Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Though I’d let everyone know that I lJust noticed that with over 3.5 lays, if I removed the games with odds under 2.00, the strike rate jumps from 64%-71%. It’s early days for now but a tweak I may consider in the future, when I have more data.
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Just watched Ryans LTD video from last week and had a look in the members filter at it.
The rules in the members filter bear no resemblance to what Ryan was saying. EG home team over 70% score first, filter says 55%, away team 70%, no mention in filter, etc, Has this been updated, which one is current and cant find any results for this strategy, not on spreadsheet. Have not used this strategy myself yet, just need clarification please, Thanks -
@dave-tancock international break, should be some after it's finished
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I’ve not seen a game flagged by over 3.5 lays or Tomas under 1.5 lays in about 2 weeks. Just wondering if this is the same for everyone else?
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Evening all
Hope everyone had a good weekend - trading and the rest of it!
I'm just getting into some of these set and forget. Just wondering if I'm looking at this all wrong so excuse if this is a silly question...
On the Tomasz lay U1.5 I was looking at the filters and it is looking for high % of games going under 1.5 and 2.5. Is this because it is looking at games/teams where there has been a lack of goals and then assuming the odds will be favourable and there is a likelyhood of goals coming as teams will likely come back towards the norm/average? So a kind of 'contra' strategy?
Or... have aread the filter all wring.
@Martin - the lay away filter has been on fire this weekend
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin thanks for the advice. I’ll leave the over 1.5 for now. With Tomasz lays strategy, are we still using through the summer leagues?
HI Martin i have tightened up the filter selections yesterday by looking only trading if 80% of matches have over 1.5 goals and the h2h the same percentage. Will keep an eye on if this improves the strategy . Will update at the end of the month
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Tony-Hastie it's not a bad strategy so I wouldn't flip it but you could test that.
5 games today, 5 wins...not flip(ping) testing that
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@dave-tancock yeah they don't get scrapped just will save it and run through backtesting when it arrives
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@Martin maybe it’s better in the winter leagues but was thrown off this year due to the World Cup. Might be worth restarting when premier league restarts?
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@Tony-Hastie it's not a bad strategy so I wouldn't flip it but you could test that.
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@dave-tancock think the over 1.5 needs to be scrapped. Tomasz one has been fine if following the not trading end of season rules but no one follows the rules
Scrapped ...or flipped? Ive been listening to your podcasts
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@David-Linney said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Looking at testing the over 3.5 goals lay... So wanted to ask if i should be using over 3.5 goals then lay that selection or should it be under 3.5 goal and then lay that selection instead ?
If your strategy is over 3.5 goal lay, you are saying there will not be over 3.5 goals.
So you either lay the over 3.5 goals market or back the under 3.5 goals market. Both do the same thing. Just depends how you want to do it.
If you want a flat stake you bet £10 (for example) on U3.5 goals (odds will probably be 1.3-1.5 area). Or you lay O3.5 goals (odds probably 3.0-4.0 area). With your stake, you aim to have a liability of £10 (so bet will probably be between £2-3 depending on odds)
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Looking at testing the over 3.5 goals lay... So wanted to ask if i should be using over 3.5 goals then lay that selection or should it be under 3.5 goal and then lay that selection instead ?
