Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Martin with the league position I like to see a clear gap between the teams….ideally 4/5 positions min depending on the size of the league.If the teams are next to each other I tend not to trade as I feel they are both evenly matched and tend too cancel each other out.
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@Martin I can only really speak about this one Martin as this is only set and forget strategy I look at each match.I suppose it’s a more of a “trading” approach than a true set and forget.
I have used the league position criteria to my ltd trading and although I haven’t got any concrete records it makes me more confident in a trade. -
@Andy-Donnelly Hi Andy I have been doing something similar with the lay away.My filter is set to 2.3 average points and am looking at each match (ie non favourite,min/max odds and league position). It’s been going well so far and am in profit by 14 pts since the middle of July.
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@joshua-armstrong what leagues have hit you this month? testing will give you the best answer to be honest, hard for me to say blind if it will work or not.
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@Martin ya good until I hit this month so was wondering if I should make it longer
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@joshua-armstrong how has it been working so far?
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Thought I’d share an update on how the lay away strategy is working for me now that I’m 4 weeks in.
Total trades - 140
Total winning trades - 104
SR - 74%
P/L - + £10 (using £10 stakes)Summary, it might sound like poor profit but considering this includes a terrible weekend a few weeks back, quite happy with the bounce back.
I have been looking at whether restricting selections to have a home pts total of 2.25 or better improves things and across this albeit small sample size it does look promising:
Total trades (2.25 home pts or better) - 81
Total winning trades - 63
SR - 77%
P/L - +£135Having said the above in recent weeks I have seen a lot of promising trades that would get left behind if filtering out those that at lower than 2.25. So now currently operating using the below parameters.
2-2.24 = Will do extra due diligence prior to placing the trade. If any red flags appear in recent form of home or away team and/or if league position of away team is significantly higher than home team, will not trade.
2.25+ = Will do some due diligence but will generally trade providing within odds range.
The above approach seems to be working nicely so far. Interested to hear feedback on anyone who has been running this for a lot longer than me.
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@Martin I know that this is a set and forget thread and Lay Away is a set and forget strategy but after making a good profit over the weekend using it and to be honest sweating most of the bets. LOL. I know stupid right? I was wondering if anyone has looked at cashing out when the away team scores first and whether it would increase the profit. I was also thinking about the time that the away team scored the first goal as if they score in the first half the cash out price is much better than a later 2nd half goal. I was thinking of taking the teams from the lay away strategy and following the results with the above criteria myself unless someone has already looked at that or there is away to incorperate it into a strategy in the software.
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Lay the away had a good weekend just gone. Everyone else get the same? Still tracking 2.25 as the home point parameter and that was £60 up to £10 stakes over the weekend.
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@Andy-Donnelly interesting. I though over 3.5 and under 1.5 goals had minimum number of games for current season filter which was why they have no selections at present
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@Paul-Donnelly If you are worried about lack of selections in a filter, suggest you make a clone of your chosen strategy and remove the following if they are in the filter settings:
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odds - odds sometimes won’t be available on betfair until much closer to match time
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shot stats - as mentioned by Adam recently there are some leagues where this info isn’t available currently so will mean selections don’t show
I’ve noticed recently that all my strategies that use shot stats have had very few selections recently. Particularly impacting the Brazilian leagues.
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@Paul-Donnelly it's deep in development hopefully get a beta ready fairly soon, no dates set yet though
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@Ryan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Paul-Donnelly what I like to do on the software as well is type the date in the bar where it says 'Fixture search' as that will show you all the games there are today, it's good to just double check that then you know what leagues actually have games today and can explain sometimes when theres no games meeting the criteria on my filters.
Hi Ryan, interesting thought. I took your advice and there are quite a lot of games tomorrow. But still no upcoming matches on the strategy. Should there be an Apply button, or Run button somewhere? I just cannot figure how to pick a strategy and make it "go"
