. I can split my data up more to see where the value is but I need to tweak my strategy as well before I go putting more work into this part.
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@dave-tancock true but you can still bet them by leaving a kept in play bet at the required odds, had 2 where the odds were lower than 1.25 it only takes a couple of mins to be matched in-play.
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@jon-kinnear nice although only 5 met the odds criteria when I looked this morning.
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Martin over 1.5 goal backs 8 winners out of 8 for today, awesome strategy