Set & Forget Football Strategies

@GregMitchell yes either this or do it for a while and work out the exact average odds of your selections (average odds in general don't help as your strategy is unlikely to throw up the higher odds games as often as the lower odds ones, therefore skewing the average higher than it really is)

@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@GregMitchell you aren't being thick, the problem is mathematically when you estimate the odds it has to be accurate. So what is probably happening is that on average the 1000 matches had odds below 1.30, therefore it wasn't profitable. Increasing the odds will remove more selections as even more matches would not have been 1.35 or above. so essentially without the odds it's really hard to know if a strategy is any good.
I did a podcast on this recently which is well worth a listen:
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/14785436betfairstrategystrikeratesareuseless.mp3?download=trueDefinitely Food for Thought, so how do you go about first choosing a strategy without the backtesting odds? Say you had a filter that had no odds restrictions, do you monitor/paper trade/small stake it for every selection and then when you have enough results, review the odds to see if its feasible?

@GREGORIOSKARASHIALIS I do both to suit all audiences

@MattWood said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin Thanks for the link. Just listened to it and added some claculations into my data which has really thrown up some interesting information and made me think about things a little differently.
Great to hear that, that's what it's all about getting the idea juices flowing!

@GregMitchell you aren't being thick, the problem is mathematically when you estimate the odds it has to be accurate. So what is probably happening is that on average the 1000 matches had odds below 1.30, therefore it wasn't profitable. Increasing the odds will remove more selections as even more matches would not have been 1.35 or above. so essentially without the odds it's really hard to know if a strategy is any good.
I did a podcast on this recently which is well worth a listen:
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1516057/14785436betfairstrategystrikeratesareuseless.mp3?download=true 
@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@GregMitchell were you testing matches where the games had 1.30+ odds? If not the testing is pretty void as lots of games are lower than 1.3 at HT.
Well no, had no odds restriction on the test, and hence my question. If you set the odds at 1.3 for the test selections, the strike rate goes down to 78%, so you then have to set the odds to 1.35, which means the strike rate goes down again, so you adjust the odds and so on an so on.
I may be being thick, it has been known...

@GregMitchell were you testing matches where the games had 1.30+ odds? If not the testing is pretty void as lots of games are lower than 1.3 at HT.

I may be being a bit daft, but here goes...
How does anybody deal with the circular conundrum of any strategy?
So, for example, you have a strategy for SHG, you monitor it for a while, after 1,000 selection it shows a strike rate of 81%. Which means to make any money on it. you need to be betting at odds of 1.3 or above.
So you put it into practice, and don't back anything less than 1.3, so only enter when the odds get to 1.3 anytime in the second half.
Because, there are goals scored before the odds get to 1.3, you miss some of the selections, takes the strike rate down to 78% and consequently it becomes a loss making strategy, so you increase the required odds to 1.35, which knocks out more selections which score before the odds get to 1.35, and so on and so on.

@AlexRendell said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin could you send me the most recent lay away spreadsheet please mate! Gonna go to town on it. Thank you
updated the one in the OP

@Martin could you send me the most recent lay away spreadsheet please mate! Gonna go to town on it. Thank you

@joshuaarmstrong usually tables will show what games matter but if in any doubt leave them alone soccerstats ones are good for it.

@Martin Ive almost got 3 months of data on the lay away strat i have been researching everygame in the morning on the shortlist and getting rid of any that dont meet any of my criteria i currently have 87 games 76 of them won and 11 lost odds between 3.7 and 5.8 so decently profitable but my question is now some leagues are almost hitting last 6 games in season how do i find the promotions and relegations? I saw its researched on wikipedia? Does anyone have some more information please? Can't seem to find it? Thanks

@ArranShackell 14pts up
1.0 is 56pts since I created 2.0 for comparison

@SimonBates leagues updated and new odds range 3.75.5