Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill Lay away had a rough start to September for me personally; I was about 18 points down at one stage but it has since recovered to about break even (possibly +1 or 2!) - just goes to show how volatile this strategy can be but the long-term results don't lie. Roll on back-testing!
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill how was the international break with it? I took a break from football during international break
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Mate ignore me.
A ) it was Lay the Away
B ) It's not actually that bad just had a bad few days I was looking at something else.
Too many late nights mate!!
For your interest I've done 129 bets since I started 103 wins
ROI 4.32
Strike rate 79.84
AV Odds of 4.25It's interesting to note its worst performance so far was during international breaks. But I'm only 129 bets in so it could be nothing
I've noted also quite a few losses have been red cards to the home team which is annoying. I should really go back and do the figures on that
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@Greg-Mitchell updates for midweek often happen at Tuesday lunchtimes due to it taking weekend games into the processing (Monday tends to be weekend fixtures round)
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@Giorgio They have all turned up now.
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@Greg-Mitchell same here filters not showing games for the next 5 days ,just few randoms games
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@Adam - I may be being thick, but is there a reason why none of the Championship or League 1 games appear in either the Stats or the Ratings for today?
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@Thomas-Francis-Gill I can't see any LTD strategies in the title post, might be losing my marbles though, could you quote me what I said?
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The one you've set as top performers in the Title post on here bud
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@Alex-Rendell nope not at all.. just that very simple filter based on thst simple reasoning..... I though if I was using what you would normally use in terms of filters fornthat, for example away teams winning % vs hone teams % I though the odds on the homes may be too high... so tried to think outside the box a little bit, but so far so good.. and that's just paper trading to exact £1 stakes, perhaps if compounding it may be higher at this point... but so far so good. Next I'll check the odds ranges to see if there is a sweetspot...
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@John-Malloy Sounds promising and quite interesting too! Are those the only filters you are using or is there more to it? Might follow along myself and see if there is anything that could be tweaked further. Cheers
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Good mornig guys,,,,,, I've been working on a few set and forgets, for a while now, and here are the results of one of them,,, its a draw no bet home lay,,, before I delve into the filters and reasons why I think they work, here's the numbers
matches 294
wins 109
draws 71
lossess 111
starting bank £100
current bank £124.35
so a 24% increase, so not so bad, ok so here's the theory behind my thinking, and why it may seem to be working, at least thus far,,,, ive chosen btts score home above 62% and btts above 62% away, and overall matches played more than 10, the reason for this is im thinking if they are both scoring then it should be competitive, so not necessarily that the away team will win, but give it a good go,, maybe draw,,, maybe even get beat,,, but with laying the home team, im hoping or thinking that they will be slightly under value, so when we do lose its not breaking the bank, but rather more or an acceptable blip, if we draw,, ok nothing lost, but the away win is winning us the full lay amount, its very very simple almost too simple but seems to be working,,, im next going to go through the odds rangers and see where this can be tightend up,,, a lot of very short odds on say under 1.5s usually win, so there may be a sweet spot with the odds range,,,, ill get on that at some stage, and get back with the data,,,, but so far,, well since Feb its going well,,,,
hope this is of use to someone:) -
@Thomas-Francis-Gill which LTD is that mate?
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LTD in set and forget is taking an absolute pummelling last two weeks.
Mentally difficult tk stay the course
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@dave-tancock need more data to do a full deep dive
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@Martin would you say leave it until the winter leagues start popping up in the selections?
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@Ged-Brown there was an issue with the shots stat so it meant selections didn't come through, it needs more testing really as it's no surprise that Brazil is low scoring, that said low scoring leagues were kind of why it worked originally.
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@Ged-Brown there was an issue with the shots stat so it meant selections didn't come through, it needs more testing really as it's no surprise that Brazil is low scoring, that said low scoring leagues were kind of why it worked originally.
