Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Lay the away team this weekend using odds between 2.3 and 5.8 every league included apart from china
14 points up off 33 selections
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@Steven-Fletcher mad how many more selections pop up during the day, I know I missed a few days as I was ill for part of the month, I'm guessing the odds not being formed on some of the markets mean the selections don't show as they will not have hit the target price range
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@Martin having reviewed my data this month i think one thing with these strategies that people may not take into consideration when looking at set and forget is timing. As football odds don't move as much as horse racing there doesn't seem much consideration into at what point people enter the trade.
I think in the past @Martin has said in videos that he tends to place these in the morning. Due to my style of trading i rarely have time in the mornings so instead like to set things up the night before and then use automation. As a result most of my trades are set to enter 10 minutes before kick off via a bot. The other change I've made as a result of how I trade these strategies is that I have removed the odds range from the BTC software and use the odds criteria in the bot to ensure that the potential selections fit the odds ranges. This is because often the markets haven't formed the night before and I would typically find I missed many of the selections that made it into the main google doc. I believe this is because the software goes on LTP so if there hasn't been trading they wont fall into the right odds range (not much of a surprise with markets sometimes 12-24 hours from kick off). This month my results for the over 3.5 lay were very different from Martin's.
The yellow entries on the right are the selections that mirror the test doc so you can see there are a number which didn't appear on the main doc. The leagues though (with the exception of an Austria game) are leagues not in the first few or last few matches and the odds are within the right range. One is up and one is down for the month
At the moment I'm only forward testing these but I think this illustrates what has been said countless times on the podcasts etc that this isn't a tipping service and you have to understand the strategies. I'm not overly concerned by my results as i feel that over time i will be getting value but I thought it was worth posting this. It's quite a difference and its something people may not have considered before
It definitely supports what @Ryan is always saying about how no one can tell you what is the best strategy for you to trade. You have to try it and understand what works for you with how you want to do it. If the trend continues for a few months I may decide that this strategy isn't one that works well the night before and doesn't work for me at the moment.
edited as my original screen shot didnt have the odds for my testing
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@Martin in reagrds to the lay away strat
Graph of lay stakes to £10 since 4th June. So far really steady. Brazil (B and C mainly) is the league that is down but it's a small sample.
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@Martin Do you mean the ELO strategy that's in the email? That's lost 4 out of the last 5, I think (though I've only monitored it for the past week). Good to know it's more reliable than that if so! Or is there another one that's not sent out?
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Has anyone tried testing the lay over 3.5 goals market, by adding a cash out in play. For example backing under 3.5 goals at odds of 2 then adding a lay bet in play at say odds of 5.
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@dave-tancock aces!
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@Martin £20 from £1 stakes last month hopefully it continues
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@Adam-Jones problem with this is your Wins would be much smaller, but you would still have losses!
Its currently doing well in the long term so tinkering could lose money, BUT, I look forward to your testing results. -
Hey there, with the set and forget strategies can they be done on every soccer game as they are in the required odds range? Say for the under 1.5 lays can I put that strategy on every game as long as it is under 3.5 odds? I know you guys send out selections everyday on email but there seem to be a lot more games that meet the criteria.
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@Adam-Jones said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Martin I realise this is a set and forget thread but I’m curious. Has anyone tried trading the Tomasz Under 1.5 Goals - Lays selections? Green up after 1 goal and take the loss on 70 mins if no goal? Very quick look back over the result’s spreadsheet, the matches ending in a loss due to a single goal would be profitable and those ending in a loss because of a 0-0 result would be less of a loss.
New to this so I may well be way off but thought I’d ask.
There isn't the data that you would need to judge this in the spreadsheet. Goal times would be pretty crucial as to whether cashing out would be profitable.
One way to test this going forward would be to use an automated trading software in simulation mode. Then you could compare the theory against the actual results.
It's always good to be thinking of options though.
Good luck -
@Adam-Jones makes sense, I haven't tried it but should help the strike rate. Only thing is average profit on the winners would be lower.
