Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Everyone whos using the 1.5 should track it and work out which leagues they can get rid of like chris mentioned. Ive just had a look at an old spreadsheet that has it running at 84% over 750 games.
I still use the filter for my current trading but with mainly the main European leagues.
I now have the H2 avg at 1.8 as it lets me re enter for SHG at a high 80s strike rate -
So the general consensus with over 1.5 goals is that this is just a blip and will sort itself out hopefully sooner rather than later. Thanks guys
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@john-malloy Yeah i agree about Martins over 1.5, its a good strat and i'm sticking with it, i also do Tomasz + ELO away lays its a no brainer to be on these 3 for set and forget, the others dont really have enough data yet.
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I feel like Martins over 1.5 still hasn't settled since the WC, but the results previously are really good. I think it'll come back just got t9 ride it out, at the end of the day it's just treading water, it hasn't fell off a cliff... I'm tracking all the strategies and keeping a few live, and then if the others that are being tracked improve then adding them. So fron the daily list for me. That's elo lay away, over.1.5 and Tomasz, also Ryan Ltd split stake and Shg. I'm also working on my own strategies. Bloody spreadsheets everywhere.. the missus is wondering what I'm up to all the time .....
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@dave-tancock same thing I mentioned to John have a look at league performances and eliminate those with a low strike rate. With odds 1.25 to 1.35, you need a high strike rate
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With over 1.5 set and forget, should I just use the ones in the daily email. The reason I ask is that I’ve yet to have a profitable month with this strategy. Granted my first month I was probably trigger happy and too eager to trade and next 2 months were dec/jan, however I was 1-2 points down last month as well. Is there any way to improve the strike rate or is it just a case of variance and I should stick it out or is there something else I can do. For reference I check the stats software early morning and only trade on matches that are within the odds parameters. I’d struggle to check more often or nearer start times due to work and family commitments. Sorry for the long message.
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Hi Chris. Yeah thanks that's probably a good point actually check which leagues are working best, I was basically thinking what's the best way to approach over 2.5 in play. Thanks.. I'll keep checking and give it 100 and see where its at then.
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@john-malloy said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Hi guys ive been worling on a filter for over 2.5 s and f, however it has performed so far poorly after 49 games, although ive also thankfully been testing it for over 1.5 and its done great 88% so far, however I was looking at the goal times and if I was trading over 2.5 after the 20th minute until the 70th, it would be 27 winners, or scratch, and only two out and out losers, well that was just me looking at the data I have collected goal times etc,, and quickly summising which ones would have been tradeable i.e 0-0 after 20,,, however,,, if I was to approach trading over 2.5 what would be the reccomended entry point 20? and is 70 too late for example, its not enough time left to be profitable, I was thinking perhaps something like ryans SS perhaps 75% at 20 mins, and the 25% at around 55 mins? the odds on over 2.5 at 55 if 0-0 should be high enough to make it profitbal before 70 if a goal goes in shouldnt it? any thought welcome,, thanks in advance.
Have you considered cashing out or removing liability on the 1st goal.
Also, 49 games not really enough of a sample size - first thing I'd do is eliminate leagues that are poor performers but 49 games not enough to get a true picture. The strike rite would increase significantly
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Hi guys ive been worling on a filter for over 2.5 s and f, however it has performed so far poorly after 49 games, although ive also thankfully been testing it for over 1.5 and its done great 88% so far, however I was looking at the goal times and if I was trading over 2.5 after the 20th minute until the 70th, it would be 27 winners, or scratch, and only two out and out losers, well that was just me looking at the data I have collected goal times etc,, and quickly summising which ones would have been tradeable i.e 0-0 after 20,,, however,,, if I was to approach trading over 2.5 what would be the reccomended entry point 20? and is 70 too late for example, its not enough time left to be profitable, I was thinking perhaps something like ryans SS perhaps 75% at 20 mins, and the 25% at around 55 mins? the odds on over 2.5 at 55 if 0-0 should be high enough to make it profitbal before 70 if a goal goes in shouldnt it? any thought welcome,, thanks in advance.
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@chris-osborne said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@terry-cooke maybe paper trade for a bit and see what works for you?
That's what I'm planning to do, but wanted to figure out if to lay at £10 or have the liability at £10 so I can get an accurate reflection of profits, but now that I'm thinking about it, its probably best to track the data for both.
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@terry-cooke maybe paper trade for a bit and see what works for you?
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@chris-osborne Thanks Chris. That sounds sensible to me now you put it like that.
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@terry-cooke said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Afternoon all!
With Tomasz Lay U1.5 £10 stakes, when placing on Betfair is £10 the backers stake or is it £10 total liability?
Personal preference - all my lay trades are at liability but others lay to stake
The advantage of laying to liability is you reduce your potential losses but obviously your winnings are lower. I personally prefer to protect my bankroll which is why I lay to liability. Aill always take the option of winning £5 but only losing £10 instead of losing £50 but only winninf £10 exc commission
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Afternoon all!
With Tomasz Lay U1.5 £10 stakes, when placing on Betfair is £10 the backers stake or is it £10 total liability?
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@ross-love said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@andy-donnelly I was down also on the 1.5. I think Martin must have missed off the results from Saturday the 18th by mistake as they aren’t on the spreadsheet.
I can't track every day, sometimes I have to have some semblance of a life
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@andy-donnelly I was down also on the 1.5. I think Martin must have missed off the results from Saturday the 18th by mistake as they aren’t on the spreadsheet.
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@andrew-bannister Yep agreed! I don’t let any of them go in play if not matched beforehand, however in the morning if I see one of the selections only a few ticks out at say 1.22/1.23/1.24, I will queue a bet at 1.25! They do often get matched pre kick off.
I had a marginally negative month on this last month but as I said, this should even itself out over a long period of time.
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Just seen the latest results video. I was surprised that over 1.5 goals was up as I was actually down for February by a couple points. I’ve been sticking to the parameters 1.25-1.35, has the filter changed in the last couple months, or is there something else I may have done wrong?
It does depend on the time of day with this. I've noticed today for example, there is only 1 selection in the email but there is 6 or 7 on the actual filter....and also on the results sheet the bets do not tally with email selections sometimes. So I think it's down to you what you back. It's a brilliant filter so it will even out over time anyway.
Last month I think I had 5 more selections than on the results sheet with 1 more loss than results sheet.
