Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Has the Testing Sheet been updated recently? When i look at Tom 1.5 the last entry was in mid April.
don't trade end of season do I so won't update until summer leagues start cropping up more
I dont understand.
- I would have thought that a lot of members would have wanted to see how the strategy is doing.
- The Strategy was kept updated through the whole of Apr/May/Jun in 2022.
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@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
70% chance of a a goal between the 60th minute and full time. That’s all I’ve honed in on at the moment. Good point about the HT odds though
My stats have 81% chance of SHG.
I am on this now, and copied the selections from the master sheet linked in the original post in to my spread sheet and I’m back filling the goal data/times as i do on my other spreadsheets. When I’ve done it I’ll share a copy. Feb 2022 done and some Apr. I’ll do more tomorrow.
I should say, there were just a few selections on the master sheet that took odds higher than 3.5 which i have excluded as i strictly trade at 3.5 or below on the strategy and that’s what I’ve tracked myself and what i wanted to back test for continuity.
The Kolubara match today was 1.67 on the next goal at 60 mins
Would be happy to see a copy of the spreadsheet once complete if your willing to share @Chris-King .
Brazil Serie B had some extreamly tasty odds last season, will be keeping an eye once the season gets going, still a few weeks away though.
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:thumbs_up:
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@david-baker-0 I’m only testing with minor stakes right now so yes I am technically trading them even if it’s towards the end of the season but tread carefully as although this has been tested for 4 months we haven’t got to 100 trades yet so still in its infancy
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@john861 It’s the U3.5 backs strategy linked in this chat but I’ve changed the home and away filters so that they each need 85% plus of previous games of U3.5. The original version has them set at 80%.
Only tested since start of the year but promising so far
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@andy-donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Update on the U3.5 using 85% thresholds in the home/away filters.
Was a surprisingly good month in April when considering goal rates usually rise at this time of year.
April
32 trades
27 winners
84% SR
P/L + £43.30 (to £10 stakes)Overall 2023
97 trades
78 winners
80% SR
P/L +£74.21 (to £10 stakes)Nice results Andy.Are you trading every game that the filter suggests regardless or are you not trading the leagues coming to the end of the season?
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@andy-donnelly is this strategy been posted before? Sorry I might have missed it, have you got any forward testing numbers?
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Has the Testing Sheet been updated recently? When i look at Tom 1.5 the last entry was in mid April.
don't trade end of season do I so won't update until summer leagues start cropping up more
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@stuart-wallace-0 that strategy has taken an absolute battering in April, might not want to post results just yet maybe?
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Has the Testing Sheet been updated recently? When i look at Tom 1.5 the last entry was in mid April.
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Update on the U3.5 using 85% thresholds in the home/away filters.
Was a surprisingly good month in April when considering goal rates usually rise at this time of year.
April
32 trades
27 winners
84% SR
P/L + £43.30 (to £10 stakes)Overall 2023
97 trades
78 winners
80% SR
P/L +£74.21 (to £10 stakes) -
@fraser-cord said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
I've never tracked for goal times but have been noticing more and more that late goals going in. Not often you get a 0-0. This could definitely be an angle, back a goal after 60 mins, either reduce the loss or a bonus on top.
Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador always had good odds last season on Lay U1.5, rarely an early goal so could often enter 10 mins in at much better odds.I did track U3.5 in the summer league selections through Tomasz lays U1.5 and it was profitable (not enormously though). It totally bombed with the winter leagues.
Hopefully yes. The other day I noticed the strike rate at 60 mins and thought there must be some good prices going by the low 1.5 lay odds.
A fair few South American leagues have odds that seem too good to be true at times. I’m not sure why but my instinct tells me it’s general quality and unpredictability in the matches? Then sometimes i think, they’re still playing the same game as they do world over and there’s probably equivalent quality euro/winter leagues.
Shame about your under 3.5’s. I tracked that from matts under 2.5’s about a year ago and was looking really good through the winter but spring and summer brought many goals.
When have a strategy in mind and want to track it i almost always track the goal data as this can uncover things you never expected.
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@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
70% chance of a a goal between the 60th minute and full time. That’s all I’ve honed in on at the moment. Good point about the HT odds though
My stats have 81% chance of SHG.
I am on this now, and copied the selections from the master sheet linked in the original post in to my spread sheet and I’m back filling the goal data/times as i do on my other spreadsheets. When I’ve done it I’ll share a copy. Feb 2022 done and some Apr. I’ll do more tomorrow.
I should say, there were just a few selections on the master sheet that took odds higher than 3.5 which i have excluded as i strictly trade at 3.5 or below on the strategy and that’s what I’ve tracked myself and what i wanted to back test for continuity.
The Kolubara match today was 1.67 on the next goal at 60 mins
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@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
I've never tracked for goal times but have been noticing more and more that late goals going in. Not often you get a 0-0. This could definitely be an angle, back a goal after 60 mins, either reduce the loss or a bonus on top.
Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador always had good odds last season on Lay U1.5, rarely an early goal so could often enter 10 mins in at much better odds.I did track U3.5 in the summer league selections through Tomasz lays U1.5 and it was profitable (not enormously though). It totally bombed with the winter leagues.
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@ged-brown said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@john-malloy Exactly the same, upped my stakes at the beginning of the month, Sod's law! Just been having a look over my results only 1/6 of the Serbian matches won, if it hadn't been for this league it would only have been a small loss, not even a unit for me. Portugal can be tricky with this one as well. I'm not going to filter it out yet as you said it could be the relegation end of season thing, and may well be fine next season, but will keep an eye on it.
I have an unwritten rule to avoid Portugal, Serbia and French ligue 2. Historically all have only hit around 50% (or less). Serbia been really bad of late too.
End of season has an impact for sure but tracked Portugal and France 2 since October either through Martins spreadsheet or my own results.
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@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
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@john-malloy Exactly the same, upped my stakes at the beginning of the month, Sod's law! Just been having a look over my results only 1/6 of the Serbian matches won, if it hadn't been for this league it would only have been a small loss, not even a unit for me. Portugal can be tricky with this one as well. I'm not going to filter it out yet as you said it could be the relegation end of season thing, and may well be fine next season, but will keep an eye on it.
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Thomasz lays been struggling a little last months, just when I decided to up my stake with a bigger bank. Yippee.. anyway. I've noticed the Serbain league which has been not performing well it is in some kind if split phase for relegation, may be worth avoiding for the foreseeable..
