Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Quick questions just to test the temp, how everyone April going? Mine was flying and it’s gone from 7 pts up to 11 down. Just wondered if anyone else is struggling? I’ve done a deep dive of the strategies and I can’t see anything in particular that causing this, so could just be variance?
Shocking for the set and forgets the last week, hopefully this period will now end and go on a decent run of winning trades to hopefully retrieve the month.
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Quick questions just to test the temp, how everyone April going? Mine was flying and it’s gone from 7 pts up to 11 down. Just wondered if anyone else is struggling? I’ve done a deep dive of the strategies and I can’t see anything in particular that causing this, so could just be variance?
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@nick-allan worth monitoring April/May for these reasons, good point you make there.
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@james-everard said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
elo away lay is having a meltdown!!! such a strong strat the last 4 months thank god for Tom u1.5 lay, gutting to have been 8 points up and now back to scratch. Hating this weekend so im closing down the laptop and going to the gym.....if its open. I had no idea so many thing close on easter sunday
Yes same for me its been a disaster the last few days. So much so i will hold off trading this system for now. The gym is the best thing i find when you have a bad trading day , shame they are shut lol
its odd and thats why i want to continue and do a deeper dive at the end of the month, a few of the weekends elo away lay selections have been leagues where you have a promotions and relegation split so maybe that plays a factor? perhaps the home games have nothing to play for? although the one today the HT is in a relegation fight so you would have thought they would play better, but no lost 4-1
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@james-everard if the gym's shut I find a long solo walk helps just as well to clear the mind!
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@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
elo away lay is having a meltdown!!! such a strong strat the last 4 months thank god for Tom u1.5 lay, gutting to have been 8 points up and now back to scratch. Hating this weekend so im closing down the laptop and going to the gym.....if its open. I had no idea so many thing close on easter sunday
Yes same for me its been a disaster the last few days. So much so i will hold off trading this system for now. The gym is the best thing i find when you have a bad trading day , shame they are shut lol
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@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan This weeks Back Under 3.5 selections where we back the overs instead on Saturday had 2 selections that came up for me when I ran the filter.
One winner at 4.1 made it a profitable day.oh im going to be bugging you on the performance of that dont worry i have a spreadsheet now of trade ideas that BTC memebers have, as there are some crackers going around. Ive often said the forum in the best part of BTC, the community is king. And you can have a moan about your team as well
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@dave-tancock in the 4 months that i paper traded it, it never had 4 in a row, i dont know if the send of season is having an effect? some of gthe selections were in a relegartion or promotion fight but you would have thought that would make the HT play better? the ewlo ranking are a bit weird sometimes onme selction heas the HT who were 6th playing the AT that were the league leaders. Way too early to dump the strategy or take it back to testing may just be variance. It started very well this month as well with i think 6 or seven in a row winning
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@nick-allan This weeks Back Under 3.5 selections where we back the overs instead on Saturday had 2 selections that came up for me when I ran the filter.
One winner at 4.1 made it a profitable day. -
@nick-allan I was wondering if just me. What sort of losing runs can this strategy get. I’m on about 4 in a row now. Do people get much more than this?
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elo away lay is having a meltdown!!! such a strong strat the last 4 months thank god for Tom u1.5 lay, gutting to have been 8 points up and now back to scratch. Hating this weekend so im closing down the laptop and going to the gym.....if its open. I had no idea so many thing close on easter sunday
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@dave-tancock If your asking for the formula to count your winners and divide by trades I use this =SUBTOTAL(9,I:I)/SUBTOTAL(9,J:J) For your own you would need to change the column letters to whatever columns you have your data in. Mine are in columns I and J I use the subtotal function as opposed to sum as it will only return a figure for data that is visible on the sheet. In other words if I have a sheet with 4 leagues on and I want to filter out league 4 to see how the other 3 leagues perform. Subtotal will give me the figure for the 3 visible leagues. Sum will still give you the figure including the hidden league. If this is what you were asking for then hope this helps
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Is there an easy way to work out strike rate. I know I could count winners and divide by the number of trades. But is there an easier way of doing this in excel ie =sum(something)
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It does include saturday games. I’ll take a look at the stats and see if there is any significance in my data to consider removing.
Just my opinion but not sure I believe in the Saturday curse, think it’s more to do with specific leagues that are underperforming that happen to have most of their games on Saturdays but happy to be proven wrong. Will check the data.
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@andy-donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Update on tracking the u3.5 with 85% for home and away previous matches:
March
16 trades
12 wins
75% SR
P/L £0.47 (to £10 stake)Overall for year so far
65 trades
51 wins
78% SR
P/L £34.40 (to £10 stake)Obviously still early days and needs more testing. An even month, but suffered a few very late goals that stopped it from being another profitable month
is this including saturday games andy? as i think you said you wont trade this day as teams seem to play better?
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@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan This is a new spread sheet to follow these and includes all the saturday results from Martins S&F Sheet
looking a good idea matey, get good odds on O3.5 backs so lower SR is available as you get the value. You idea is simple but most good strats are, that how tom u1.5 lay strat started
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Update on tracking the u3.5 with 85% for home and away previous matches:
March
16 trades
12 wins
75% SR
P/L £0.47 (to £10 stake)Overall for year so far
65 trades
51 wins
78% SR
P/L £34.40 (to £10 stake)Obviously still early days and needs more testing. An even month, but suffered a few very late goals that stopped it from being another profitable month
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Odd question. Martins over 1.5 goals if the odds are 1.36, would you request odds within the odds parameters or ignore it? Just seems strange requesting worse odds. For reference it’s the one that was sent out in todays daily email.
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@nick-allan This is a new spread sheet to follow these and includes all the saturday results from Martins S&F Sheet
