Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@dan-mackinnon Thanks for this, what period of time is this for out of interest?
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I went through the data for Martin's O1.5 and have listed the nations and leagues from least to most profitable. Just be aware that some nations/ leagues only have a handful of results.
I don't know how much use this is to anyone but it'll be fun to compare this with the football backtesting
Nations
-26.31 Italy
-24.64 England
-24.47 Denmark
-23.96 Spain
-18.18 Belgium
-17.16 Austria
-12.56 Australia
-10 Bolivia
-10 South Korea
-6.08 Scotland
3.04 Poland
5.05 China
6.44 Switzerland
15.55 Norway
20.97 USA
22.79 Croatia
24.58 Paraguay
25.39 Japan
28.34 Sweden
28.75 Germany
29.13 Turkey
38.01 Czech Republic
43.35 France
68.41 NetherlandsLeagues
-28.17 Spain Laliga
-26.31 Italy Serie A
-21.79 Denmark 1st Division
-21.24 England League One
-20 France Ligue 2
-19.64 England Premier League
-16.27 England Championship
-12.56 Australia A-league
-11.26 Germany Bundesliga
-11.1 Belgium Jupiler Pro League
-10 Austria 2. Liga
-10 Bolivia Division Profesional
-10 South Korea K League 1
-9.96 Poland Ekstraklasa
-7.3 Germany 2. Bundesliga
-7.16 Austria Bundesliga
-7.08 Belgium 1B Pro League
-6.08 Scotland Championship
-2.68 Denmark Superliga
1.79 Switzerland Super League
2.54 Norway Obos-ligaen
4.21 Spain Laliga2
4.34 Japan J2 League
4.65 Switzerland Challenge League
5.05 China Super League
5.77 Sweden Allsvenskan
7.91 Croatia 1. Hnl
13 Poland Division 1
13.01 Norway Eliteserien
14.88 Croatia HNL
20.97 USA Mls
21.05 Japan J1 League
22.57 Sweden Superettan
23.27 Netherlands Eredivisie
24.58 Paraguay Primera Division
29.13 Turkey Super Lig
32.51 England League Two
38.01 Czech Republic 1. Liga
45.14 Netherlands Eerste Divisie
47.31 Germany 3. Liga
63.35 France Ligue 1 -
@andy-donnelly League filtering is deffo a positive. I have 2 strategies running, Lay The Draw and Lay Over 3.5, prior to League filtering they were both at 81% Strike Rate. I started League filtering about 6 weeks ago, picking only matches where historically the League had a minimum of 80% Strike Rate for the relevant strategy. In that 6 weeks my strike rates have increased to 93% and 91% respectively.
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@dave-tancock I think league filtering is the answer. I’m also likely to have 3 loss making months in a row but it’s pretty small losses that could all be made up in a weekend. I did some league analysis and saw that the English league one had a woeful time at the start of the year, I believe that has now been removed from the filter but I’d be in a decent profit for this strategy if I hadn’t traded that league all year. Worth you reviewing the performance against leagues as you may spot something similar, that may not be a change to the strategy that hasn’t already been made but could increase your confidence in the strategy nonetheless if you can pinpoint trends in the losses
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@dave-tancock it’s had a rough run.
I can’t guarantee it will pick back up.
So really it’s up to you if you carry on with it.
If you wish to improve it maybe go through each match and think which ones you would trade?
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I feel like I’m missing something, I started in November using martins over 1.5 goals, I’ve yet to have a profitable month. November I was maybe to trigger happy. December/January I know we’re hit and miss for everyone. But last month was down 3-4 points and unless tomorrow does very well this month will be down a couple points as well. I only trade what appears on the software and is within the odds parameters, yet I’m down on the strategy each month when others are up. I know some of it will be things like time of day you look at the odds matcher etc. has anyone got any suggestions how to improve this, or is the general consensus that this is a poor run and it will pick up? Sorry for the whinge.
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@nick-allan hi nick im happy to get involved with a fhg thread don't mind setting one up or just posting here with ideas etc
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@nick-allan could just chat here?
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Are there any good FHG threads on the forum? i have a FHG strategy that I’m running and I’m looking for some ways to perfect it. If there isn’t a FHG thread would anyone be intrested in me starting one?
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@greg-mitchell cheers greg :thumbs_up:
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@nick-allan Correct
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@greg-mitchell said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan I am assuming that you mean for Month 2, 15 Selections £11 Profit and £165 Stake (15 Bets @ £11) so £11/£165 = 6.7% ROI
Overall would be £21 Profit, £265 Stake = 7.9% ROI
Ah haaaa think im there so you combined calculation is as follows:
Total profit (2 months) / Total staked (2 month) x 100 = ROI for the 2 months, is that right?
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I think that you will get different ROI based on the actual money staked versus basing the ROI on the stake being 1% of your bank.
Over a large set of figures the difference will be much smaller but over a small set the difference could be quite large.
You can play around with the numbers using this spreadsheet to get a feel for it or you could incorporate both calculations in your ownhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H5a1uLNSliArc8fDm_fpIpa1LEDsdxZPzSYTTtex9bI/edit?usp=sharing
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@nick-allan I am assuming that you mean for Month 2, 15 Selections £11 Profit and £165 Stake (15 Bets @ £11) so £11/£165 = 6.7% ROI
Overall would be £21 Profit, £265 Stake = 7.9% ROI
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@greg-mitchell ah i see so if i did ROI for each month and then i can do a calulations of oversall ROI based on the amount of selections per month.
so what would be the caluclation if i had the following:
Month One - 10 selections £10 Profit, £100 Stake = 10% ROI
Month Two - 15 selections £11 Profit, £110 Stake = 10% ROI -
@nick-allan No the ROI for both months is:
Month One - £10 Profit, £100 Stake = 10% ROI
Month Two - £11 Profit, £110 Stake = 10% ROIMonth One plus Month Two = £21 Profit, £210 Stake = 10%
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@martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan as Greg has said ROI is interest compared to stake so you would just make sure the total stake was correct in the excel sum
@Martin @Greg-Mitchell But if you increased the stake would that not alter the total ROI inaccurately?
So ROI is Profit divided by Total Stake (for Backs) or Total Liability (for Lays)
Say Jan your stake was £10, so if you had 10 Back Bets with a stake of £10 and made a profit of £10, your ROI would be £10 divided by (10 X £10) so 10%
In feb you wanted to increaser that to £11, would you just change the stake calculation?
Using the downloaded spreadsheet as an example , so you would just change the cell below to 11 instead of 10, is that right?
so if you had 10 Back Bets with a stake of £11 and made a profit of £11, your ROI would be £11 divided by (10 X £11) so 10%
Does that mean that ROI for both months is then 20%? -
@nick-allan as Greg has said ROI is interest compared to stake so you would just make sure the total stake was correct in the excel sum
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@nick-allan ROI is Profit divided by Total Stake (for Backs) or Total Liability (for Lays), so if you had 10 Back Bets with a stake of £10 and made a profit of £10, your ROI would be £10 divided by (10 X £10) which is 10%.
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Good morning guys, I have a question in regards to calculating ROI when your stakes change due to compounding. So say I have a Bank of £1000 pounds and I utilise 1% of that bank for every trade, so the stake would be £10 pounds per trade, let's say that month the strategy did particularly well and made £100.00 so the bank is now £1,100 pounds and the 1% is now going to be £11 per trade. How do I calculate the ROI if the stake changes? So the calculations that are on the football set and forget trading sheets all based on £10 stakes which is absolutely fine, but how would you go about calculating ROI if the stakes changed based on the performance of the strategy, if you see what I mean? Is it possible to do it? or would you have to calculate and ROI on a month by month basis based on a stake increasing or decreasing (this will be based on the amount in the bank and % you decide to trade with). Does that make sense?
