Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Fraser-cord I think 3.35 would be good value. All the ones that win are though!
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@Terry-Heller Yeh I wasn't sure how many games in they were when posting. But say it was more than 10 games in, that would be a value bet?
I tracked the Finnish league last summer and there was usually plenty of goals.
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@Fraser-cord On the Finland game it doesnt come up on my filter as the league doesnt have enough matches played yet. I have added it to my watch list though. 3.4 is available and 3.6 was the last price matched.
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@Terry-Heller I've just had a play with the filters like you suggested as a baseline. The FHG I'm fine with, just wanted to check the O1.5FHG.
I went for O1.5 FHG 40% as a baseline, and using your prices as a guide I picked O2.5 betfair odds to find games then check the O1.5 FHG prices manually?
Most are matching your examples, but 1 standing out in Finland, AC Oulu vs VPS, saying over 1.5 FHG 67%, and back odds are 3.35 for FH O1.5.
I presume that's real value? (need to check status of Finnish league 1st, just using as an example) -
@Terry-Heller Extremely helpful, thanks. Il need to get my spreadsheets sorted and organised like this. Both yourself and @Chris-King have put me to shame. Mine are exactly like my work desk, total chaos, but i understand whats going on.
Will aim to get mine collated so I can share too, currently I think FHG, SHG and O1.5 is my focus, so need to start recording goal times to make this really work properly.
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If you want to pick the bones out of the data i have collected so far this is the spreadsheet as it stands so far
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JhhPssnU8ZF0uY-e3soXmcOcbUk_Kcb5GbEkJWT0SEg/edit?usp=sharing
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@Fraser-cord The criteria I find most useful is Overall / HT O 0.5/ Odds/ equal 1.01 or greater
So say for example that value is 1.25 and the Betfair odds are pretty much the same I dont bet that game.
If the stats value was 1.11 then i would be happy to bet at 1.22 for 1 fhg.Early prices for the games today that I didnt bet on for O1.5 FHG were
Oss 2.28
Den Haag 2.32
Willem 11 2.2
Early price
Deinze 2.5
Wisla 3.15the two Israeli games I missed KO so didnt get to record those prices
Does that help? -
@Terry-Heller ok cool, thanks. What sort of criteria do you have in your filters? And roughly what price, im guessing above 2.0?
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@Fraser-cord You might look at 1.5 FHG as so far I have them at 45% over 200 games.
eg Todays picks were:
Yehuda Israel 3 FHG
Kfar Saba Israel 3 FHG
Willem 11 Neth NO BET NO VALUE 0 FHG
Deinze Belgium 2 FHG
Oss Neth NO BET NO VALUE 1 FHG
Den Haag Neth NO BET NO VALUE 2 FHG
Wisla Poland 2 FHGOnly the last one had a goal before 15 mins though
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@Terry-Heller Thanks, thats very helpful. So in theory if I'm going unmatched on one third of my trades at the time of 1st goal, cant imagine they will all still only have 1 goal by 70 mins to get matched again, and all will have a 2nd between 70 and FT.
Was just an idea, i think FHG and O1.5 can definitely be done together, but maybe not at the prices I like, more research required I think.
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@Fraser-cord On the games I select for FHG my records have 34% with a goal before 15 minutes
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@Craig-vaulks Makes sense. I use a slight adaptation of Tomasz U1.5 lays for my O1.5 trades and don't trade above 3.0 lay odds. My theory, as many of these games are low scoring, there is rarely an early goal. Will often get odds below 3.0 at K/O but if not I try and match in play (usually matched close to 10 mins in.)
However with the FHG selections there tend to be more early goals so this may not work for O1.5, could miss a lot of winners. I'm starting to record goal times to help get a balance.
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@Fraser-cord yeah they are similar odds at kick off, slightly lower odds for over 1.5 goals but as you say having filters that find fhg's will obviously increase the chances over 1.5 goals landing. I just need to finish off adding a few more results to my spreadsheet then I will try testing both markets with slightly smaller stakes see how it works out.
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@Craig-vaulks I think that makes sense, If the data shows profit. I'm currently looking at a mix of 1st half strats and many appear to show that O1.5 hits regularly. The odd case where no FHG but O1.5 or FHG but not 1.5. But in general if you get odds of 1.5, just need to hit 2 out of 3.
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@Craig-vaulks hmm I'd go with both if using sensible stakes, they make profit so why not.
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What are people's thoughts on trading multiple markets with the same filter? Does anyone do it? As I am thinking of trading the over 1.5 goals market alongside my FHG market. Just looking for any ideas of best way to do it, like split staking between them or if its worth doing at all. Any ideas welcome.
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@Chris-King spoke to @Adam and they will be added when we drop the backtesting, so not imminent but defo in the future
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@martin That would be brilliant if they could be. Thanks
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@fraser-cord Yeah my winnings are tested to 5% commission. I have changed my plan to the basic so any live trading is 2%. I tend to test to 5% commission to see if i can beat that rate, the theory being if i can then the strategy is just that bit more robust. It’s just a personal preference.
Nooo, i don’t use the sports book
